Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
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The bounce???
Tuesday / March 2, 2021 / 7:20 PM PST
There’s no need to wait a week or two. I can already see the potential for this approach to be extremely effective:
In brief, the approach calls for trading in the same direction as the 36-, 12-, *6-, 3-, and 2-day trend lines, opting to enter positions as the 4-, 8-, 16-, and 24-hour baselines reverse direction from moving AGAINST the more prevailing trends to traversing WITH them.
I had some thoughts about all this which I recorded on Sunday via Post #409 in my Duxon’s Archive thread, but a number of those views have since changed, as indicated below…
Though there could be certain trades when there would be the option of remaining in particular positions for multiple days at a time, it’s not what I’m likely to do. The ebb and flow of price action simply does not recommend a buy-and-hold approach in my eyes.
In evaluating how to best ride such waves, I concluded that, for now at least, tracking pullbacks to 12-hour temporal support/resistance levels on 15-minute charts might be the best way to go.
As for my previous observations, my comment on Sunday about not being able to imagine where four-hour price range envelopes would fit in has now fallen by the wayside. Not only is this actually a very reliable measure in terms of discerning exactly where price is headed at the intraday level (as I already stated in relation to its corresponding baseline) contrary to my previous statement, it can also be extremely helpful in defining the full extent to which price can vary. All one needs do is plot a second set of bands at the outer boundary.
The eight-hour baseline continues to serve as the foundation on which the rest of the system is built, conveying the direction in which price is ultimately headed with the greatest amount of validity, but it may very well be that the sixteen-hour baseline is what confirms that a given currency pair has picked up a full head of steam following major trend reversals—with the forty- and seventy-minute baselines taking on special significance at the intraday level, and the twelve-day and thirty-six-day trends serving as key measures when moving up to position trading.
There’s no need to wait a week or two. I can already see the potential for this approach to be extremely effective:
In brief, the approach calls for trading in the same direction as the 36-, 12-, *6-, 3-, and 2-day trend lines, opting to enter positions as the 4-, 8-, 16-, and 24-hour baselines reverse direction from moving AGAINST the more prevailing trends to traversing WITH them.
I had some thoughts about all this which I recorded on Sunday via Post #409 in my Duxon’s Archive thread, but a number of those views have since changed, as indicated below…
Though there could be certain trades when there would be the option of remaining in particular positions for multiple days at a time, it’s not what I’m likely to do. The ebb and flow of price action simply does not recommend a buy-and-hold approach in my eyes.
In evaluating how to best ride such waves, I concluded that, for now at least, tracking pullbacks to 12-hour temporal support/resistance levels on 15-minute charts might be the best way to go.
As for my previous observations, my comment on Sunday about not being able to imagine where four-hour price range envelopes would fit in has now fallen by the wayside. Not only is this actually a very reliable measure in terms of discerning exactly where price is headed at the intraday level (as I already stated in relation to its corresponding baseline) contrary to my previous statement, it can also be extremely helpful in defining the full extent to which price can vary. All one needs do is plot a second set of bands at the outer boundary.
The eight-hour baseline continues to serve as the foundation on which the rest of the system is built, conveying the direction in which price is ultimately headed with the greatest amount of validity, but it may very well be that the sixteen-hour baseline is what confirms that a given currency pair has picked up a full head of steam following major trend reversals—with the forty- and seventy-minute baselines taking on special significance at the intraday level, and the twelve-day and thirty-six-day trends serving as key measures when moving up to position trading.
Saturday / March 6, 2021
"In evaluating how to best ride such waves, I concluded that, for now at least, tracking pullbacks to 12-hour temporal support/resistance levels, and occasionally 24-hour temporal support/resistance levels, on 15-minute charts might be the best way to go."
In evaluating weekly binary option candidates in my Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform thread, I noted that... "EURAUD and USDCAD are both structured to fall, but they were more-or-less that way all of last week, so they can't be trusted—not even if you try entering positions near the top of the daily and three-day price ranges."
