Numerical Price Prediction Challenge
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This last position (AUDUSD) was entered based on the hourly trend turning north near the bottom of the range of the weekly price flow. I pocketed my extremely modest gains partly because the end of the week is approaching, but primarily because the daily and half-day baselines are not yet bullish, and this would have to be the case before I could conclude that the odds were statistically in favor of the rate continuing to rise from 0.6616.
For Sunday, April 30, 2023
EURUSD has been climbing ever since March 16, 2023. This suggests I should enter a long position any day the pair paints a red daily candlestick that closes near the bottom of the belt constituting the four-day price flow.
The same strategy could be applied to GBPUSD as well.
AUDUSD has been looking at a neutral four-day price flow for about a month-and-a-half now. Given that it is presently situated in the lower region of that measure, it would not be unreasonable for a trader to enter a long position as soon as the daily trend turns north.
If USDCHF is going to continue to fall (as it has been for a month-and-a-half) a trader could easily justify entering a short position as soon as the daily trend turns south again.
USDCAD has registered signs of the initial formation of a new bearish leg south. It should not take too long for close observation to verify whether these signals are legit or not.
Though GBPJPY is very bullish, the rate ended this week positioned at the top of multiple price ranges. This suggests a better than average statistical probability that the pair will need to pull back in the not-too-distant future, if only temporarily, before heading higher. In fact, I wouldn't even be surprised to see it gap down at the beginning of this next week's trading.
Though GBPJPY is very bullish, the rate ended this week positioned at the top of multiple price ranges. This suggests a better than average statistical probability that the pair will need to pull back in the not-too-distant future, if only temporarily, before heading higher. In fact, I wouldn't even be surprised to see it gap down at the beginning of this next week's trading.
However, if they ARE legitimate, bear in mind that the slower measures are all still bullish. So, be prepared for a southbound journey to be short-lived, and for the pair to possibly resume a northward trajectory in relatively short order.
POSITION TRADING:
Key measures include the approximately two-month price range envelope at 1.85%, 4.6% and 10.00% deviation [as confirmed by the (lagging) four-month baseline(s)]... not to mention the ten-day price range envelope at 3.00% deviation.
The "slower measures" mentioned in the previous post (#206) are the four-, six- and twelve-day price range envelopes. The implication is that these measures are useful primarily for swing trading.
If you look at USDCAD from the position trading perspective which was outlined in the first paragraph above, it should be anticipated that the U.S. dollar-Canadian loonie is not likely to crawl much below the 1.3260 handle, which is the first level of the statistical support zone represented by the inner lower band of the two-month price range envelope.
However, since the two-month envelope is a tad bit bearish, would it not make sense to expect this pair to continue heading south? No, because the four-month baseline is still very much on a northbound trajectory.
Key measures include the approximately two-month price range envelope at 1.85%, 4.6% and 10.00% deviation [as confirmed by the (lagging) four-month baseline(s)]... not to mention the ten-day price range envelope at 3.00% deviation.
The "slower measures" mentioned in the previous post (#206) are the four-, six- and twelve-day price range envelopes. The implication is that these measures are useful primarily for swing trading.
If you look at USDCAD from the position trading perspective which was outlined in the first paragraph above, it should be anticipated that the U.S. dollar-Canadian loonie is not likely to crawl much below the 1.3260 handle, which is the first level of the statistical support zone represented by the inner lower band of the two-month price range envelope.
However, since the two-month envelope is a tad bit bearish, would it not make sense to expect this pair to continue heading south? No, because the four-month baseline is still very much on a northbound trajectory.
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USDJPY is looking at a bullish four-month baseline, but the two-month and 10-day measures are very bearish. So, it's possible that the four-month moving average is simply lagging behind and will eventually be turned south as well.
Moreover, the rate is at the top of the 10-day price range and has reached first level resistance in the form of the inner upper band of the two-month price range envelope. This would suggest (to me) that a (position) trader MIGHT be able to profit from entering a short position as soon as the four-day baseline begins to turn over.
Moreover, the rate is at the top of the 10-day price range and has reached first level resistance in the form of the inner upper band of the two-month price range envelope. This would suggest (to me) that a (position) trader MIGHT be able to profit from entering a short position as soon as the four-day baseline begins to turn over.
GENERAL NOTES FROM A POSITION TRADING PERSPECTIVE...
(Keep adding to this list little by little.)
(Keep adding to this list little by little.)
- GBPJPY is very bullish, but is well into a forward advance. It would therefore make sense to enter a long position as the pair is coming out of its next pullback, which could be as much as a month or two away from happening.
GENERAL NOTES FROM A POSITION TRADING PERSPECTIVE...
- GBPJPY is very bullish, but is well into a forward advance. It would therefore make sense to enter a long position as the pair is coming out of its next pullback, which could be as much as a month or two away from happening.
- The same strategy recommended for GBPJPY can also be applied to EURJPY and EURUSD.
- USDCAD has registered signs of the initial formation of a new bearish leg south. It should not take too long for close observation to verify whether these signals are legit or not. However, if they ARE legitimate, bear in mind that the slower measures are all still bullish. So, be prepared for a southbound journey to be short-lived, and for the pair to possibly resume a northward trajectory in relatively short order. If you look at USDCAD from the position trading perspective, it should be anticipated that the U.S. dollar-Canadian loonie is not likely to crawl much below the 1.3260 handle, which is the first level of the statistical support zone represented by the inner lower band of the two-month price range envelope. (It would not make sense to expect this pair to continue heading south, because the four-month baseline is still very much on a northbound trajectory.)
- USDJPY is looking at a bullish four-month baseline, but the two-month and 10-day measures are very bearish. So, it's possible that the four-month moving average is simply lagging behind and will eventually be turned south as well. Moreover, the rate is at the top of the 10-day price range and has reached first level resistance in the form of the inner upper band of the two-month price range envelope. This would suggest (to me) that a (position) trader MIGHT be able to profit from entering a short position as soon as the four-day baseline begins to turn over.
- AUDJPY was headed south, but abruptly turned north, technically, on Friday, though Thursday also painted a green daily candlestick. However, the two-month and 10-day envelopes are still bearish, so logically, a resumption of a southbound course should take place eventually, even though the (lagging?) four-month baseline is still pointed upward. Resistance levels indicated the rate should not climb much higher than 91.46 (if that high) before turning around.
- Though AUDUSD’s two-month envelope had been bearish ever since the end of June 2021, and was joined by the four-month envelope in January of 2022, the two-month measure turned north in March. And with the rate presently in the lower half of this envelope, if I were a position trader, I would be waiting to buy the pair as soon as the four-day baseline turns north.
- Everything about EURGBP is bullish. The only problem is, its price action is extremely erratic. For this reason, it might be a good idea to stay away from this pair. However, if one were determined to trade it, his or her best bet might be to enter a long position when candlesticks were painting at the bottom of the four-day price range, and exit at the top of the same measure (approximately 1.20% deviation).
- A similar tactic might work with GBPUSD, but the pullbacks are not as deep, so positions would have to be entered at the bottom of the 24-hour price range rather than the four-day measure.
- This month USDCHF’s four-month baseline confirmed the turn south signaled by the two-month price range envelopes in November of 2022. Accordingly, entering a short position the next time this pair exits a pullback in the four-day baseline would be perfectly justifiable. Keep in mind however that the last time such a pullback was executed, the pair waited almost four months before doing so.