God willing, I'm opting to take profit now for about a 30-pip gain...
UPDATE: I managed to get out at around 0.7060...
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Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
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UPDATE: I managed to get out at around 0.7060...
Friday / December 11, 2020
GBPJPY and GBPUSD have pulled back to a 17-day low. So, on the chance that they might opt to continue climbing from the low established on September 22nd, I'm going to be watching (over the next few days) for indications that the time is right to enter a longer-term (for me) bullish position...
Saturday / December 12, 2020
It appears that I might be on the right track in how I am beginning to use NPP to make longer-term forecasts, so my plan is to attempt to continue developing this approach...
BULLISH PAIRS:
Look to buy these assets...
Look to buy these assets...
Look to sell these assets...
It appears that I might be on the right track in how I am beginning to use NPP to make longer-term forecasts, so my plan is to attempt to continue developing this approach...
BULLISH PAIRS:
Look to buy these assets...
- AUDJPY between 77.33 to 78.24
- AUDUSD between 0.7419 to 0.7511
- CADJPY between 81.11 to 81.39
- EURGBP between 0.9011 to 0.9113
Look to buy these assets...
- EURJPY between 125.62 to 125.94
- EURUSD between 1.2058 to 1.2107
- GBPJPY below 138.03
- GBPUSD below 1.3254
- NZDJPY between 73.07 to 73.61
- NZDUSD between 0.7011 to 0.7066
- USDJPY between 103.76 to 104.00
Look to sell these assets...
- EURAUD between 1.6131 to 1.6309
- USDCAD between 1.2771 to 1.2840
- USDCHF between 0.8895 to 0.8924
Not that it matters, seeing as how this is Saturday, and who knows what will happen when trading resumes late tomorrow afternoon. But, just to begin getting into the swing of things, here's an analysis based on the four-hour "based on the daily trend" chart configuration...
USDCHF has a bearish three-day baseline, so the rate should ultimately continue falling. Moreover, only the four-hour baseline is rising and the zero-lag moving average has flattened out, so it would make sense for the rate to resume dropping now. And finally, the twelve-hour price range suggests that the pair would be hard pressed to rise any higher than 0.8917, so a short position from 0.8895 with a 30-pip stop loss ought to result in a profitable trade that avoids being stopped out unnecessarily.
USDCHF has a bearish three-day baseline, so the rate should ultimately continue falling. Moreover, only the four-hour baseline is rising and the zero-lag moving average has flattened out, so it would make sense for the rate to resume dropping now. And finally, the twelve-hour price range suggests that the pair would be hard pressed to rise any higher than 0.8917, so a short position from 0.8895 with a 30-pip stop loss ought to result in a profitable trade that avoids being stopped out unnecessarily.
Monday / December 14, 2020 / 5:00 AM PST
So, exiting USDCHF at 0.8858 returned a 37-pip gain and resulted in an approximately 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio...
Monday / December 14, 2020 / 9:20 AM PST
I'm thinking that by reserving my trades for key levels identified on the higher time frame charts, as I have now begun to do, I might be able to grow my account size more quickly...
Sunday / December 20, 2020
Though a member of ET informed me (a couple of years ago) that there is no such thing as statistical support and resistance, I continue to use this concept (i.e., price ranges) even now, more-or-less successfully in my view.
That said, starting today I am likely to begin referring to another concept which I'm sure any number of more knowledgeable and experienced traders would tell me does not exist, and this is the idea of "temporal support and resistance."
In other words, not only do I believe there is a certain amount of distance beyond which exchange rates will typically resist separating themselves from key baselines/moving averages, it seems to me I have also observed that there is a certain amount of time beyond which exchange rates will typically resist advancing without deviation in one particular direction. Such limitations are what I am going to be calling temporal support and resistance.
And though CADJPY looks like it might be on the threshold of crossing over from bullish to bearish, it has also hit both the first and second (or primary and secondary) levels of "temporal support" on a newly configured four-hour NPP "secret sauce" chart I plan to begin experimenting with this week.
Moreover, I calculate major statistical support to currently be at 79.34. So, bearish or not, I will be waiting for an opportunity to buy the pair somewhere between that level and were it is now at 80.77 should I happen to observe signs of its (temporarily) turning north this week.
(P.S. I pasted the above image simply as a visual to make it easier for me to find this particular post should I wish to return to it at some point in the future.)
Though a member of ET informed me (a couple of years ago) that there is no such thing as statistical support and resistance, I continue to use this concept (i.e., price ranges) even now, more-or-less successfully in my view.
