Though the three-day baseline has gone from bearish to neutral, the six-day baseline (i.e., the daily chart universal trend line) is still on a downward trajectory, plus the rate has come up against both statistical and temporal resistance. Consequently, I'm hoping to see EURAUD continue south until it hits, what is for me, a rather ambitious take-profit target.
Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
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Saturday, February 13, 2021
Over the past few weeks, different aspects of Numerical Price Prediction have led me to look at the system from Secret Sauce, Temporal, Structure-Based, and 24-Hour Market Cycle perspectives; and it appears this evolution is continuing in that I now wish to evaluate the fourteen currency pairs I follow in terms of a Holistic version of the system.
When it comes to USDCAD, the first thing I notice is that the pair has more-or-less been in consolidation since December 17, 2020. Consequently, I'm currently calculated buy and sell levels as follows:
At Friday's close, the rate looked to be bouncing off the two-hour baseline to resume heading south. But to be totally honest, I would much rather buy the pair if and when candlesticks begin painting above this measure and the baseline starts to hook to the north.
AUDJPY switched from neutral from January 18th to February 5th to bullish during the past five days. Consequently, I would love to buy the pair after being rejected anywhere within the region of 80.55 to 81.14, or even as low as 79.76.
Rather than being neutral, AUDUSD switched to bearish mid January, but it too became bullish during the last five days. Unlike AUDJPY however, this pair is seeing its eight hour price range turning over, and its 16-hour baseline almost registering as neutral. However, that still makes the pair a buy candidate if the rate is rejected anywhere within the region of 0.7679 to 0.7730.
CADJPY is bullish all the way! Under present conditions, it is simply a matter of waiting for the pair to turn north following the next leg down.
EURAUD is the reverse of CADJPY. So is EURGBP.
EURJPY is bullish all the way. Nonetheless, it would be difficult to trade because even the two-hour baseline is wavering. Consequently, I would recommend that I not try buying it until the two-hour baseline dips down below the five-hour baseline, which has been climbing steadily. Ideally, I would want to enter a long position if and when price is rejected somewhere near the 126.80 handle.
With respect to EURUSD, the three-day baseline is neutral, the 16-hour baseline is neutral, the eight-hour baseline is neutral, the four-hour price range is only slightly bearish, and the two-hour price range is bullish at the moment, though it has been wavering over the last three days of consolidation. So, you might try to short the pair if and when the two-hour baseline turns south, but I think it would be a much better idea to stay away from this pair for the time being.
The diagnoses for GBPJPY is the same as that for CADJPY, and ditto for GBPUSD and NZDJPY. NZDUSD is more-or-less the same, except that its three-day baseline is pretty much neutral.
USDCAD is essentially a mess, except that it has rather consistently turned north after reaching the lower region of the three-day price range. (Refer to the first forecast in this tread for more information.)
USDCHF might have bottomed out on Thursday and Friday. Refer to your "holistic" forecast model to perform a more detailed analysis. Generally speaking though, it probably looks more attractive as a buy candidate than as a prospective short position.
USDJPY might have bottomed out on Wednesday and Thursday. Consider re-entering another long position if and when the two-hour baseline resumes a northbound trajectory. (By the way, the pair has essentially been bullish since January 7th, and definitely since January 27th. It lost a lot of ground on Monday and Tuesday, but the three-day baseline is still bullish, which is all the more reason to enter a long position.)
Over the past few weeks, different aspects of Numerical Price Prediction have led me to look at the system from Secret Sauce, Temporal, Structure-Based, and 24-Hour Market Cycle perspectives; and it appears this evolution is continuing in that I now wish to evaluate the fourteen currency pairs I follow in terms of a Holistic version of the system.
When it comes to USDCAD, the first thing I notice is that the pair has more-or-less been in consolidation since December 17, 2020. Consequently, I'm currently calculated buy and sell levels as follows:
At Friday's close, the rate looked to be bouncing off the two-hour baseline to resume heading south. But to be totally honest, I would much rather buy the pair if and when candlesticks begin painting above this measure and the baseline starts to hook to the north.
