This task is completed, though I will opt not to share any details here. I'll just note that I'm very thankful for the blessing this trading system has turned out to be for me.
Last edited:
Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
- Thread starter expiated
- Start date
Saturday / November 14, 2020
Notes to Self:
As of Friday's close...
AUDJPY's half-day baseline turned south at the end of Thursday, but the four-hour baseline turned north of Friday. So, exactly when and where you should enter positions will depend on the various price ranges and on the lower-time-frame moving averages.
AUDUSD is in the same situation except that Friday's turn north was sharper. As a result, you will probably be looking to enter long positions for the time being.
When it comes to CADJPY, the half-day and four-hour baselines are aligned in a downward trajectory—very bearish. The same is true of EURJPY at the moment, but in this case, the four-hour baseline looks kind of flaky.
EURAUD is the exact opposite of the above two Aussie pairs, and so is EURGBP.
EURUSD's half-day baseline turned north on Friday, with the four-hour baseline having done so on Thursday. So, the pair is very bullish.
Since you keep referring to the half-day and four-hour baselines, how about simply calling them the two primary baselines? When it comes to GBPJPY, they were at odds with one another at Friday's close, so trades will need to be made based on price ranges and the lower-time-frame moving averages, as is the case with GBPUSD.
NZDJPY's four-hour baseline is neutral, whereas the half-day baseline is bearish. When it comes to NZDUSD, the two primary baselines are completely at odds with one another. However, the slope of the four-hour baseline is rather sharp, so you are probably looking to enter long positions for the time being.
USDCAD is bullish with respect to the half-day sentiment, but more-or-less neutral (or just slightly bearish) in terms of the four-hour baseline.
USDCHF's two main baselines were aligned in a (rather messy) bearish sentiment for the last half of Friday, and USDJPY has been in the same situation since the start of Friday, though not so messy (i.e., very bearish).
CONCLUSION:
Look for opportunities to buy EURUSD on pullbacks, as well as to sell CADJPY and USDJPY. (Caveat: Intraday Forex trading is extremely dynamic, so this conclusion is subject to change whenever market conditions change.)
Notes to Self:
As of Friday's close...
AUDJPY's half-day baseline turned south at the end of Thursday, but the four-hour baseline turned north of Friday. So, exactly when and where you should enter positions will depend on the various price ranges and on the lower-time-frame moving averages.
AUDUSD is in the same situation except that Friday's turn north was sharper. As a result, you will probably be looking to enter long positions for the time being.
When it comes to CADJPY, the half-day and four-hour baselines are aligned in a downward trajectory—very bearish. The same is true of EURJPY at the moment, but in this case, the four-hour baseline looks kind of flaky.
EURAUD is the exact opposite of the above two Aussie pairs, and so is EURGBP.
EURUSD's half-day baseline turned north on Friday, with the four-hour baseline having done so on Thursday. So, the pair is very bullish.
Since you keep referring to the half-day and four-hour baselines, how about simply calling them the two primary baselines? When it comes to GBPJPY, they were at odds with one another at Friday's close, so trades will need to be made based on price ranges and the lower-time-frame moving averages, as is the case with GBPUSD.
NZDJPY's four-hour baseline is neutral, whereas the half-day baseline is bearish. When it comes to NZDUSD, the two primary baselines are completely at odds with one another. However, the slope of the four-hour baseline is rather sharp, so you are probably looking to enter long positions for the time being.
USDCAD is bullish with respect to the half-day sentiment, but more-or-less neutral (or just slightly bearish) in terms of the four-hour baseline.
USDCHF's two main baselines were aligned in a (rather messy) bearish sentiment for the last half of Friday, and USDJPY has been in the same situation since the start of Friday, though not so messy (i.e., very bearish).
CONCLUSION:
Look for opportunities to buy EURUSD on pullbacks, as well as to sell CADJPY and USDJPY. (Caveat: Intraday Forex trading is extremely dynamic, so this conclusion is subject to change whenever market conditions change.)
Last edited:
Wednesday / November 25, 2020
A month or two ago I had sort of a battle going on as to whether I would regard four hours or eight hours as the backbone of my system. But now, I think it kind of depends on the perspective being used. Presently, I am using NPP for trading Nadex derivatives, and in this context, I think eight hours is more appropriate, with the intraday direction being more-or-less conveyed by the 20-, 40-, and 70-minute baselines.
If I use this thread to record forecast related observations from time to time going forward, it will probably be from the above point of view.
A month or two ago I had sort of a battle going on as to whether I would regard four hours or eight hours as the backbone of my system. But now, I think it kind of depends on the perspective being used. Presently, I am using NPP for trading Nadex derivatives, and in this context, I think eight hours is more appropriate, with the intraday direction being more-or-less conveyed by the 20-, 40-, and 70-minute baselines.
If I use this thread to record forecast related observations from time to time going forward, it will probably be from the above point of view.
Friday, December 4, 2020
The battle between whether I would regard four hours or eight hours as the backbone of my system appears to have been resolved. To get the whole picture, I seem to have settled into a routine of noting (plotting) the flow of both the three- and eight-hour price ranges on my chart configurations, with the four-hour measurement having been pushed out entirely.
Sunday / December 6, 2020 / 2:40 PM PST
Notes to self…
These thoughts will only pertain to the last two weeks, since this is the most that fits in the open window of my 15-minute chart profile.
Overall, AUDJPY has been rising over the last couple of weeks. It went nowhere between November 25 and December 1, but turned bullish on December 2 and 3. On Friday, its sentiment switched to slightly bearish, but the time to enter a short position would have been at 77.43 or higher. At this point, it might make more sense to look to go long somewhere below 77.02 (or to scalp short positions following temporary pullbacks on the way down).
