Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

expiated said:
Saturday, July 13, 2019 / 5:30 p.m. PST

I was evaluating an idea I had for a particular time frame, which seemed to gel quite nicely. However, when I looked up at the chart information, I discovered I was in a different time frame than I had intended.

Struck by how "perfectly" everything seemed to fit, I configured the elements specifically for conveying the trend, recommending where to enter positions during pullbacks, and where to take profit following price surges.

View attachment 205685

I know there is all kinds of research indicating that (1) market price changes are random; (2) curve fitting is dangerous because there is nothing in statistics that says when a given set of conditions is no longer valid, or even if a pattern was the result of a “cause/effect” type relationship in the first place, and (3) when a market analyst's forecast comes to pass, there is no way to know if the analyst was correct, or just right this time. However...I'm not buying it.

Perhaps it was because all these studies were focused on stocks, and very few have looked at exchange rates with matching thoroughness. Or maybe most of these researchers were interested in investing, and after obtaining their results, they simply extrapolated their findings to other styles of trading as well.

I know I'm not all that smart, and many of these authors are brilliant guys and gals, but that just makes me all the more curious as to why they aren't seeing the same things I'm seeing. (Or maybe some of them are, but rather than sharing the information, they simply go off and form their own hedge funds or whatnot.)
More...

The market is fractal. It looks similar on most time frames as you zoom out.

30 minute

upload_2019-7-14_18-39-34.png


hourly

upload_2019-7-14_18-40-3.png


daily

upload_2019-7-14_18-40-26.png


weekly

upload_2019-7-14_18-40-47.png
 
Sunday, July 14, 2019 / 5:30 p.m. PST

INTRADAY SENTIMENT

BULLISH
  • CADJPY looks to be initiating a reversal north, but this has yet to be confirmed.
  • The same can be said of EURAUD. But at this point, it is rather neutral.
  • GBPJPY is so far forming an upward bowl.
BEARISH
  • AUDJPY almost hit my target at 75.64, so I'm going to raise it to 75.66.
  • GBPUSD might be rolling over to head south.
NEUTRAL
  • NZDUSD did not follow through on a possible reversal south, so now I'm waiting to see if it pulls back and then bounces north, in which case, I will enter a long position instead.
  • NZDJPY looks confused at the moment. So do AUDUSD and EURUSD.
  • EURJPY
  • USDJPY
  • USDCAD currently looks confused, as does EURGBP.
  • USDCHF
 
Last edited:
Sunday, July 14, 2019 / 8:30 p.m. PST

ScreenHunter_5780 Jul. 14 20.02.jpg


INTRADAY SENTIMENT:

BULLISH
  • AUDJPY
  • AUDUSD
  • CADJPY
  • EURJPY
  • GBPJPY
  • NZDJPY
  • NZDUSD
  • USDCHF
  • USDJPY
BEARISH
  • EURAUD
NEUTRAL
  • EURGBP
  • USDCAD
  • EURUSD
  • GBPUSD
 
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Monday, July 15, 2019 / 12:05 a.m. PST

Everything I'm seeing suggests AUDUSD ought to be heading higher in the near future...

AUDUSDM15.png


GBPUSD might be neutral at the moment from an intraday perspective, but from a day-to-day standpoint, it is definitely bullish! So is NZDUSD.
 
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expiated said:
EURAUD's anticipated climb was cut short, so be on the alert for it to make a second attempt, especially if and when it gets back down to around 1.5960.
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While I do see statistical support not far below, my weekly trend line just recently turned south, so EURAUD could very well ride statistical support downward for an unlimited length of time.

EURAUDDaily.png
 
Monday, July 15, 2019 / 12:40 a.m. PST

INTRADAY SENTIMENT In Light of the Bigger Picture...

BULLISH
  • AUDJPY It lost day-to-day momentum of Friday.
  • AUDUSD
  • CADJPY Is still bearish from a day-to-day perspective.
  • EURJPY Is still bearish from a day-to-day perspective.
  • GBPJPY
  • NZDJPY Lost day-to-day momentum of Friday.
  • NZDUSD
  • USDCHF
  • USDJPY
BEARISH
  • EURAUD
NEUTRAL
  • EURGBP Is still bearish from a day-to-day perspective, but just shot up to the upper level of the intraday price range within the last 45 minutes.
  • USDCAD Looks like it's going to resume its downward trajectory.
  • EURUSD
  • GBPUSD Is still bullish from a day-to-day perspective.
 
Monday, July 15, 2019 / 8:30 a.m. PST

INTRADAY SENTIMENT from before, with updates...

BULLISH
  • AUDJPY It lost day-to-day momentum of Friday. UPDATE: Has retreated from the high 13 hours ago and has gone nowhere in the last 8 hours.
  • AUDUSD Has gone nowhere in the last 12 hours and will soon have to decide if it wishes to remain bullish or if it is going to turn south.
  • CADJPY Is still bearish from a day-to-day perspective. UPDATE: It's now bearish from an intraday perspective as well and will be removed from this list accordingly.
  • EURJPY Is still bearish from a day-to-day perspective. UPDATE: It is also now bearish from an intraday perspective as well and will be removed from this list accordingly.
  • GBPJPY It's now headed south and will be removed from this list accordingly.
  • NZDJPY Lost day-to-day momentum of Friday. Has gone nowhere in the last 13 hours.
  • NZDUSD Has lost ground in the last 5 hours.
  • USDCHF In actuality, the pair continued its bearish day-to-day trajectory rather than follow through on its attempted intraday climb. UPDATE: But it has now turned north as of about three hours ago.
  • USDJPY Returned to its bearish day-to-day rather than follow through on its attempted intraday climb. UPDATE: But it is now poised to reverse its day-to-day trend to the north if it continues to climb from 107.93.
BEARISH
  • EURAUD
NEUTRAL
  • EURGBP Is still bearish from a day-to-day perspective, but just shot up to the upper level of the intraday price range within the last 45 minutes. UPDATE: It is now bullish and will be removed from this list accordingly. I should have set my take-profit target a lot higher...
ScreenHunter_5781 Jul. 15 07.57.jpg


(I bought EURGBP after noticing the previously mentioned signs of a reversal north.)
  • USDCAD Looks like it's going to resume its downward trajectory. This was true, but it just turned north within the last 90 minutes.
  • EURUSD Looks very confused.
  • GBPUSD Is still bullish from a day-to-day perspective. Since my last observation before retiring for the night, it made a dramatic intraday turn to the south as well.
 
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Monday, July 15, 2019 / 8:40 a.m. PST

NEW INTRADAY SENTIMENT KEEPING THE DAY-TO-DAY TREND IN MIND:

BULLISH
  • EURGBP
  • NZDJPY
  • NZDUSD
BEARISH
  • CADJPY
  • EURAUD (I would have entered a short position had I been awake when the structure was right.)
  • EURJPY
  • GBPJPY
  • GBPUSD
NEUTRAL
  • AUDJPY
  • AUDUSD
  • EURUSD
  • USDCAD
  • USDCHF
  • USDJPY
 
Last edited:
Monday, July 15, 2019 / 1:00 p.m. PST

At this point, I think it's probably safe to return AUDJPY and AUDUSD squarely in the bullish column. I'll do the same for USDCAD if it rises after the next pullback.
 
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