AUDJPY switched from neutral from January 18th to February 5th to bullish during the past five days. Consequently, I would love to buy the pair after being rejected anywhere within the region of 80.55 to 81.14, or even as low as 79.76.
Rather than being neutral, AUDUSD switched to bearish mid January, but it too became bullish during the last five days. Unlike AUDJPY however, this pair is seeing its eight hour price range turning over, and its 16-hour baseline almost registering as neutral. However, that still makes the pair a buy candidate if the rate is rejected anywhere within the region of 0.7679 to 0.7730.
CADJPY is bullish all the way! Under present conditions, it is simply a matter of waiting for the pair to turn north following the next leg down.
EURAUD is the reverse of CADJPY. So is EURGBP.
EURJPY is bullish all the way. Nonetheless, it would be difficult to trade because even the two-hour baseline is wavering. Consequently, I would recommend that I not try buying it until the two-hour baseline dips down below the five-hour baseline, which has been climbing steadily. Ideally, I would want to enter a long position if and when price is rejected somewhere near the 126.80 handle.
With respect to EURUSD, the three-day baseline is neutral, the 16-hour baseline is neutral, the eight-hour baseline is neutral, the four-hour price range is only slightly bearish, and the two-hour price range is bullish at the moment, though it has been wavering over the last three days of consolidation. So, you might try to short the pair if and when the two-hour baseline turns south, but I think it would be a much better idea to stay away from this pair for the time being.
The diagnoses for GBPJPY is the same as that for CADJPY, and ditto for GBPUSD and NZDJPY. NZDUSD is more-or-less the same, except that its three-day baseline is pretty much neutral.
USDCAD is essentially a mess, except that it has rather consistently turned north after reaching the lower region of the three-day price range. (Refer to the first forecast in this tread for more information.)
USDCHF might have bottomed out on Thursday and Friday. Refer to your "holistic" forecast model to perform a more detailed analysis. Generally speaking though, it probably looks more attractive as a buy candidate than as a prospective short position.
USDJPY might have bottomed out on Wednesday and Thursday. Consider re-entering another long position if and when the two-hour baseline resumes a northbound trajectory. (By the way, the pair has essentially been bullish since January 7th, and definitely since January 27th. It lost a lot of ground on Monday and Tuesday, but the three-day baseline is still bullish, which is all the more reason to enter a long position.)
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Sunday, February 14, 2021
I just accidentally opened up a four-hour chart with the one-hour Numerical Price Prediction "holistic" configuration template, and if I am to believe my eyes, the exchange rates are generally limited by a 12-day price range, and the 12-day moving average can perhaps serve as a monthly baseline. Also, it looks as if recovery (reversals) from trajectories headed in a direction opposed to the slope of the 3-day baseline are confirmed by the 20-hour baseline.
So, I plan on evaluating the validity of these initial observations over the next few days and assessing whether they might be helpful when it comes to entering positions that lead to "massive" payoffs.
(By the way, from this alternative perspective, shorting EURUSD looks more attractive, because: (1) the monthly baseline ceased its upward progress two weeks ago; (2) the rate is currently positioned near the top of the three-day price range; and (3) the final three 4-hour candlesticks from last week all painted below the 20-hour baseline. These measures all suggest that EURUSD might be planning to head south on a longer-term basis.)
(It's also worth noting that USDJPY's monthly bias turned bullish two weeks ago, and the final six 4-hour candlestick from last week painted above the 20-hour baseline, so the pair might be headed a lot higher from where it is now—likewise USDCHF.)
I just accidentally opened up a four-hour chart with the one-hour Numerical Price Prediction "holistic" configuration template, and if I am to believe my eyes, the exchange rates are generally limited by a 12-day price range, and the 12-day moving average can perhaps serve as a monthly baseline. Also, it looks as if recovery (reversals) from trajectories headed in a direction opposed to the slope of the 3-day baseline are confirmed by the 20-hour baseline.
