Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

[expiated]

At this time, I would like to divide the tools I'm using into three categories: (1) universal measurements, as defined in the previous post; (2) global measurements, meaning those concerned with intraday conditions; (3) and local measurements, which track temporary/fluctuating pullbacks and surges.

With this in mind, though NZDJPY is bearish from a universal perspective, as of today, the global measures have turned bullish. I will therefore be looking for opportunities to buy the pair using the lower panel tactics described in one of my other threads...

The pair is currently at 63.79.

 

[expiated]

Monday / May 18, 2020 / 8:40 AM PST

This leads me to conclude that when these same measurements reverse direction to join the universal baseline on its current downward trajectory, I ought to be able to enter a short position and ride the pair lower quite a distance for a nice bit of profit. At least, this is what I'm hoping to try.

The measurements never reversed direction. Rather, they continued climbing to such a degree that they finally pulled the universal baseline north with them. AUDUSD made contact with first level statistical resistance at 0.6493. It will encounter extreme statistical resistance if and when it climbs another roughly 25 pips (it is currently at 0.6505) to 0.6531, and will meet with ultimate statistical resistance if it can manage to rise an additional 60 pips to 0.6596.

I will therefore be looking to sell the pair over the next few days anywhere between where it is now and 0.6596, if and when the global measurements finally turn south.

Conclusion:
In the "final analysis" I am forced to conclude that the universal baseline from the "old" 15-minute chart configuration is much too lagging to be of any practical use with respect to my intraday trading, and in fact, can (and probably should) be totally ignored without any (negative) effect on daily outcomes.

 

[expiated]

Tuesday / May 19, 2020 / 1:45 AM GMT

• According to my forecast model EURJPY and EURUSD are right on the dividing line between bullish and bearish bias. If they go higher, I will look to buy. If they go lower, I will look to sell.
• USDJPY has been at the decision-making level for the last nine hours, but seems unable to decide which way it wants to go.
• Likewise, USDCHF has been “waffling” for more than a whole day.
• GBPJPY and GBPUSD have evidenced an inclination to continue north. One can only hope they will follow through on their decision.
• EURAUD appears to have decided to continue heading south.

 

[expiated]

According to my forecast model EURJPY and EURUSD are right on the dividing line between bullish and bearish bias. If they go higher, I will look to buy. If they go lower, I will look to sell.

UPDATE: The initial move of EURJPY and especially EURUSD is to the south.

 

[expiated]

Tuesday / May 19, 2020 / 6:47 AM GMT

UPDATE: The initial move of EURJPY and especially EURUSD is to the south.

There was no follow-through on the initial moves south. In the last hour the two pairs have taken a stab at climbing north, so I'll be watching to see whether they extend their ascents or not.

 

[expiated]

Intermediate Baseline

At this time, I would like to divide the tools I'm using into three categories: (1) universal measurements, as defined in the previous post; (2) global measurements, meaning those concerned with intraday conditions; (3) and local measurements, which track temporary/fluctuating pullbacks and surges.

I'm going to need to add a fourth category here. Having recently come up with a way to quantify the slopes of key baselines, I believe I have the ability to identify what parameters will enable me to pass on insignificant initial moves like the ones noted in the previous post. Accordingly, my plan is to refrain from entering positions unless the global baseline is registering, at a minimum, a specified degree of slope.

But there is another moving average I want to focus on for a different reason. In November of 2015, I’d pretty much fully envisioned my system of trading foreign currency pairs based on multiple simple moving average envelopes. But now, I might have changed my tune. For the process of reconciling a single remaining “old” 15-minute chart with the newer chart configurations I'm currently using, and synchronizing my 15-minute chart setup with the composition of my one-minute chart, has resulted in my concluding that the only envelopes I really require are the two associated with normal and extreme deviation from the baseline just mentioned, which has no name. I am therefore designating it as the "intermediate baseline" to differentiate it from the lower-time-frame local baselines. What happens throughout the remainder of this week should verify whether this judgement (that its associated envelopes are the only ones I really need) is valid.

 

[expiated]

Tuesday / May 19, 2020 / 8:00 AM PST

What happens throughout the remainder of this week should verify whether this judgement (that the two envelopes associated with the intermediate baseline are the only ones I really need) is valid.

No, the above judgement is not valid. I will still be using multiple simple moving average envelopes. However, at this time my proprietary adaptive price range envelopes no longer seem necessary. Also, the process of quantifying the degree of slope characterizing particular market conditions has led to specific parameters for guiding the decision-making process when an asset is trending, and a different set of numbers for use when an asset is range bound. Accordingly, my focus is now back on detailing a mathematically-based trading routine/protocol that should all but eliminate unsuccessful outcomes.

 

[expiated]

Tuesday / May 19, 2020 / 11:45 PM GMT

My focus is now back on detailing a mathematically-based trading routine/protocol that should all but eliminate unsuccessful outcomes.

I think I am now satisfied with all my new parameters in that they seem to enable me to correctly interpret what is going on in the market (i.e., what I expect to happen does happen)...

So now that the global baseline has switched from bullish to bearish and the "dead cat bounce" has climbed about as high as the numbers forecast, I will be watching for the signal to sell AUDJPY, which I expect to trigger anywhere from where the pair is now up to a maximum elevation of 70.75.

(The purpose for posting such predictions is to test the validity of my system.)

 

[expiated]

I will be watching for the signal to sell AUDJPY, which I expect to trigger anywhere from where the pair is now up to a maximum elevation of 70.75.

I might have been off by only two pips since AUDJPY appears to be reversing direction at 70.77. If I make money from this trade I will plan for this to be my last forecast in that it will have validated the final bit of methodology constituting my newer lower-panel-based forecast model—hopefully the culmination of what I started way back in November of 2015.

 

[easymon1]

I am now satisfied with all my new parameters

book them frogs, daddio. be considerate, save a few for us to play with.