AUDUSD has been headed higher over the last two weeks. The ideal trade would be to go long somewhere around or below 0.7410.
CADJPY is very bullish, but at 81.40 it’s pushing the upper threshold of the price range to the limits.
EURAUD, GBPJPY and GBPUSD are nicely structured for an eventual turn north.
EURGBP, EURPY, NZDJPY, and NZDUSD turned slightly bearish on Friday. EURUSD might have done the same, but is currently structured for an eventual turn north, even if only temporary. The same might be true of NZDUSD.
USDCAD is very bearish, but at 1.2780 it’s pushing the lower threshold of the price range to the limits.
USDCHF has come to a fork in the road and needs to decide if it is going to turn north now or continue heading south.
On Friday, USDJPY turned bullish at the intraday level, and now needs to decide if it is going to pull the day-to-day bias into bullish territory as well, or resume its southbound trajectory.
Notes to self…
These thoughts will only pertain to the last two weeks, since this is the most that fits in the open window of my 15-minute chart profile.
Overall, AUDJPY has been rising over the last couple of weeks. It went nowhere between November 25 and December 1, but turned bullish on December 2 and 3. On Friday, its sentiment switched to slightly bearish, but the time to enter a short position would have been at 77.43 or higher. At this point, it might make more sense to look to go long somewhere below 77.02 (or to scalp short positions following temporary pullbacks on the way down).
AUDUSD has been headed higher over the last two weeks. The ideal trade would be to go long somewhere around or below 0.7410.
CADJPY is very bullish, but at 81.40 it’s pushing the upper threshold of the price range to the limits.
EURAUD, GBPJPY and GBPUSD are nicely structured for an eventual turn north.
EURGBP, EURPY, NZDJPY, and NZDUSD turned slightly bearish on Friday. EURUSD might have done the same, but is currently structured for an eventual turn north, even if only temporary. The same might be true of NZDUSD.
USDCAD is very bearish, but at 1.2780 it’s pushing the lower threshold of the price range to the limits.
USDCHF has come to a fork in the road and needs to decide if it is going to turn north now or continue heading south.
On Friday, USDJPY turned bullish at the intraday level, and now needs to decide if it is going to pull the day-to-day bias into bullish territory as well, or resume its southbound trajectory.
AUDJPY got turned around (turned north) at 77.27 and the day-to-day bias is now neutral, so this is not a very trade-worthy pair at the moment.
CADJPY pulled back to 81.30, but then turned north again. So, if fundamental factors are still having a significant impact, the pair might head a lot higher from there.
EURUSD got only as high as about 1.2136 before turning around (turning south), and presently doesn't seem inclined to look back any time soon.
Last edited:
...or not. It turns out that CADJPY is intraday bearish, but has been extremely schizophrenic in terms of the path it is taking southward.
Whether or not the pair ultimately pulls the day-to-day trend down as well (or resumes heading north) remains to be seen.
The above forecast was a good call (see below). But unfortunately, I wasn't awake that early this morning to take advantage of it...
EURUSD eventually DID look back somewhere around the 1.2090 handle. But, the pair is still day-to-day bearish. So, I'm short from approximately 1.2133, hoping it will at least return to its previous local low.
The above three pairs just did a great job of illustrating why I'm not a swing or position trader. I have to let the market tell me whether to enter positions and when to take profit because exchange rates just spend way too much of their time giving up ground and retracing where they've already been.
I'm hoping to see USDCHF eventually give me at least a few pips profit from this level...
Last edited:
Tuesday / December 8, 2020
I'm curious as to what will happen if I try entering positions as rates come out of a seventeen-day pullback in the monthly trend. So, with this in mind, I'm noting the following...
Who is on the way up?
AUDJPY as of last month, and yet, the pair is pretty much in the same zone as it was back in June.
AUDUSD as of last month, yet it is pretty much in the same region as it was back in September.
GBPJPY is up since March, but the pair often tests bouncing off lows before it finally commits/follows through.
GBPUSD is more-or-less the same as GBPJPY.
NZDJPY after going nowhere from June to November.
NZDUSD
Who is on the way down?
EURGBP was headed south since September, but is currently in the midst of a 17-day pullback (unless it is actually initiating a wholesale reversal north).
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
Who is more-or-less going nowhere?
CADJPY (since June)
EURAUD (since June)
EURJPY was neutral and range bound all of October and November. But, it is presently bouncing off a new 17-day high, so look to go long as soon as it bounces off the next 17-day low???
EURUSD is in the same situation as EURJPY.
I'm curious as to what will happen if I try entering positions as rates come out of a seventeen-day pullback in the monthly trend. So, with this in mind, I'm noting the following...
Who is on the way up?
AUDJPY as of last month, and yet, the pair is pretty much in the same zone as it was back in June.
AUDUSD as of last month, yet it is pretty much in the same region as it was back in September.
GBPJPY is up since March, but the pair often tests bouncing off lows before it finally commits/follows through.
GBPUSD is more-or-less the same as GBPJPY.
NZDJPY after going nowhere from June to November.
NZDUSD
Who is on the way down?
EURGBP was headed south since September, but is currently in the midst of a 17-day pullback (unless it is actually initiating a wholesale reversal north).
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
Who is more-or-less going nowhere?
CADJPY (since June)
EURAUD (since June)
EURJPY was neutral and range bound all of October and November. But, it is presently bouncing off a new 17-day high, so look to go long as soon as it bounces off the next 17-day low???
EURUSD is in the same situation as EURJPY.
Last edited:
The Cable pairs are a no-touch asset for me at the moment given all the Brexit business. Though the three-day trend is bullish, the day-to-day price flow on NZDUSD is currently neutral or perhaps even a bit bearish (no new highs in five days). However, the structure is otherwise good for a long position, so I'm going to go ahead and give it a shot right here anyway...