All the notes I write to myself over the next two to three days (and possibly beyond) will be trying to look at things from a more holistic point of view. So, starting with NZDUSD, it's pretty much gone nowhere over the last twelve days and its presently testing the lower half of the daily price range. So, if nothing changes, I would expect to see it climb from possibly as low as 0.6557 to as high as 0.6742 over the next week.
Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses
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I am looking to become ridiculously picky in terms of what setups I opt to trade, and to also increase the size of the return each trade generates. Hence, I am trying to look at the market more holistically...
The holistic five-minute chart is fundamentally the same as what I was using at the end of last week, but it arranges things such that the graphics look much more organized. (I would post an image, but I fear I would be revealing too much.)
Some of the things I find most striking from the end of the week are…
- CADPY has looked pretty dead for the last twelve or so hours.
- AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDJPY, and NZDUSD are, or have recently, taken breaks from their southbound trajectories, so hypothetically, they should at some point resume heading lower. However, pairs like AUDUSD, EURUSD, and NZDUSD have or will soon reach the bottom of their projected day ranges, so it would not be surprising to see them reverse direction upward. Consequently, their signals will need to be monitored very closely.
- USDCAD is in a similar situation, but in the reverse. It has taken a break from its northbound trajectory, so hypothetically, it should at some point resume heading higher.
- EURAUD and USDPY have also taken breaks from their northbound trajectories, so hypothetically, they should at some point resume heading higher as well.
- EURGBP is behaving sporadically, so I’m staying away from it for the time being.
- EURPY is showing signs of transitioning from bearish to bullish, and so is GBPJPY.
- And finally, USDCHF is showing signs of transitioning from bullish to bearish.
Friday, August 14, 2020
I’m not looking to learn anything anymore—just reading my charts as they are. Brad Gilbert thinks that USDCAD is the pair that has the clearest direction right now, but from my point of view, EURJPY and GBPJPY look better. However, I agree that a lot of the pairs have pretty much been going nowhere lately. AJ Monte says to be looking out for news coming out of Japan and China where tensions are rising. Other than that, I’m just going to be monitoring things on an intraday basis.
I’m not looking to learn anything anymore—just reading my charts as they are. Brad Gilbert thinks that USDCAD is the pair that has the clearest direction right now, but from my point of view, EURJPY and GBPJPY look better. However, I agree that a lot of the pairs have pretty much been going nowhere lately. AJ Monte says to be looking out for news coming out of Japan and China where tensions are rising. Other than that, I’m just going to be monitoring things on an intraday basis.
Why did the EURUSD trade work out well, but the USDCAD trade never followed through?
Note that at the time you entered these positions, you were looking at charts which you configured to make a point on a Do you day trade, swing trade or position trade Forex? thread rather a configuration like the blue trend line versions pictured below.
If you had consulted the blue trend line versions before pulling the trigger, you would have seen that the larger context in the case of EURUSD (on the left) had a bullish structure, whereas the larger context in the case of USDCAD had turned bearish. You should have known better than to have skipped such a step as this before making your final decisions.
Doing so would have warned you to sell rather than buy USCDAD (on the right) since it was "destined" to fail to follow through.
Friday / August 21, 2020 / 7:00 PM PST
AUDJPY’s day-to-day and four-hour sentiments are both bearish and the pair has been riding the day-to-day and four-hour support levels south for the past twelve hours. However, the hourly trend had been bullish for the past three hours, though in the last hour, price has begun to fall. The time to trade (short) this pair would have been seventeen hours ago, when a bullish four-hour trend reversed direction to align itself with the bearish day-to-day trend.
AUDUSD’ situation is similar to that of AUDJPY.
CADJPY is more or less neutral. If this does not change, the only real opportunities might be to buy the pair somewhere in the neighborhood of 79.79 or sell it somewhere around 80.44.
EURAUD’s day-to-day bias is more-or-less neutral. The four-hour trend is bearish, and the hourly trend just reversed from bullish to bearish. This suggests switching to lower timeframe charts and watching for sell opportunities.
EURGBP’s day-to-day bias is bearish, but the four-hour trend and hourly trends are bullish. This would suggest selling the pair if and when the four-hour trend turns south (and then shooting for a minimum of 30 pips profit).
EURJPY bounced off of day-to-day support nine hours ago. The day-to-day trend is bearish, but if the pair does not fall from 124.80, it will be an indication that the four-hour bias just switched from bearish to bullish (as the hourly sentiment has already been for the past nine hours) in which case, the intraday strategy would be to enter long positions until the one- and four-hour trends turn south once again.
EURUSD is in much the same situation as EURPY.
GBPJPY and GBPUSD are sitting on day-to-day support. All of the former’s trendlines are bearish and the same is true of the latter except that GBPUSD’s hourly trendline is currently neutral. Consequently, I would be inclined to buy the pairs if and when their one- and four-hour trendlines reverse north.
