Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

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Unless something goes terribly wrong in the next 27 minutes, this GBPJPY binary option contract should still be in-the-money at expiry. However, the trade would have been much more profitable had I purchased an out-of-the money contract with a strike price of 137.60 instead of an in-the-money contract with a strike price of 137.40.

So, if the next nine consecutive trades have a similar outcome, I will begin purchasing out-of-the-money contracts instead of in-the-money contracts.

With respect to the “Secret Sauce” method of trading the Numerical Price Prediction system, AUDUSD will have to drop down to at least 0.7524 before I will entertain the thought of possibly buying it. AUDJPY is in a similar situation.

CADJPY appears to have turned bearish, so I will consider selling it if it climbs up to 81.20 or higher.

At 1.6145, EURAUD is a sell right now. But the structure is weak, meaning I would have to monitor it closely. However, I’m not going to do that, so I’ll pass.

EURGBP “kind of” still looks bullish. Baseline support is at 0.9078. Primary temporal support is at 0.9048 and secondary temporal support is at 0.8981. EURUSD is definitely still bullish. Baseline support is at 1.2159. Primary temporal support is at 1.2127 and secondary temporal support is at 1.2056.

EURJPY's universal baseline is still flat. GBPJPY and GBPUSD are more-or-less neutral as well.

I’ll have to watch NZDJPY to determine whether it is in the initial stages of turning bearish. NZDUSD is still bullish, with baseline support at 0.7082. Both primary and secondary temporal support are at 0.7001.

I’ll have to watch USDCAD to determine whether it is in the initial stages of turning bullish. USDCHF is still bearish, but looks like it is losing momentum. USDJPY is also still bearish. But to me, the pair is lacking in conviction, so I have no interest in trading it.

 

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Tuesday / December 22, 2020 / 3:00 PM PST

With respect to the “Secret Sauce” method of trading the Numerical Price Prediction system, AUDUSD is currently below baseline support, which is now up at 0.7533, but has yet to reach primary temporal support at 0.7462. Secondary temporal support is down at 0.7399.

AUDJPY is also below baseline support at 78.16, with primary temporal support down at 77.48, and secondary temporal support at 77.06.

CADJPY has indeed turned bearish, and has made contact with secondary temporal support at 80.13 at least twice now, but has het to show an inclination to pull back (i.e., up).

EURJPY's universal baseline continues to be flat. The pair hit primary temporal support when it reached 125.95. Secondary temporal support is at 125.67.

EURUSD has to come down about another 35 pips to reach primary temporal support. At 1.2163, it is presently at baseline support.

UPDATE: EURUSD looks to me like it is attempting to turn north. So, I'm going to try entering a long position and see if it follows through...

(Later I adjusted my stop loss to 1.2150.)

NZDJPY is near secondary temporal support at 72.70, but still looks like it might be trying to roll over.

As for NZDUSD, it is now well below baseline support up at 0.7082, but has yet to reach primary and secondary temporal support, which are both still down at 0.7001.

It turns out that USDCAD has indeed turned bullish. USDCHF looks as if it might be attempting to initiate a similar move itself.

UPDATE: EURJPY is in consolidation on my four-hour charts, but on a five-minute chart, it too looks like it wants to climb. So, I bought this pair as well.

 

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AUDUSD is currently below baseline support, which is now up at 0.7533, but has yet to reach primary temporal support at 0.7462. Secondary temporal support is down at 0.7399.

I don't see AUDUSD falling anymore. So, if I can catch the next pullback (touch and go) I'm going to try going long.

 

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EURJPY is in consolidation on my four-hour charts, but on a five-minute chart, it too looks like it wants to climb. So, I bought this pair as well.

At this point, the Euro pairs have not followed through. In fact EURJPY stopped me out and I had to reenter a long position in order to recoup about a third of my loss. I pocketed some profit with EURUSD, but then it stalled, so I lowered my new target to about 1.2200, which it came close to reaching three times (while I slept) but never hit. Now it is all the way down to around 1.2163, so I have moved my target again in an effort to at least break even, this time down to 1.2187.

AUDUSD did better, allowing me to pocket some profit twice (see above image).

UPDATE: Thankfully, I just now got out of my EURUSD position at about break even (i.e., with a tiny bit of profit).

2nd UPDATE: EURJPY shot up like at least 25 pips right at the open of the New York session. EURUSD and AUDUSD climbed quickly as well. Fortunately, I opted not to trade EURJPY in my Ally and Forex.com accounts, and therefore suffered no losses there...

Forex.com

 

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Wednesday / December 23, 2020 / 7:50 AM PST

USDCHF has been dropping ever since November 26th or thereabouts, all the way down from 0.9109. So, does it have plenty of room to climb now that it has turned bullish?

Before that, it fell from the 0.9981 neighborhood. In the last eighteen years, it has been this low only twice. The first time was back in 2007, and then it happened again in 2011. I calculate the bottom of the one-hour price range at 0.8855. So, I think I’ll enter a long position with my stop loss at 0.8850, and if I don’t get stopped out, I’ll try to just ignore this trade until the universal baseline turns bearish again, and see how much of a return I’m able to garner, if any.

UPDATE: USDCHF suddenly "popped," so I just had to go ahead and lock in a little bit of profit right now for a nice little haul for the day (given that I am trading just 0.01-sized Lots). But, I reentered the position and am back in the trade for the long run according to my original plan...

