Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

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Elite Trader has provided a convenient platform for me to record my market analyses. But now that the format is established along with a protocol for interpreting the final configurations of my setups, in the future I plan to do this privately using my own laptop and Microsoft Word.

Everything was set to begin the full implementation of NPP, and I even created a version of my one-minute chart configuration that substituted all the original proprietary indicators with "ready-made" moving averages and Donchian channels; except that I would not be free to actually do the trading until the end of August at the earliest, so I decided to explore an idea that the Donchian channels stimulated in connection with trading IQ Option binary options.

In opening the IQ Option platform, I came across an indicator I had never heard of before, one that was probably an implementation of the volatiliy based stop suggested by Tushar Chande and Stanley Kroll in their book “The New Technical Trader.” As configured on the IQ Option platform, I found the tool of little use, but the version I downloaded to my MT4 charts closely matched all the numbers I use to do my trading, no matter which chart I loaded...one minute, one hour, one day, etc. Of course, I was rather impressed with this since moving averages and moving average envelopes are the ONLY standard indicators I like.

However, I began to explore using the indicator in a completely different way, which led to a "reversal zone" setup of sorts, which led to my returning here to test/establish yet another protocol—one designed to go for BIG moves by uncovering/highlighting MONSTER reversals using a coordinated set of charts (4-hour, 1-hour, 15-minute, and 5-minute).

What is likely to follow next (over the next few days) will be my efforts in this area...

 

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THE CHANDE KROLL REVERSAL ZONE PROJECT:

Sunday, July 28, 2019 / 9:45 a.m. PST

Be watching GBPUSD, currently at 1.2376, for the opportunity to enter a long position at the foot of an prolonged ascent north. The same holds true for EURUSD, currently at 1.1123.

EURJPY already bounced off the support zone about forty hours ago at 120.25 and is still overall bullish, so be prepared to enter a long position if an when the current bearish pullback (resulting from "squishy" resistance) turns north.

GBPJPY bounced off the support zone at 134.16 over a week ago and is now running into "squishy" support, so be prepared to enter a long position following the return of a bullish sentiment (if this should happen to manifest).

USDJPY has been trapped by the resistance zone at 108.79 for the past 30 hours, so be watching for the opportunity to enter a short position at the summit of what could be a prolonged descent south.

WHO IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING "SQUISHY" RESISTANCE?

EURGBP at 0.8982, EURAUD at 1.6092, USDCHF at 0.9930, and USDCAD at 1.3164.

WHO IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING "SQUISHY" SUPPORT?

AUDJPY at 75.06, AUDUSD at 0.6908, GBPJPY at 134.16, NZDJPY at 72.08, and NZDUSD at 0.6625.

(P.S. "Squishy" resistance will not necessarily impede the continued ascent of an asset, nor will "squishy" support necessarily hamper its continued drop. These are simply informal statistical designations indicating that price is at a level where the odds of a reversal taking place are higher than average, and gradually increasing so long as it continues heading in the same direction. If the pair is underlined, it means that the instrument is running into support/resistance in, not one, but two different time frames.)

DUDE!!!

To implement this strategy, you need check your charts only once every four hours! Isn't that sweet?

 

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USDJPY has been trapped by the resistance zone at 108.79 for the past 30 hours, so be watching for the opportunity to enter a short position at the summit of what could be a prolonged descent south.

USDJPY was the first pair to "bust a move." My plan is to enter a short position following the first pullback as soon as price and one or both of the upper channel lines come together, provided of course that all the numbers are still bearish when this happens.

At this time my forecast model suggests that an ambitious yet realistic (reasonable) take-profit target would be 108.03.

 

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My plan is to enter a short position following the first pullback as soon as price and one or both of the upper channel lines come together.

No...what is described above merely constitutes the developing setup. You should not actually sell the asset until it makes a bearish move by reversing direction so that the center line of the orchid channel hooks south (which hasn't happened yet)!