NZDJPY and NZDUSD have been in consolidation more-or-less over the last twenty-four hours.
USDCAD is sort of aimless; USDCHF has gone up, then down, then up, and might be on its way back down again; and the same might be true of USDJPY, though I would buy the latter two if their hourly trend lines opted to reverse direction to rejoin the four-hour trend heading north.
These end-of-the week analyses are being carried out in more of a holistic fashion than in the past in the hopes of executing more 10-, 20- and 30-pip trades such as last night’s AUDJPY short position.
AUDJPY’s day-to-day and four-hour sentiments are both bearish and the pair has been riding the day-to-day and four-hour support levels south for the past twelve hours. However, the hourly trend had been bullish for the past three hours, though in the last hour, price has begun to fall. The time to trade (short) this pair would have been seventeen hours ago, when a bullish four-hour trend reversed direction to align itself with the bearish day-to-day trend.
AUDUSD’ situation is similar to that of AUDJPY.
CADJPY is more or less neutral. If this does not change, the only real opportunities might be to buy the pair somewhere in the neighborhood of 79.79 or sell it somewhere around 80.44.
EURAUD’s day-to-day bias is more-or-less neutral. The four-hour trend is bearish, and the hourly trend just reversed from bullish to bearish. This suggests switching to lower timeframe charts and watching for sell opportunities.
EURGBP’s day-to-day bias is bearish, but the four-hour trend and hourly trends are bullish. This would suggest selling the pair if and when the four-hour trend turns south (and then shooting for a minimum of 30 pips profit).
EURJPY bounced off of day-to-day support nine hours ago. The day-to-day trend is bearish, but if the pair does not fall from 124.80, it will be an indication that the four-hour bias just switched from bearish to bullish (as the hourly sentiment has already been for the past nine hours) in which case, the intraday strategy would be to enter long positions until the one- and four-hour trends turn south once again.
EURUSD is in much the same situation as EURPY.
GBPJPY and GBPUSD are sitting on day-to-day support. All of the former’s trendlines are bearish and the same is true of the latter except that GBPUSD’s hourly trendline is currently neutral. Consequently, I would be inclined to buy the pairs if and when their one- and four-hour trendlines reverse north.
NZDJPY and NZDUSD have been in consolidation more-or-less over the last twenty-four hours.
USDCAD is sort of aimless; USDCHF has gone up, then down, then up, and might be on its way back down again; and the same might be true of USDJPY, though I would buy the latter two if their hourly trend lines opted to reverse direction to rejoin the four-hour trend heading north.
Things to Analyze or Think About...
- Given the success of the AUDJPY trade, how about if you start basing your entries on reversals in the four-hour instantaneous moving averages? (Another possibility is to base your entries on reversals in the one-hour instantaneous MAs, but ONLY as verified by the average 3 × 2 confirmation moving average.)
- In addition to depending on the TUBE for discerning the immediate general direction of price on five-minute charts, it also served as sort of a binary option price range envelope. But would the greenish turquoise "Inner Tube" you just added (reintroduced) today do a better job of filling this role?
- Note that the yellow green moving average (on a five-minute chart) appears to divide this measure (the Inner Tube) in half.
- Should you trust the purple moving average you transferred yesterday more than the orange one? It might even be better if you wait until they are both confirmed by the yellow green moving average.
- This leaves the yellow and lavender moving averages for suggesting the ultimate or longer-term direction of price, but maybe this is better left mainly to the TUBE with these two moving averages kind of being halfway ignored, since the TUBE defines the typical intermediate price range, thereby helping to forecast fluctuations within the general flow, which will in turn help to avoid misunderstandings regarding where price is ultimately going.
- You might want to start assigning more significance to the four-hour price range on five-minute charts, especially in conjunction with the price ranges coinciding with the TUBE and the Inner Tube (i.e., when the three statistical support or resistance levels happen to converge).
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Saturday / August 22, 2020 / 5:45 AM PST
So then, in addition to clarifying the immediate direction of price on five-minute charts, the greenish turquoise TUBE serves as sort of a binary option price range envelope.
On the other hand, the bold black Outer Tube suggests the more general direction—the general flow—of price at the intraday level by incorporating or accounting for the typical intermediate price range, and is therefore to be more trusted in this role than the yellow and lavender moving averages (the hourly baselines) for reasons specified in the previous post and hinted at here.
Again, watch for convergences between the upper or lower bands of the greenish turquoise TUBE, the bold black Outer Tube, and the navy blue four-hour price range envelope.
You did not just reintroduce the Inner Tube today. This was the TUBE and you simply changed its color from black to greenish turquoise, so go back to calling it the TUBE. It was the other adaptive envelope that you added yesterday and colored black, so start calling it the "Outer Tube."
