Other pairs (in addition to AUDUSD) decided to reverse direction at the same time, such as AUDPY, NZDJPY and NZDUSD...
Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
- Thread starter expiated
- Start date
It looks to me like the "big boys" spent all day Friday setting things up for next week.
Friday / January 15, 2020 / 8:55 p.m. PST
So, morphing the Secret Sauce, Touch, and Structure-based tactics all into one integrated methodology is what I hope to begin doing, God willing, next week.
It's possible that the above-mentioned "structure-based" style of trading might indeed increase my average gain per trade. But, today's activity suggests to me that it should in no way change the mechanics of what I do—that the "touch" method I stumbled upon four or five days ago is by far the simplest/most effective technique for implementing the NPP system...
So, morphing the Secret Sauce, Touch, and Structure-based tactics all into one integrated methodology is what I hope to begin doing, God willing, next week.
Last edited:
I never got the okay to enter a position on Friday. However, I'm seeing enough at this time to go ahead and try to enter a long position right now (perhaps a bit prematurely) even though technically speaking, I do not yet have confirmation...
Even though my plan was to remain in these trades until I see a reversal in the four-hour baseline, I think wisdom demands I pocket the profit there now, while it is available, and then re-enter the positions to realize additional gains (if they pairs follow through) up until the exit reversal in sentiment actually occurs.
Saturday / January 23, 2021
Numerical Price Prediction Modification
Copyright © 2021 Fred Duckworth
I now regard the above opinion as false. Like the 72-hour baseline, the 16-hour baseline should NOT be regarded as an actionable measure in a practical sense in that it also evidences far too much lag. Rather, its usefulness is in referring to its associated price range envelope to gauge when the probability of there being a reversal in the intraday trend has become high enough to begin anticipating price rejection.
So in reality, the highest time frame that is of any actual use in helping decide in which direction to trade from a longer-term perspective is the 8-hour price flow and/or baseline, which should be used in conjunction with the 4-hour baseline in terms of the direction of their slopes and their positional relationships with one another.
However, for more immediate/finely tuned measures of price flow, one needs to examine/evaluate/analyze the two-hour and forty-minute baselines.
Numerical Price Prediction Modification
Copyright © 2021 Fred Duckworth
I now regard the above opinion as false. Like the 72-hour baseline, the 16-hour baseline should NOT be regarded as an actionable measure in a practical sense in that it also evidences far too much lag. Rather, its usefulness is in referring to its associated price range envelope to gauge when the probability of there being a reversal in the intraday trend has become high enough to begin anticipating price rejection.
So in reality, the highest time frame that is of any actual use in helping decide in which direction to trade from a longer-term perspective is the 8-hour price flow and/or baseline, which should be used in conjunction with the 4-hour baseline in terms of the direction of their slopes and their positional relationships with one another.
However, for more immediate/finely tuned measures of price flow, one needs to examine/evaluate/analyze the two-hour and forty-minute baselines.
I am experiencing a bit of a quandary here which I anticipate will be cleared up over the next couple of weeks or months.
Extending the principles of the recently formulated "compilation version" of NPP to an even wider ranging outlook, my one-hour charts suggest to me that pairs such as AUDUSD, for example, which has been climbing ever since November 3, 2020, are just about to bring, or have already brought, their most recent trips to an end...
On the on the hand, my daily chart, which also paints a picture of AUDUSD's steady climb since November 3, 2021, indicates that I should not regard this trip as having come to an end until and unless AUDUSD falls below 0.7659, and then remains there. But now that I have typed this out, I see that the discrepancy is only a difference of 0.7708 – 0.7659 ≈ 50 pips.
In the overall scheme of things, in looking at the big picture, I would have to say these two views are pretty much in agreement. So, I guess this doesn’t constitute such a quandary after all. So should I enter a short position following a pullback if and when the downturn develops and is confirmed, and then remain in the position for several weeks, until the descending leg is exhausted?
I think what I might do is pick just one of my three Forex accounts for this, and then evaluate how profitable this "buy-and-hold" approach ultimately turns out to be in comparison to day trading.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...
Based on temporal data and other factors, EURAUD appears to be nicely structured for a potential short position, so keep an eye on it for the trigger signal.
Extending the principles of the recently formulated "compilation version" of NPP to an even wider ranging outlook, my one-hour charts suggest to me that pairs such as AUDUSD, for example, which has been climbing ever since November 3, 2020, are just about to bring, or have already brought, their most recent trips to an end...
On the on the hand, my daily chart, which also paints a picture of AUDUSD's steady climb since November 3, 2021, indicates that I should not regard this trip as having come to an end until and unless AUDUSD falls below 0.7659, and then remains there. But now that I have typed this out, I see that the discrepancy is only a difference of 0.7708 – 0.7659 ≈ 50 pips.
In the overall scheme of things, in looking at the big picture, I would have to say these two views are pretty much in agreement. So, I guess this doesn’t constitute such a quandary after all. So should I enter a short position following a pullback if and when the downturn develops and is confirmed, and then remain in the position for several weeks, until the descending leg is exhausted?
I think what I might do is pick just one of my three Forex accounts for this, and then evaluate how profitable this "buy-and-hold" approach ultimately turns out to be in comparison to day trading.
ON ANOTHER NOTE...
Based on temporal data and other factors, EURAUD appears to be nicely structured for a potential short position, so keep an eye on it for the trigger signal.
Last edited:
In terms of "universal" sentiment, EURUSD switched from bullish to bearish on January 12, 2021. Nonetheless, it began riding temporal resistance north a day and a half before the end of the week, and was finally forced into consolidation the last 16 hours of trading on Friday. So, be prepared to enter a short position should you happen to get the trigger signal the first half of next week.
Sunday / January 24, 2021
And I suspect that when the slope of the three-day baseline and the slope of the daily chart universal trend line both share the same trajectory, I can be that much more confident that I have an accurate picture of the direction in which an asset is ultimately headed.
Continuing with the development of the "compilation version" of NPP, in addition to looking to the three-day simple moving average envelope for overall statistical support and resistance, I'm currently viewing the four-day temporal price range as a supplemental measure of the same, which is to say, of universal support and resistance where it makes sense to be on the alert for reversals in the intraday trend.
And I suspect that when the slope of the three-day baseline and the slope of the daily chart universal trend line both share the same trajectory, I can be that much more confident that I have an accurate picture of the direction in which an asset is ultimately headed.
Last edited: