Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
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At 2:30 GMT, there are a number of trade opportunities/setups I believe to be popping up. However, I've now seen enough to be satisfied that the more holistic, larger-payoff approach I wish to implement is probably just as valid and likely to enjoy the same high success rate as the somewhat scalping-like style I was using previously.
In other words, this journal has now validated the methodology for me, so it's time to stop making predictions publicly and simply make my forecasts privately...
In other words, this journal has now validated the methodology for me, so it's time to stop making predictions publicly and simply make my forecasts privately...
Dude! You completely forgot about this!!!
Evaluate whether it holds true right now and add this entry to your archive to maximize the chances of your running across it again should you ever forget about it in the future.
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Tuesday / August 25, 2020 / 1:15 AM PST
Also, in post #66 from my "Mis-colored Daily Candlesticks" thread, I noted that key to "perfecting" the way in which I applied the optimization of my chart configuration was recognizing that “the four-hour price range is the foundation on which price action is built. Not four-hour charts mind you, but four-hour price ranges.” I also stated that I would begin conceptualizing the four-hour price range as akin to the backbone of the Forex market, on which the rest of the “body” is constructed.
I see no reason to modify any of those statements. However, as of today, I would like to add that when it comes to forecasting where price is ultimately headed at the intraday level, the 90-minute baseline moving average fills this role much better than does the four-hour trend line given that the latter evidences far too much lag.
At this point, I am of a mind that the "Average 3 × 2 Confirmation Moving Average" (which I later determined is essentially identical to my 90-minute baseline) is superior to the four-hour instantaneous MA as a measure for detecting intraday reversals.
Also, in post #66 from my "Mis-colored Daily Candlesticks" thread, I noted that key to "perfecting" the way in which I applied the optimization of my chart configuration was recognizing that “the four-hour price range is the foundation on which price action is built. Not four-hour charts mind you, but four-hour price ranges.” I also stated that I would begin conceptualizing the four-hour price range as akin to the backbone of the Forex market, on which the rest of the “body” is constructed.
I see no reason to modify any of those statements. However, as of today, I would like to add that when it comes to forecasting where price is ultimately headed at the intraday level, the 90-minute baseline moving average fills this role much better than does the four-hour trend line given that the latter evidences far too much lag.
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Tuesday / August 25, 2020 / 7:30 AM PST
But, for the immediate direction of price action, I presently think the 30-minute baseline communicates this the best in that the fifteen-minute trend and its confirmation line experience insignificant fluctuations much too frequently.
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I wanted to compare the version of the lower panel pictured in the first post (entry #1) of my “Trading Economic News Releases” journal with this morning’s iteration to note the differences. (I was curious about their differences given how well the newly constructed panel is working.)
Previous Version:
Today's configuration:
In this version, not only does the lower panel greatly facilitate the decision-making process on where to enter positions and where to take profit, it also helps clarify in which direction rates are headed, reducing the need of attempting to decipher this information (the trend) from the main chart indicators.
Previous Version:
Today's configuration:
In this version, not only does the lower panel greatly facilitate the decision-making process on where to enter positions and where to take profit, it also helps clarify in which direction rates are headed, reducing the need of attempting to decipher this information (the trend) from the main chart indicators.
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A focus on becoming acutely aware of the dynamics between the 5-, 15-, 30-, 60-, 90- and 240-minute trend lines and the way they interact with the 15-, 30- and 60-minute price ranges has resulted in my once again executing a scalping style of trading...
So, what I need to do now (in my estimation) is gather my take on the interactions between the above moving averages and price ranges and now synthesize some kind of description of the relationships between all these factors that will lead to a clear understanding of when I should be satisfied with just a couple of pips profit and when I should instead shoot for gains of more like 10, 20 or even 30 pips or more.
COMING FULL CIRCLE...
This chart reconciles some of the original parameters I was using from when I first began developing my system back in November of 2015 (the Multiple Simple Moving Average Envelope or MS. MAE strategy) with the NPP system I’m using now.
It’s going to take me a while to memorize what each indicator is for, so I’m hoping that writing this description will help...