So then, in addition to clarifying the immediate direction of price on five-minute charts, the greenish turquoise TUBE serves as sort of a binary option price range envelope.
On the other hand, the bold black Outer Tube suggests the more general direction—the general flow—of price at the intraday level by incorporating or accounting for the typical intermediate price range, and is therefore to be more trusted in this role than the yellow and lavender moving averages (the hourly baselines) for reasons specified in the previous post and hinted at here.
Again, watch for convergences between the upper or lower bands of the greenish turquoise TUBE, the bold black Outer Tube, and the navy blue four-hour price range envelope.
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Saturday / August 22, 2020 / 6:00 AM PST
Note that the orange moving average on your five-minute chart configuration is just slightly "faster" the the 15-minute baseline, which you are opting not to plot on your charts at this time.
So then, the purple moving average you just transferred the other day confirms the 15-minute baseline (and used to itself be identified as the fifteen-minute baseline) which is reflected by the orange moving average.
And don't forget, the yellow green moving average is considered to be the 30-minute baseline! So, given that the yellow green moving average more-or-less divides the TUBE in half, it follows that the TUBE should be viewed as the 30-minute price range.
And it would appear that the Outer Tube replaces the hourly price range envelope and the hourly candlestick envelope that it would seem you deleted from your five-minute configuration. Consequently, it would not be unreasonable to identify the Outer Tube as a 60-minute price range envelope.
So, in conclusion, this is basically the same general setup, but with a few subtle adjustments to improve accuracy and interpretation of the indicators in use. It also suggests that positions entered at the edges of the Outer Tube should have the hourly baselines (lavender and yellow) as their take-profit targets (see post #113). However, if the Outer Tube is angled in the same direction as the slope of the four-hour baseline, I imagine a more aggressive/ambitious take-profit target would be more appropriate.
(And once again, watch for convergences between the upper or lower bands of the 30-, 60- and 240-minute [adaptive] price range envelopes.)
On a five minute chart, the average 3 × 2 confirmation moving average converts to the average 3 × 20 confirmation moving average (since × 24 is not available). However, I would be more inclined to enter positions every time ALL of these moving averages come into alignment, and to then take profit (exit positions) if and when the 15-minute baseline turns against them.
On the other hand, it is not so simple as this because the whole time you should be taking the 30-, 60-, and 240-minute price ranges into consideration, as well as all the strategies from Post #113 and all the corresponding price/market structures. It is therefore likely to take a while to congeal all of this into one coherent, integrated whole.
So for the time being, it might make more sense to focus primarily on the four-hour baseline and the slope of the Outer Tube.
Note that the orange moving average on your five-minute chart configuration is just slightly "faster" the the 15-minute baseline, which you are opting not to plot on your charts at this time.
So then, the purple moving average you just transferred the other day confirms the 15-minute baseline (and used to itself be identified as the fifteen-minute baseline) which is reflected by the orange moving average.
And don't forget, the yellow green moving average is considered to be the 30-minute baseline! So, given that the yellow green moving average more-or-less divides the TUBE in half, it follows that the TUBE should be viewed as the 30-minute price range.
And it would appear that the Outer Tube replaces the hourly price range envelope and the hourly candlestick envelope that it would seem you deleted from your five-minute configuration. Consequently, it would not be unreasonable to identify the Outer Tube as a 60-minute price range envelope.
So, in conclusion, this is basically the same general setup, but with a few subtle adjustments to improve accuracy and interpretation of the indicators in use. It also suggests that positions entered at the edges of the Outer Tube should have the hourly baselines (lavender and yellow) as their take-profit targets (see post #113). However, if the Outer Tube is angled in the same direction as the slope of the four-hour baseline, I imagine a more aggressive/ambitious take-profit target would be more appropriate.
(And once again, watch for convergences between the upper or lower bands of the 30-, 60- and 240-minute [adaptive] price range envelopes.)
On a five minute chart, the average 3 × 2 confirmation moving average converts to the average 3 × 20 confirmation moving average (since × 24 is not available). However, I would be more inclined to enter positions every time ALL of these moving averages come into alignment, and to then take profit (exit positions) if and when the 15-minute baseline turns against them.
On the other hand, it is not so simple as this because the whole time you should be taking the 30-, 60-, and 240-minute price ranges into consideration, as well as all the strategies from Post #113 and all the corresponding price/market structures. It is therefore likely to take a while to congeal all of this into one coherent, integrated whole.
So for the time being, it might make more sense to focus primarily on the four-hour baseline and the slope of the Outer Tube.
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Then look to the bands of the TUBE and the Outer Tube for potential "launch pads" and the 15-minute baseline and confirmation moving average as trigger signals for entering positions following intraday and/or binary option reversals.
And always bear in mind, if you are going to attempt to enter positions when ALL the moving averages come into alignment, it is the TUBE (the 30-minute price range) that dictates in which direction rates are truly headed at any given moment!
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