Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

[expiated]

Saturday / July 4, 2020 / 9:00 AM PST

I'm now satisfied with the re-calibration I did at the micro level, and then at more of a macro level. So, whereas I began to focus on simply trading a few days ago only to return to this journal, I'm hoping that this really is the end of it this time and I can pretty much limit my posts to the threads I started under the categories of "Chit Chat" and "Religion and Spirituality."

I've returned to this thread after a month, not because I'm no longer focused on simply trading, but because starting with next week, the trading is likely to become extremely nuanced, and I will need to maintain focus on a number of factors.

So at this time, I'm going to begin working on the language to do so.

• In terms of the gray envelope tracking the five-minute trend, I'm going to refer to is as "the worm."
• As for the red and blue inner "Trade Zone" envelope, I'm going to call it "the snake."
• I will refer to the dark red and dark blue outer "Trade Zone" envelope as the intraday price range.
• And I'm going to call the rosy brown trend defining envelope as the trend envelope.

This is going to make writing instructions for myself regarding the nuance to which I was just referring much easier, because it simply comes down to this...

Before entering any position, check to see where the rate is located with respect to each of the four aspects of structure mentioned above—the worm, the snake, the trend envelope, and the intraday price range.

Whether you should trade and in which direction will be determined by these four factors in combination with overall market bias/sentiment (i.e., the general overall trajectory of price flow).

 

[dxter]

@expiated: Thank you for the market structure analyzing methodology.
Can you please post a sample chart of the indices, say ES, NQ or YM with these envelopes?

 

[expiated]

@expiated: Thank you for the market structure analyzing methodology.
Can you please post a sample chart of the indices, say ES, NQ or YM with these envelopes?

@dstr:

There is nothing to thank me for in that what I typed will be utter nonsense to anyone other than myself. Unfortunately, I cannot post a sample chart of the indices with these charts because I trade Forex.

When it comes to US index futures, all I care about are moving average crossovers, so I would approach that market with more of a swing trader mentality than as a day trader. However, I no longer trade the stock market for a number of reasons that need not be mentioned here.

You piqued my curiosity however as to whether I could apply envelopes with ES, NQ or YM, which I explored given that I have finished developing my Forex system—so why not?

I suppose it’s possible, but the equity markets lack the uniformity of foreign currency pairs, so I doubt I would try it. As I already mentioned, I would simply go with the overall trend rather than trying to engage in intraday trading.

For example...

…in the chart on the left (I’m leaving the specific index and the time frame anonymous) price action spans the complete distance from the very bottom band to the very top band, but it doesn’t even come close to doing so in the chart on the right—even though the configurations and the timeframes are exactly the same (but the charts were pulled from two completely different years).

Moreover, in the first chart the candlesticks spend a lot of their time forming above or below the (barely visible) blue envelope, whereas they spend most of their time forming within it on the second chart.

I could still use the same configuration during both time periods, but I would have to use it differently.

So, if I were actually trading the index futures using real money, I would simply replace the blue envelope with a moving average and remain in long positions while that moving average and the bold black moving average were both sloping upward, and remain in short positions so long as that moving average and the bold black moving average were both sloping downward (especial if the dotted red moving average were angled in that same direction).

The bottom line is that I would use a much more straightforward approach to trading the indices than I use trading Forex.

 

[expiated]

Sunday / July 15, 2020 / 3:45 PM PST

Before entering any position, check to see where the rate is located with respect to each of the four aspects of structure mentioned above—the worm, the snake, the trend envelope, and the intraday price range.

Let's put your theory to the test. At 70.28 and 0.6536, NZDJPY and NZDUSD are in the upper regions of the snake and above the trend envelope, and should therefore be coming down at some point.

However, you should not short either of them because their overall sentiment is bullish, and you are therefore only looking to buy the pairs. Also, you would not be surprised to see NZDJPY climb as high as 70.38 and NZDUSD climb as high as 0.6548. And finally, neither pair has begun to initiate a reversal south, so selling either one is presently completely out of the question.

(But you don't want to buy either of them either, because they are near the top of the intraday price range, leaving limited room for profit, and besides, you are only supposed to buy during pullbacks, which does not characterize the present state of affairs.)

 

[expiated]

NZDJPY and NZDUSD have both now qualified as having established a bullish trend with significant momentum.

 

[expiated]

The first circle was really the place to make the first trade at the start of this week. So, why didn't I? First, because I don't trade during the first hour because the spreads are ridiculously wide, so I wasn't paying close attention. Now, it could have been that since it was at the end of the first hour, the spread might have narrowed by that time. But even so, though that was a fifteen-minute candlestick, price hopped up to the close in the first minute, so I'm not sure that I would nave gotten in on such a dramatic jump. And unfortunately, price never pulled back, but began trending strongly instead.

However, I DID go long at the second circle, the reason being that the rate was turning up after having pulled back to the bottom of the worm, and there was little reason to look for it to drop any farther (to the bottom of the snake, trend envelope, or intraday price range) given that the numbers currently qualify AUDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDJPY and NZDUSD as trending with significant momentum.

I could have collected about seven pips worth of profit, but I played it safe and set my take-profit target to lock in gains after just two or three.

 

[expiated]

If NZDJPY does not fall below 70.02 and NZDUSD does not drop under 0.6510, I will be looking/waiting for the next opportunities to buy.

 

[expiated]

So then, were I a relatively well-to-do trader, I'd like to think I'd be satisfied this morning having made the following two trades, and would be content to now turn my attention to other interests for the remainder of the day...

 

[expiated]

Tuesday / July 7, 2020 / 2:00 PM PST
Last night I modified my chart setup (pictured as it was on the left) so that it is now configured as it looks on the right. But instead of trading this morning, I had to go to the hospital, so I've not yet begun to apply its use.

UPDATE: The new lower panel now looks like this...

 

[expiated]

Buying AUDJPY was my first trade using the newly modified chart configuration...

In my OANDA live account I also successfully bought EURJPY. Ultimately, I'd like to get to the point where I can do the same thing in my live account that I'm presently doing in the virtual one—make a handful of trades each day for just a few (or a couple) of pips each, to finish each day having made several hundred dollars worth of profit, perhaps even $1000+ (eventually).

Then I'd also like to have a number of individuals working for me doing other things (like producing free K-12 educational videos) who generate their own "salaries" by copying as many or as few of my trades as they wish, information to which they would have exclusive access as members of my company/organization.