The outside upper and lower bands of the lower panel's Price Anomaly Channel define the extreme upper and lower boundaries of the intermediate intraday price range, which is monitored by the black oscillator.
The inner upper (dark green) and lower (dark red) bands of the Price Anomaly Channel define the more routine upper and lower boundaries of the intermediate intraday price range, which as just stated, is monitored by the black oscillator. If the black oscillator does not continue to advance beyond these inner levels, it is reasonable to anticipate at least a temporary (short-term) pullback in price action.
By the way, when the gray slope histogram is painting without interruption above the inner upper (dark green) band or below the inner lower (dark red) band of the Price Anomaly Channel, it suggests that the corresponding asset is trending supported by a significant amount of momentum. (This indicator is generated using the same measure as the black oscillator—or more specifically, using the 30-minute baseline. However, the black oscillator is slightly more sensitive to reversals in price action.)
The olive green oscillator conveys what I deem to be reversals in the shortest actionable trend. From my point of view, the absolute best time to enter a position, where the trade is almost guaranteed to be successful, is to do so when the olive green short-term trend reversal oscillator is forming a trough or crest on one half of the Price Anomaly Channel, and the gray longer-term trend histogram is painting beyond the inner band on the opposite half of the Price Anomaly Channel.
The orange (or salmon) oscillator simply monitors whether the short-term trend (but not as short as the olive green shortest-actionable trend) is bullish or bearish. It more-or-less does the same thing as the olive green reversal oscillator—but not exactly the same, and with somewhat less sensitivity to momentary/fleeting price fluctuations.
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Using the Launch Pad and 0.08% Deviation...
First of all, I would like you to note that a possible objective sign that activity is picking up is when you begin to get consecutive “Candlestick Strength” histogram bars above the 1.0 level.
Because the 30-minute trend was bullish and you got an upward hook in the shortest actionable trend line (not pictured), you entered a long position at the first arrow. You collected on a couple of pips profit. But then the short-term trend immediately reversed direction, so you were fortunate! (There was no follow through!)
You entered a long position a second time when the shortest actionable trend line hooked north again AND the candlesticks cleared all the other short-term trend lines (not pictured) at the second arrow, once again picking up a couple of pips profit.
But note…it would have been safer and you would have maximized your return had you waited for the candlesticks to drop below the upward sloping 30-minute baseline at 0.08% deviation and bounce off the base 31 launch pad at the red circle, setting your take-profit target above the 30-minute baseline at slightly below 0.08% deviation AND the base 31 landing site. This would have resulted in a gain of about 10 to 12 pips.
It would not have been safer in another sense however in that you would have been executing the trade based purely on structure without any confirmation, so you would have had to have simply accepted the risk of getting stopped out of the position if the pair chose not to behave as your forecast model suggested it would (i.e., had dropped below the launch pad or pushed it southward).
First of all, I would like you to note that a possible objective sign that activity is picking up is when you begin to get consecutive “Candlestick Strength” histogram bars above the 1.0 level.
Because the 30-minute trend was bullish and you got an upward hook in the shortest actionable trend line (not pictured), you entered a long position at the first arrow. You collected on a couple of pips profit. But then the short-term trend immediately reversed direction, so you were fortunate! (There was no follow through!)
You entered a long position a second time when the shortest actionable trend line hooked north again AND the candlesticks cleared all the other short-term trend lines (not pictured) at the second arrow, once again picking up a couple of pips profit.
But note…it would have been safer and you would have maximized your return had you waited for the candlesticks to drop below the upward sloping 30-minute baseline at 0.08% deviation and bounce off the base 31 launch pad at the red circle, setting your take-profit target above the 30-minute baseline at slightly below 0.08% deviation AND the base 31 landing site. This would have resulted in a gain of about 10 to 12 pips.
It would not have been safer in another sense however in that you would have been executing the trade based purely on structure without any confirmation, so you would have had to have simply accepted the risk of getting stopped out of the position if the pair chose not to behave as your forecast model suggested it would (i.e., had dropped below the launch pad or pushed it southward).
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