But, in just now viewing the daily charts for the "Position Style Trading" version of Numerical Price Prediction, it appears that a possible answer to this problem is to purchase contracts as rates are being rejected at 12-day temporal support/resistance levels. I also noticed that rates tend to pull back, at the very least temporarily, when they separate themselves "too far" from the instantaneous (zero-lag) moving average. Consequently, when both of these situations occur simultaneously, the odds of successfully purchasing a Nadex weekly binary option contract become that much greater.
EURAUD Example:
In preparing for next week and evaluating a strategy for purchasing Nadex weekly binary options, my opinions remain unchanged from what I wrote on Tuesday (above) aside from the following...
"In evaluating how to best ride such waves, I concluded that, for now at least, tracking pullbacks to 12-hour temporal support/resistance levels, and occasionally 24-hour temporal support/resistance levels, on 15-minute charts might be the best way to go."
In evaluating weekly binary option candidates in my Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform thread, I noted that... "EURAUD and USDCAD are both structured to fall, but they were more-or-less that way all of last week, so they can't be trusted—not even if you try entering positions near the top of the daily and three-day price ranges."
But, in just now viewing the daily charts for the "Position Style Trading" version of Numerical Price Prediction, it appears that a possible answer to this problem is to purchase contracts as rates are being rejected at 12-day temporal support/resistance levels. I also noticed that rates tend to pull back, at the very least temporarily, when they separate themselves "too far" from the instantaneous (zero-lag) moving average. Consequently, when both of these situations occur simultaneously, the odds of successfully purchasing a Nadex weekly binary option contract become that much greater.
EURAUD Example:
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In Post #243 I typed the numeral six using bold print with an asterisk in front of it without any explanation. Obviously, I wanted to remind myself that I considered this to be a key/critical measure, but I chose not to explain why.
At this later date, I can't exactly say what I was thinking at the time, but at this point, there IS something about the six-day trend that I need to spell out explicitly with respect to purchasing Nadex weekly binary option contracts. So far, it looks like candlesticks NEVER breach the far side of the six-day price range when the six-day trend is evidencing clear bias—especially if it is in sync with the twelve-day trend.
If this hold true, and AUDUSD bounces off the 12-day temporal support level, if I buy an AUDUSD Nadex in-the-money weekly binary option call contract, it "should" still be in-the-money at expiry.
(P.S. I just remembered the reason for the asterisk. It's because the six-day trend constitutes the most accurate and valid actionable representation of where price is ultimately headed, from a swing trading perspective, without deceptive fluctuations.)
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And the eight-hour trend fills this role at the intraday level.
Tuesday / March 9, 2021
I extrapolated (translated) this setup from five minutes to one hour and it appears to fit real well...
From the Duxon's Archive thread:
More specifically, it looks like I will generally want to be trading in the direction of the six-hour slope, entering positions as candlesticks bounce off the five-hour price range following pullbacks in the 90-minute trend.
I extrapolated (translated) this setup from five minutes to one hour and it appears to fit real well...
From the Duxon's Archive thread:
More specifically, it looks like I will generally want to be trading in the direction of the six-hour slope, entering positions as candlesticks bounce off the five-hour price range following pullbacks in the 90-minute trend.
CORRECTION:
In any event, there are actually three different types of trades I might opt to take advantage of rather than just one...
The above doesn't really make much sense. I think I was probably supposed to type "eight-hour slope."
In any event, there are actually three different types of trades I might opt to take advantage of rather than just one...
- Trade in the direction of the six-day slope, entering positions as candlesticks bounce off of 2-day/12-day temporal support/resistance following pullbacks in the 4-hour/8-hour trends.
- Trade in the direction of the eight-hour slope, entering positions as candlesticks bounce off of five-hour statistical support/resistance and/or 12-/24-hour temporal support resistance following pullbacks in the 90-minute/2-hour trends.
- Trade in the direction of the 90-minute/2-hour slopes, entering positions as candlesticks bounce off of 20-/40-minute temporal support/resistance following pullbacks in the 40-minute trend.