Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

[expiated]

You just got a couple of more pips out of this top pair when everything seemed to be reversing north...

See how high it ultimately climbs before it reverses direction and heads south again.

(Note however that collecting on those two pips took two hours and three minutes!)

UPDATE: Based on the lower panel, it appears to me that EURUSD might be trying to initiate a southbound run. So, I'm going to see what happens if I enter a short position and shoot for ten pips profit...

 

[expiated]

UPDATE: Based on the lower panel, it appears to me that EURUSD might be trying to initiate a southbound run. So, I'm going to see what happens if I enter a short position and shoot for ten pips profit.

From 06:32 GMT to 07:23 EURUSD went virtually nowhere. By that time, the 30-minute baseline had flattened out to neutral. At 07:23 it dropped perhaps four or five pips and then pulled back some 12 minutes later. The time is now 07:45 GMT and the pair looks like it might take another stab at heading lower, so I'll be curious to see if it finally manages to hit my target.

 

[expiated]

So, what I need to do now (in my estimation) is gather my take on the interactions between the above moving averages and price ranges and now synthesize some kind of description of the relationships between all these factors that will lead to a clear understanding of when I should be satisfied with just a couple of pips profit and when I should instead shoot for gains of more like 10, 20 or even 30 pips or more.

EURUSD hit my 1.1808 target at 08:15 GMT, about an hour and 45 minutes after I entered the position, then fell another two pips to 1.1806 right after that, but then immediately pulled all the way back up to the 1.1813 neighborhood over the next twenty minutes, which means I’ll probably try to scalp at least another couple of pips from the pair.

Oops! It looks like I ended up setting my next take-profit target just one pip away. (I guess I don't know how to subtract.) Anyway, I feel like I'm starting to get a sense of how to go about integrating the bigger and smaller take-profit targets now, so I suppose I can go back to what I typed yesterday about ceasing to make predictions publicly and simply add to my private notes.

 

[expiated]

See how high it ultimately climbs before it reverses direction and heads south again.

Only another four pips (from post #141).

 

[expiated]

I feel like I'm starting to get a sense of how to go about integrating the bigger and smaller take-profit targets.

I've been using my culminating five-minute chart setup to practice scalping the market during hours of relative inactivity, but it can also be used to reap gains of 10, 20 or even 30 (or more) pips during periods of elevated liquidity/volatility.

 

[expiated]

I am no longer testing anything, so these notes are simply being recorded here for my convenience…

• Technically, USDJPY is still bearish, but the last two daily candlesticks have been green, and yesterday the pair essentially went nowhere.
• AUDJPY is technically bullish, but it went virtually nowhere yesterday as well. The same is true of AUDUSD.
• Over the last four days, CADJPY, which is technically bullish, has had difficulty remaining above 81.18.
• EURAUD is bearish, but yesterday and the previous two days before that, it was unable to crawl any lower than 1.6149.
• Watch for EURGBP to switch form a green daily candlestick to a red one, since the pair is bearish. Keep an eye on EURJPY as well, given that the pair is bullish, but closed below yesterday’s open. Ditto for EURUSD.
• GBPJPY and GBPUSD are starting the day red when green is what’s expected.
• Keep an eye on USDCAD given that the pair is bearish, but closed above yesterday’s open.
• As of today, USDCHF has officially switched from bearish to bullish. How long his will last however one can only wonder given that the pair has been on the decline since before April.

 

[expiated]

• Today USDJPY turned bullish.
• Today AUDJPY and AUDUSD turned bearish.
• CADJPY is bullish, but has been unable to remain above 81.47.
• EURAUD is bearish, but today's daily candlestick is currently green at 1.6157. The same is true of EURGBP.
• Today EURJPY has turned bearish. So has EURUSD.
• GBPJPY is still technically bullish, but the previous daily candlestick was red and so is today's at 141.55
• Today GBPUSD has turned bearish.
• NZDJPY is still bullish, but today's candlestick is currently red at 71.78. The same is true of NZDUSD at 0.6760.
• USDCAD is still bearish, but today's candlestick is currently green at 1.3061.
• USDCHF is still bullish.

 

[expiated]

Thursday / September 3, 2020 / 8:00 AM PST

It appears to me that EURGBP still has a bearish day-to-day bias, even though today's daily candlestick is solidly green. Given that the 30-minute baseline looks like it is hooking southward (or hinging downward) after price having climbed as high as 0.8923, I'm thinking the pair might be initiating a new downward leg.

So, my plan is to attempt to reap as much as 50 pips profit by selling the pair, though I am likely to settle for whatever is available from the trade (if anything) once the market "dies" near or after the close of the New York session.

 

[expiated]

It appears to me that EURGBP still has a bearish day-to-day bias, even though today's daily candlestick is solidly green. Given that the 30-minute baseline looks like it is hooking southward (or hinging downward) after price having climbed as high as 0.8923, I'm thinking the pair might be initiating a new downward leg. So, my plan is to attempt to reap as much as 50 pips profit by selling the pair, though I am likely to settle for whatever is available from the trade (if anything) once the market "dies" near or after the close of the New York session.

You were stopped out! The following is the strategy you should have used for this pair in this situation, though I should note that the hook that seemed to be forming in the 30-minute baseline kind of straightened out subsequently...

Evaluate the profitability of entering positions when there is a pullback withing the 30-minute price range envelope when both the 30-minute and 90-minute price range envelopes are sloping in the same direction and the 30-minute price range envelope is positioned in the corresponding half of the 90-minute price range envelope.

 

[expiated]

I am no longer testing anything, so these notes are simply being recorded here for my convenience…

As of Friday's close AUDJPY was registering a sell signal at 77.31. Other pairs in a similar situation (hooking downward above a bearish day-to-day baseline) include AUDUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY and NZPUSD.

Presently CADJPY is a buy anywhere between 80.32 to 80.84.

EURAUD registered a sell signal five hours before Friday's close, so a short position can be entered on the next pullback. EURGBP appears to be in a similar situation. That is to say, the day-to-day baseline might be about to hook downward to join a bearish weekly baseline.

USDCAD registered a sell signal six hours before Friday's close and might do so again if it manages to climb back up to that same neighborhood.

NOTE: A baseline was added to my daily charts that supposedly tracks the weekly flow of exchange rates. If it is valid, it would mean I could theoretically enter positions at carefully selected levels, and never have to worry about the haphazard, helter-skelter, zigzagging, seesawing ebb and flow of price action—exiting the positions with a healthy yield several days later when the day-to-day trend reverses direction as opposed settling for a mere 25-pips or so worth of profit.

However, the following is a simple idea that might be even better:

If the weekly baseline is sloping upward, enter long positions when price bounces off the bottom of the daily price range below the weekly baseline and exit when it hits the top of the daily price range OR when it begins to retreat. Do the opposite if the weekly baseline is sloping downward.

Note also that AUDJPY, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY and NZPUSD are in this second situation.