 

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THE CHANDE KROLL REVERSAL ZONE PROJECT:
Sunday, July 28, 2019 / 11:45 p.m. PST

I'm only checking my charts every few hours, so I can't really complain, but it truly will be better when I can go back to trading full-time as the following two examples illustrate how applying my so-called Chande Kroll intraday strategy would have already resulted in at least three immediate payoffs from entering long positions whereas waiting on the so-called Chande Kroll reversal strategy to play out potential unfolding developments is an hours-long, if not days-long, game of standby.

 

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WHO IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING "SQUISHY" RESISTANCE?
EURGBP at 0.8982, EURAUD at 1.6092, USDCHF at 0.9930, and USDCAD at 1.3164.

Monday, July 29, 2019 / 12:00 a.m. PST

USDCAD was pushed down to 1.3157 where it ran into my Chande Kroll intraday support lines and bounced back up into bullish territory near 1.3170, so I just purchased the pair at around 1.3174 seeking a modest 10-pips worth of profit.

 

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Be watching GBPUSD, currently at 1.2376, for the opportunity to enter a long position at the foot of an prolonged ascent north.

Monday, July 29, 2019 / 12:22 a.m. PST

GBPUSD is currently in a battle with Chande Kroll support zone and the pair is clearly winning, forcing the dynamic lower bands of the channels southward.

 

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WHO IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING "SQUISHY" SUPPORT?
AUDJPY at 75.06, AUDUSD at 0.6908, GBPJPY at 134.16, NZDJPY at 72.08, and NZDUSD at 0.6625.

Monday, July 29, 2019 / 12:22 a.m. PST

The intraday Chande Kroll configuration sees AUDUSD support at 0.6902 and suggests buying the pair big time if the rate climbs above 0.6909 and stays there. It sets support for AUDJPY at 74.90 and indicates I should buy the pair as soon as the hourly trend line begins hooking north.

The "squishy" resistance of EURAUD seems to be having an effect in that the pair looks like it is in the initial stages of rolling over. The intraday trend of USDCHF has also definitely turned south, but at this time, there is not yet a corresponding bearish sentiment confirmation in the four-hour chart.

 

[expiated]

USDCAD was pushed down to 1.3157 where it ran into my Chande Kroll intraday support lines and bounced back up into bullish territory near 1.3170, so I just purchased the pair at around 1.3174 seeking a modest 10-pips worth of profit.

Monday, July 29, 2019 / 1:20 a.m. PST

It's time to go to bed, yet I need to be awake to exit any positions that turn against me, plus the London session is pretty dead right now, so I'm just going to go ahead and exit USDCAD here with about a four-pip return (I lost 2 pips to the spread) and retire for the night.

The intraday trend of USDCHF has also definitely turned south, but at this time, there is not yet a corresponding bearish sentiment confirmation in the four-hour chart.

Just picking up a handful of pips here. I can't sell big time until I get confirmation from the four-hour charts...

 

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Monday, July 29, 2019 / 8:20 a.m. PST
THE CHANDE KROLL REVERSAL ZONE PROJECT:

ENDED!!!

A major tenant of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is that it suffers from the intrinsic predictability limitation of error growth with time. Unfortunately, it appears that my "Chande Kroll" reversal "theory" does not address or reduce this limitation in any manner whatsoever.

EURGBP has "blown through" its resistance zone as well as through major "squishy" resistance. GBPJPY and GBPUSD have done the same with respect to support. USDJPY is right back at the same level where it spent all of last Friday.

OUTCOME:

I have therefore concluded that this approach’s potential reward of leading to BIG payoffs by identifying/highlighting possible setups for MONSTER reversals is likely to pay off much too infrequently to make it worthwhile for me to bother pursuing this line of testing/research any further—so I’m ending the "project" right here.

On a positive note however, the methodology employed by my "Chande Kroll" intraday approach offers not just the potential, but an actual promise of clarifying the most defendable levels where a trader (where I) might want to enter or exit positions, place stop losses, and set take-profit targets—so this is a possibly fruitful line of inquiry I am planning to continue.