So, I plan on evaluating the validity of these initial observations over the next few days and assessing whether they might be helpful when it comes to entering positions that lead to "massive" payoffs.
(By the way, from this alternative perspective, shorting EURUSD looks more attractive, because: (1) the monthly baseline ceased its upward progress two weeks ago; (2) the rate is currently positioned near the top of the three-day price range; and (3) the final three 4-hour candlesticks from last week all painted below the 20-hour baseline. These measures all suggest that EURUSD might be planning to head south on a longer-term basis.)
(It's also worth noting that USDJPY's monthly bias turned bullish two weeks ago, and the final six 4-hour candlestick from last week painted above the 20-hour baseline, so the pair might be headed a lot higher from where it is now—likewise USDCHF.)
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On or around February 6, 2021, I recorded a video where I stated that I expected to see AUDUSD fall from the neighborhood of 0.7678. However, though the pair did in fact drop down from that level, it did not do so to anywhere near the extent I was expecting—only to about 0.7651, at which point, it reversed direction and headed north.
In analyzing why I had not anticipated this move, I discovered that my oversight might have been avoided had I plotted a monthly baseline on my charts—a measure included in a configuration I stumbled across just this morning, which I have labeled as the "holistic" version of Numerical Price Prediction. There is a decent chance that a monthly baseline would have alerted me to the fact that AUDUSD was due to resume the northbound trajectory it had initiated on November 3, 2020.
In analyzing why I had not anticipated this move, I discovered that my oversight might have been avoided had I plotted a monthly baseline on my charts—a measure included in a configuration I stumbled across just this morning, which I have labeled as the "holistic" version of Numerical Price Prediction. There is a decent chance that a monthly baseline would have alerted me to the fact that AUDUSD was due to resume the northbound trajectory it had initiated on November 3, 2020.
With Monday's price action being what it was, USDCHF does not appear to have bottomed out after all. It looks to have decided to turn down rather than up.
Though they have taken three or four days and rather indirect paths to do so, it looks to me as if EURUSD has finally committed to reversing south and USDCHF has finally resolved to turn north.
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Friday, February 26, 2021
USDCAD climbed much higher than I expected Thursday and Friday, so I zoomed out to a four-hour chart to get a more comprehensive picture of what was going on. Still dissatisfied, I zoomed out even more, to a daily chart, at which point, I began to envision a whole new configuration based on the recently birthed temporal baseline-support/resistance level focused version of the Numerical Price Prediction trading system.
I feel like this new setup shows enough promise for me to begin experimenting with its use as soon as the market opens next week. Theoretically, there should be certain times when I enter positions and remain in them for days, yielding quite sizable payouts. (The size of my account is now such that I should be able to hold simultaneous positions in as many of the fourteen pairs that I follow as I wish.)
This is brand new territory, so I don’t expect to be perfect right off the bat—it will be interesting to see how things go initially. If I don’t start analyzing and interpreting the charts as soon as I finish posting this entry, I’ll probably get started on it sometime tonight, but it might be a week or two before I know how well this will actually work...if at all.
USDCAD climbed much higher than I expected Thursday and Friday, so I zoomed out to a four-hour chart to get a more comprehensive picture of what was going on. Still dissatisfied, I zoomed out even more, to a daily chart, at which point, I began to envision a whole new configuration based on the recently birthed temporal baseline-support/resistance level focused version of the Numerical Price Prediction trading system.
I feel like this new setup shows enough promise for me to begin experimenting with its use as soon as the market opens next week. Theoretically, there should be certain times when I enter positions and remain in them for days, yielding quite sizable payouts. (The size of my account is now such that I should be able to hold simultaneous positions in as many of the fourteen pairs that I follow as I wish.)
This is brand new territory, so I don’t expect to be perfect right off the bat—it will be interesting to see how things go initially. If I don’t start analyzing and interpreting the charts as soon as I finish posting this entry, I’ll probably get started on it sometime tonight, but it might be a week or two before I know how well this will actually work...if at all.