That said, starting today I am likely to begin referring to another concept which I'm sure any number of more knowledgeable and experienced traders would tell me does not exist, and this is the idea of "temporal support and resistance."
In other words, not only do I believe there is a certain amount of distance beyond which exchange rates will typically resist separating themselves from key baselines/moving averages, it seems to me I have also observed that there is a certain amount of time beyond which exchange rates will typically resist advancing without deviation in one particular direction. Such limitations are what I am going to be calling temporal support and resistance.
And though CADJPY looks like it might be on the threshold of crossing over from bullish to bearish, it has also hit both the first and second (or primary and secondary) levels of "temporal support" on a newly configured four-hour NPP "secret sauce" chart I plan to begin experimenting with this week.
Moreover, I calculate major statistical support to currently be at 79.34. So, bearish or not, I will be waiting for an opportunity to buy the pair somewhere between that level and were it is now at 80.77 should I happen to observe signs of its (temporarily) turning north this week.
(P.S. I pasted the above image simply as a visual to make it easier for me to find this particular post should I wish to return to it at some point in the future.)
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USDCAD has hit primary temporal resistance at 1.2781, so I will be watching for the right moment to sell this pair. I currently calculate secondary temporal resistance at 1.2868.
GBPUSD hit primary temporal support when it reached 1.3469, so I will be watching for the right moment to buy the pair (unless I stay away from it due to all the Brexit business) bearing in mind that secondary temporal support is presently way down at 1.3134.
At 0.9056, if EURGBP truly is switching from bullish to bearish, it could soon be a good time to sell, given that it is currently up against primary temporal resistance, though secondary temporal resistance is presently way up at 0.9228
Multiple pairs are setting up for position entries... AUDJPY is at primary temporal support with secondary temporal support approximately 140 pips below. However, I think I should regard the "universal baseline" as also serving to provide some amount of support, in which case, the pair might find it difficult to drop much farther beyond 78.00, just 30 pips below where it is now.
AUDUSD is in a similar situation. The universal baseline is at 0.7513 and secondary temporal support is currently at 0.7372. CADJPY will find primary statistical support at 79.33. Secondary temporal support for EURGBP is at 0.9228. EURJPY's universal baseline is now flat, so is the pair going to switch form bullish to bearish? The same with NZDJPY. The two other Cable pairs I follow are essentially flat as well. EURUSD is still bullish, with secondary temporal support at 1.2057. Ditto NZDJPY, with secondary temporal support at 0.7004.
USDCAD has reached secondary temporal resistance and the candlesticks are painting above the universal baseline, so the pair looks to be setting up quite nicely for a fall. (Primary statistical resistance is 240 pips above the current level, and other pairs are not worth mentioning at the moment.)
AUDUSD is in a similar situation. The universal baseline is at 0.7513 and secondary temporal support is currently at 0.7372. CADJPY will find primary statistical support at 79.33. Secondary temporal support for EURGBP is at 0.9228. EURJPY's universal baseline is now flat, so is the pair going to switch form bullish to bearish? The same with NZDJPY. The two other Cable pairs I follow are essentially flat as well. EURUSD is still bullish, with secondary temporal support at 1.2057. Ditto NZDJPY, with secondary temporal support at 0.7004.
USDCAD has reached secondary temporal resistance and the candlesticks are painting above the universal baseline, so the pair looks to be setting up quite nicely for a fall. (Primary statistical resistance is 240 pips above the current level, and other pairs are not worth mentioning at the moment.)
The typical reward-to-risk ratio on the in-the-money Nadex binary option contracts I purchase is usually around 15:85, like the AUDUSD call contract I bought this morning, which was still in-the-money at expiry. So this GBPJPY in-the-money contract purchased at the same time based on the above "Secret Sauce" version of NPP—given its 4:6 reward-to-risk ratio—is much more favorable...
The only thing is, I'm having to wait at least three times as long before I know if it will pay out or not. But still, this beats my OANDA account, where I might have to wait a whole day or two before the pair finally reaches its target. And even then, it's likely to return a maximum of ten bucks at the most, given that I purchased only 0.01 Lots.
The only thing is, I'm having to wait at least three times as long before I know if it will pay out or not. But still, this beats my OANDA account, where I might have to wait a whole day or two before the pair finally reaches its target. And even then, it's likely to return a maximum of ten bucks at the most, given that I purchased only 0.01 Lots.
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