 

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Wednesday / December 23, 2020 / 12:45 PM PST

Post #183 in my Duxon's Archive thread (November 25, 2020) stated that "a month or two ago I had sort of a battle going on as to whether I would regard four hours or eight hours as the backbone of my system. But now, I think it kind of depends on the perspective being used. Presently, I am using NPP for trading Nadex derivatives, and in this context, I think eight hours is more appropriate, with the intraday direction being more-or-less conveyed by the 20-, 40-, and 70-minute baselines."

However, in Post #184, instead of placing the emphasis on eight hours and the 20-, 40-, and 70-minute baselines, I wrote that "to get the whole picture, I seem to have settled into a routine of noting (plotting) the flow of both the three- and eight-hour price ranges on my chart configurations, with the four-hour measurement having been pushed out entirely."

Then later, in Post #370, I again stated that "for tracking overall price flow and monitoring price ranges on one-hour charts and above, I need to be auditing the four- and eight-hour measurements—watching for reversals at four-hour support/resistance, and should this give way, at eight-hour support/resistance instead."

But, with the "Secret Sauce" methodology I started using this week (and perhaps part of last week) I've left eight hours out of the picture. As of today, the "ultimate direction" of price flow is defined by the universal baseline (the three-day moving average) in conjunction with the 16-hour baseline, with the four-hour price range envelope (and four-hour baseline) tracking the fluctuations within this general flow.

The eight-hour baseline becomes moot, because it is too sensitive to price fluctuations to help define the "ultimate direction" of price flow, yet too slow to track intraday price movement.

But then again, now that I've typed all this out, I realize that it is not supposed to track price movement. Posts #184 and #370 indicate that the corresponding envelope was being used to gauge statistical support/resistance. So, I guess I should go back to my "Secret Sauce" chart configurations now and see if plotting the eight-hour envelopes on the "graph" lends more clarity or simply adds clutter...

UPDATE: Mission accomplished. The eight-hour price range envelope from Posts #134 and #370 was replaced by the bold black "tube-looking" price range envelope in the above image, which does a "cleaner" job of gauging the same statistical support/resistance levels (in conjunction with the corresponding Donchian Channel).

P.S. So, it is now the three-hour measure that is left out of the picture. It is not needed because the two-hour baseline does a more accurate job of confirming the intraday trend, and the four- and eight-hour price range envelopes do a better job of defining statistical support/resistance levels.

 

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The two-hour baseline does a more accurate job of confirming the intraday trend.

Note to self: When it comes to the "Secret Sauce" version of Numerical Price Prediction, attention given to the 40-, 70-, and 90-minute baselines should be drastically reduced. Your main concern now starts with what is going on with the two-hour baseline. Pretty much the only role played by the lower-time-frame moving averages is where they are located in relation to it.

 

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Hopefully this will make dealing with the Cable pairs a little less volatile...

 

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Saturday / December 26, 2020

EURPY has gone absolutely nowhere during the last 15 days. If it continues to be range bound, it is a buy down around the 125.93 neighborhood and a sell up around 126.64.

AUDPY is still bullish. Baseline support is presently at 78.38 and primary temporal support is at 78.07. In the case of AUDUSD, baseline support is at 0.7563 and primary temporal support is at 0.7543. CADJPY ate up 20 hours of progress in the final 4 hours of trading last week, so the best opportunity to sell already past me by.

At 1.6046, it wouldn't be unreasonable to argue that EURAUD is a buy. However, this would be going against the trend. Baseline resistance is currently at 1.6106 and primary temporal resistance is up at 1.6147. EURGBP is also a buy at 0.8977. But as with EURAUD, there is no signal to do so yet.

EURUSD is still bullish, but it is in conflict, with the universal baseline rising, and the global baseline falling.

GBPJPY is directionless. If I were to try anything, it would be to sell with a take-profit target of 139.06. GBPUSD is still slightly bullish. Baseline support is currently at 1.3420 with additional support even lower, so it will have to come down quite a ways before it will be an attractive trade once again.

Like EURJPY, NZDJPY is going nowhere. On the other hand, primary temporal support for NZDUSD is at 0.7048.

I was waiting for the signal to buy USDCAD only to have it cover the same amount of distance in the last hour of trading as it did falling the twenty-three hours prior (leaving me in the dust). At the moment, I have no idea where the best entry level will be. The same is true of USDCHF, where I already pocketed some profit.

Like EURUSD, USDJPY is in conflict, with the universal baseline falling at the same time that the global baseline is rising.

 

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USDJPY is in conflict, with the universal baseline falling at the same time that the global baseline is rising.

Price has now fallen below the global baseline, so if the pair follows through, I calculate the most reasonable take-profit target at around 103.38, irregardless of the image below.

UPDATE: For some reason USDJPY suddenly popped to the downside, so I went ahead and pocketed a quick nine-pips worth of profit while it was available...

I will need the pair to evidence a pullback before I enter another short position.

EURUSD is still bullish, but it is in conflict, with the universal baseline rising, and the global baseline falling.

I should have bought EURUSD right here (see image below) when it pulled back after climbing above the global baseline, but I got wrapped up in a podcast and forgot all about trading.