USDCAD
Only the day-to-day baseline is bullish. The multi-day and yearly trends remain bearish, with temporal and statistical resistance calculated between 1.2763 to 1.2886. It would therefore seem to follow that if price is rejected in this region, theoretically, it should be possible for a trader to remain in a short position that is entered following the confirmation of a southbound reversal until and unless the newly descending leg southward comes to an end...
AUDJPY
The yearly trend has been bullish since last July, and the monthly trend since last November. Temporal support is calculated at 80.622. However, the region of statistical support begins at 81.54, only 50 or so pips away.
AUDUSD
This pair has been headed north since the beginning of November, though it took a break during most of January and the first part of this month. At 0.7696, the pair is already sitting on temporal and statistical support. So, enter a long position as soon as you get confirmation that the day-to-day trend is once again bullish.
EURAUD
The yearly baseline turned bearish last September, with the monthly trend rejoining the trip southward at the start of this month. Temporal and statistical resistance are calculated at 1.5707, just 50 or so pips away. So, if price is rejected in or near this region, enter a short position as soon as you get confirmation that the day-to-day trend is once again bearish.
EURUSD
The month-to-month trend is neutral/range bound, so the pair is probably a buy if it bounces off support anywhere between the region roughly defined between 1.1881 to 1.2023.
GBPUSD
The pair has been bullish for almost a whole year now (taking just three breaks along the way). Temporal support is calculated at 1.3774, so hypothetically, it still has plenty of room to fall before running into temporal/statistical pressure to turn north again.
NZDUSD
Temporal support is down around 0.7158, whereas statistical support begins at 0.7177.
USDCHF
Though it has been headed south ever since perhaps August of last year, USDCHF looks awful close to trying to initiate a wholesale reversal north. If the monthly trend remains bullish, you might want to try buying the pair on the next pullback, and then riding it north for some, most, or all of 2021.
USDJPY
The U.S. dollar-Japanese yen looks similar to USDCHF, except that the yearly baseline doesn't seem quite as ready to attempt to hook north yet.
Only the day-to-day baseline is bullish. The multi-day and yearly trends remain bearish, with temporal and statistical resistance calculated between 1.2763 to 1.2886. It would therefore seem to follow that if price is rejected in this region, theoretically, it should be possible for a trader to remain in a short position that is entered following the confirmation of a southbound reversal until and unless the newly descending leg southward comes to an end...
AUDJPY
The yearly trend has been bullish since last July, and the monthly trend since last November. Temporal support is calculated at 80.622. However, the region of statistical support begins at 81.54, only 50 or so pips away.
AUDUSD
This pair has been headed north since the beginning of November, though it took a break during most of January and the first part of this month. At 0.7696, the pair is already sitting on temporal and statistical support. So, enter a long position as soon as you get confirmation that the day-to-day trend is once again bullish.
EURAUD
The yearly baseline turned bearish last September, with the monthly trend rejoining the trip southward at the start of this month. Temporal and statistical resistance are calculated at 1.5707, just 50 or so pips away. So, if price is rejected in or near this region, enter a short position as soon as you get confirmation that the day-to-day trend is once again bearish.
EURUSD
The month-to-month trend is neutral/range bound, so the pair is probably a buy if it bounces off support anywhere between the region roughly defined between 1.1881 to 1.2023.
GBPUSD
The pair has been bullish for almost a whole year now (taking just three breaks along the way). Temporal support is calculated at 1.3774, so hypothetically, it still has plenty of room to fall before running into temporal/statistical pressure to turn north again.
NZDUSD
Temporal support is down around 0.7158, whereas statistical support begins at 0.7177.
USDCHF
Though it has been headed south ever since perhaps August of last year, USDCHF looks awful close to trying to initiate a wholesale reversal north. If the monthly trend remains bullish, you might want to try buying the pair on the next pullback, and then riding it north for some, most, or all of 2021.
USDJPY
The U.S. dollar-Japanese yen looks similar to USDCHF, except that the yearly baseline doesn't seem quite as ready to attempt to hook north yet.
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