Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

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Saturday / August 22, 2020 / 1:00 PM PST

Sidewinder Jr. and Sidewinder Sr. were probably replaced by the rosy brown instantaneous moving average envelope (whose application is self-explanatory) and the dark slate gray bubble-like "Bubble Worm" because this is how the corresponding measure transferred from one-minute charts, where it did not have such a bubble-like appearance and where it was superior to the Sidewinders.

On the five-minute chart, the bubble worm is used to generate the lower-panel Relative Position Oscillator that is so useful in helping to determine binary option contract entry levels.

Five-minute "Bubble Worm" and corresponding lower-panel oscillator:

(By the way, a fleeting glance at the above chart just now gave me pause in that I just now noticed something which might serve as a sign of something else. However, I also just decided that, if this holds true, it is way too valuable an insight/realization/revelation to simply blab it here publicly via this post. So, take a screen shot of what you just wrote here and fill in the details where you're keeping notes on you laptop.)

Another possibility is to base your entries on reversals in the one-hour instantaneous MAs, but ONLY as verified by the average 3 × 2 confirmation moving average.

Going back into my old notes and comparing them with today's thoughts, I wondered how the moving average I came to regard as the 90-minute baseline on five-minute charts would compare with the average 3 × 20 confirmation moving average cited above, and as I suspected, they match up exactly.

At the time, I regarded this as a key measure. Given that I was independently wondering (again this morning) if this might be the case, there is all the more reason to evaluate the validity of using this MA as a benchmark for when and where to shoot for 10-, 20- or 30-pip trades/positions.

 

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On the five-minute chart, the bubble worm is used to generate the lower-panel Relative Position Oscillator that is so useful in helping to determine binary option contract entry levels.

Dude! Using the 15-minute baseline (and others) to establish the direction of the trend and then entering positions as dictated by pullbacks in the Bubble Worm Relative Position Oscillator looks to have some rather awesome potential for putting you in the driver's seat when it comes to pulling off trades with an extremely high success rate, and doing so on a very consistent basis.

You've got to try this out when you start trading again next week, bro!

 

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Saturday / August 22, 2020 / 8:00 PM PST

I was just going over all my old (most recent) five-minute chart configurations, including one named "THE TUBE RULES" and discovered that apparently, the original TUBE was not the 30-minute price range, but rather, was an envelope surrounding the orange moving average(s), making it the 15-minute price range. (Go figure!)

Basically, it surrounds, encapsulates or outlines the Bubble Worm, but without all the indentations and fluctuations. In other words, it doesn't really serve a purpose any longer. Especially since I view the fifteen-minute trend as as suffering from too frequent vacillations and find the 30-minute price range to be more valid or trustworthy in conveying where rates are ultimately headed in the short run.

Therefore, I will continue to call the 30-minute price range the TUBE, and simply refer to the original Tube as the 15-minute price range. (Or if at some point I feel the need to be more creative, I'll identify it as the "Snake" and describe it as engulfing the Bubble Worm.)

 

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Sunday / August 23, 2020 / 6:45 AM PST

These end-of-the week analyses are being carried out in more of a holistic fashion than in the past in the hopes of executing more 10-, 20- and 30-pip trades such as last night’s AUDJPY short position.

I now have the 15-, 30-, 60-, 90-, and 240-minute baselines all transferred down to the one-minute level, and as I would hope, the charts line up very nicely with the above-mentioned analyses.

Plotting the greenish turquoise TUBE (the adaptive 30-minute price range envelope) on one minute charts was eating up too much memory, so I had to substitute a graduated three-level simple moving average envelope in its place.

Plotting the bold black Outer Tube (the adaptive 60-minute price range envelope) on one minute charts was also eating up too much memory, so I had to substitute it with a comparable Dochian Channel envelope.

 

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LAZY TRADER:

I thought, "What if I simply entered positions in the direction of the four-hour trend and exited whenever it looked like an asset was reversing direction? How much would I potentially make on average, and how much would I typically lose when pairs turn against me?"

But as I began going through my watch list with this thought in mind, EURAUD threw the idea out of my head completely...

Without question, the pair's four-hour trend is bearish, but if I had entered a short position during the first half of Friday when the instantaneous moving averages turned south, if I weren't paying attention, I would have seen the rate climb all the way back up to 1.6485 after having crawled its way as low as 1.6412—giving up over 70 pips of profit!

So what if, instead of entering positions "whenever," I were to enter and exit when the TUBE and the Outer Tube flatten out?

If I had set my stop loss above the two flattened out adaptive moving average envelopes on Friday and entered a short position at around...say...1.6495, my potential loss would have only been a little over 20 pips, and even if I pocketed gains at a rather poorly selected level of 1.6465 (following a reversal in the TUBE's lower band and a flattening out in the bottom of the Outer Tube) I still would have pocketed maybe forty pips of profit!

However, setting the stop loss below the flattened out bottom of the outer tube for entering a long position (assuming I was willing to enter a position that was contrary to the four-hour sentiment/bias) would have called for much too costly a gap. But, if I executed the trade from what I call a "launch pad" (from the bottom of the TUBE) it would have resulted in a stop loss of approximately only 20 pips, which is doable.

So again, instead of entering positions "whenever," I want to try entering when the TUBE and the Outer Tube flatten out, and if the stop loss is going to be greater than 20 pips, waiting until rates make their way to a "launch pad," where honestly, the stop loss might even be set just a little beyond the TUBE itself rather than the Outer Tube, given that theoretically, if the rate does not reverse direction almost immediately, it means that the forecast was totally misguided, so there would be no harm in getting stopped out quickly, and in fact, in such a cases, this is probably desirable!


Sunday / August 23, 2020 / 4:20 PM PST

Be on the alert for "launchpad opportunities" with respect to buying...

• AUDJPY
• AUDUSD
• EURAUD
• EURJPY
• EURUSD

(GBPJPY and GBPUSD might soon follow.)

 

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Sunday / August 23, 2020 / 6:20 PM PST

AUDJPY’s four-hour baseline is not yet sloping north, and this is even more true of AUDUSD.

EURAUD’s price action looks rather constricted, as does EURUSD.

However, at 124.73, EURJPY is pulling back rather nicely. Though the candlesticks are painting below the 15-, 30-, 60- and 90-minute baselines (and just now dropped down to 124.70, below the 240-minute baseline as well!) the four-hour baseline is still angled upward. As long as it remains so, if the fifteen-minute adaptive price range envelope begins to hook upward, these two measures will override all the bearish signals.

The lower band of the Outer Tube is at 124.63 and is essentially flat, so if and when the TUBE and the fifteen-minute adaptive price range envelope turn north, it will be my signal to buy EURJPY with my stop loss slightly below 124.63 and my (very conservative) take-profit target at least 20-pips above my entry level (or more likely at about 124.95, the neighborhood of the most recent local high).

 

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Unlike a traditional Forex account, which will force me to wait who knows how long for just a couple of bucks profit, a legitimate binary option membership can offer me an $88.18 payout from the exact same setups/opportunities in just 20 minutes...

 

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I am out of the EURJPY position given that the four-hour bias is currently neutral and the lower-timeframe trendlines keep vacillating back and forth (up and down). So I am walking away with a 22ȼ profit (two pips) from OANDA after three hours as opposed to a $43.22 profit from Binary dot com after just twenty minutes...

UPDATE: Within the last hour EURJPY has climbed another ten pips, so the potential was there for five times the realized gain, but the pair was acting squirrelly, and better safe than sorry as far as I'm concerned.

 

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I debated buying EURJPY again when candlesticks began forming near a launch pad (see the red circle) but decide it would be better to wait for the 15-minute baseline (not pictured) to actually hook south first (it was neutral at the time) and then buy when it subsequently turned north—that I needed to be patient and wait for it to come closer to the lower band of the TUBE (at the arrow) and not "jump the gun," especially since it might even pull the TUBE down a bit, close to the the bottom of the Outer Tube.

But alas, it came no closer and chose to rise instead, climbing above my original take-profit target. However, I have to say, if I had it to do over, I think I would have to make all the same decisions out of an abundance of caution and perhaps even a little wisdom. (There will be other opportunities which will occur under more ideal circumstances.)

I just noticed however that this is the wrong pair. It is AUDJPY instead of EURJPY, but the two instruments behaved in virtually the same manner except that AUDJPY did come near enough to the launch pad to justify executing a trade about 14 candlesticks earlier whereas EURJPY never did

 

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I entered a long position after GBPJPY bounced off the first launch pad (the lower band of the TUBE), just as the candlesticks were clearing an upward hooking 15-minute baseline (not pictured). Unfortunately, the pair turned against me following the formation of the very next candlestick (see the first red circle).

I then committed the "cardinal sin" of lowering my stop loss, which I felt justified in doing because my forecast model places the level indicating that things have truly gone sour just slightly below the Outer Tube. As the model indicates might happen, the rate kept falling to this very level. (I would not have lowered my stop loss any farther.)

Given that GBPUSD was behaving in almost the exact same manner, my plan was to buy this second Cable Pair as well if and when the rates bounced off this key level to possibly finagle a bigger profit out of this unfortunate situation. Thanks be to God, that is exactly what happened, but unfortunately, it was at this very hour that I fell asleep for the night, so I never made that trade...

Since none of the other pairs I forecast to head north opted to again pull back to a launch pad at all (other than when AUDJPY did so in the image from the previous post) $1.10 was all I got out of the trade when the asset hit my take-profit target at the second red circle. (Also, just as I was falling asleep would have been the perfect time to purchase a third binary option call contract for this 24-hour market cycle for another $43.00 payout, but I was out like a light.)

The solution to none of the other pairs pulling back to a launch pad would have been to at least enter one or more long positions following a dive/plunge in the lower-panel Bubble Worm oscillator, but as I already indicated, I've been asleep the whole night, so this never happened.

This is also why I did not reenter a long position when GBPJPY once again pulled back to a launch pad at the third red circle.