This possibility was eliminated two hours ago when ALL the signals turned bearish.
Numerical Price Prediction Challenge
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Even if it is so... being able to see what is going on at the "microscopic" level, how price is all over the place and how there are so many countless trade setups that manifest in the interim, I am once again reminded of an analogy I wrote not too long ago, of how this feels like trying to perform surgery with a sledgehammer, so that I don't even care what the ultimate outcome might be!
With a scalpel in hand, I can operate at a level of detail and precision that navigate's the patient's vital systems and anatomy with a degree of skill and agility that makes it insanity to do otherwise. Hence, I'm afraid the reopening of this thread is going to be very short lived, because at this point, I don't really have anything else to add.
THIS THREAD IS RE-CLOSED
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Jesus returns to Jerusalem...
After a year and a half, I am returning to this thread—not because there are any additional questions that need to be answered, since there are not—but precisely because there are not. There are now many facets to how I view the markets, and I need a place to think out loud such that my thoughts are not fleeting (i.e., where I can put them in writing) but do not really wish to create a whole new journal to do so, and of those that are already established, this one seems to be the most closely related.
Wednesday | March 30, 2022 | 9:00 PM PST
Yesterday, I more-or-less settled on an approach to applying Numerical Price Prediction that focuses on the daily, 3½-hour and 45-minute price range envelopes, and earlier today I formed a plan to begin using the strategy to trade Nadex Knock-Outs.
The ideas I have related to this activity will, for now at least, be recorded here, with my initial thoughts in connection with buying EURJPY being as follows...
The pair's day-to-day trend is decidedly bullish, as is the 3½-hour measure. Having taken a downward turn from 6:15 p.m. to 7:15 p.m. PST, the asset is on its way back up again, so perhaps I will be able to lock in a few pips profit if it sustains this leg of its climb at all.
Yesterday, I more-or-less settled on an approach to applying Numerical Price Prediction that focuses on the daily, 3½-hour and 45-minute price range envelopes, and earlier today I formed a plan to begin using the strategy to trade Nadex Knock-Outs.
The ideas I have related to this activity will, for now at least, be recorded here, with my initial thoughts in connection with buying EURJPY being as follows...
The pair's day-to-day trend is decidedly bullish, as is the 3½-hour measure. Having taken a downward turn from 6:15 p.m. to 7:15 p.m. PST, the asset is on its way back up again, so perhaps I will be able to lock in a few pips profit if it sustains this leg of its climb at all.
Wednesday | March 30, 2022 | 9:54 PM PST
AUDJPY had a bullish day-to-day bias up until Monday, but has been pretty much neutral since yesterday. The 3½-hour measure is neutral as well, but the 40-minute and 20-minute price flows are on a downward trajectory, so it just might be that they will sustain their bearish courses long enough for me to pick up a dozen or so pips profit if I enter a short position once this pullback comes to an end, assuming that it does.
AUDJPY had a bullish day-to-day bias up until Monday, but has been pretty much neutral since yesterday. The 3½-hour measure is neutral as well, but the 40-minute and 20-minute price flows are on a downward trajectory, so it just might be that they will sustain their bearish courses long enough for me to pick up a dozen or so pips profit if I enter a short position once this pullback comes to an end, assuming that it does.
USDCAD has been headed south ever since March 16, 2022, but price has been rising from the start of this 24-hour market cycle, resulting in bullish 3½-hour and 45-minute baselines. However, the 20-minute measure turned bearish about 16 minutes ago, so if it continues in this direction, eventually pulling the slower trend lines down with it, I might reap a decent amount of profit from this short position...
Thursday | March 31, 2022 | 2:30 AM PST
I was searching for a name for the newest version of NPP when I realized that this is my Numerical Price Prediction "Eureka" Strategy. Right now, its indicating that EURJPY's 20-minute baseline is bullish and has just crossed above the 45-minute measure. It also suggests that the pair is highly unlikely to fall below 135.46 anytime in the near future, and certainly not as low as 135.07. I therefore purchased both a binary option contract set for expiry in about 30 minutes AND a knock-out...
I'm therefore very interested in seeing where things stand in both cases a half hour from now.
UPDATE: All the Euro pairs on my watch list are in the same situation... very bullish overall daily trends, but currently experiencing deep pullbacks. Consequently, I also just purchased an EURGBP knock-out at about a four-to-one reward to risk ratio:
So far, the pairs are trying very hard to crawl lower instead of pushing higher. If the 135.68 level doesn't hold, the EURJPY binary option is going to be in big trouble, but with about ten minutes left to go, it just took a turn in my favor. If it is still in-the-money nine minutes from now, it will have initially paid off better than the knock-out.
With five minutes left to go, price is crawling lower again. It's not looking very good for any of the positions, but at four minutes EURJPY is now bouncing off the 135.68 support level.
EURJPY was in-the-money literally by only one or two pips at expiry, but immediately dropped below the strike price right afterward. Needless to say, the Euro-pair knock-outs did not survive.
I was asleep when AUDJPY bounced off the bottom of the 3½-hour price range, so was unavailable to take advantage of the situation. Perhaps I will be awake if and when EURJPY and/or EURGBP do the same, and can then capitalize on the similar circumstances, IF the pairs exhibit typical price behavior.
I was searching for a name for the newest version of NPP when I realized that this is my Numerical Price Prediction "Eureka" Strategy. Right now, its indicating that EURJPY's 20-minute baseline is bullish and has just crossed above the 45-minute measure. It also suggests that the pair is highly unlikely to fall below 135.46 anytime in the near future, and certainly not as low as 135.07. I therefore purchased both a binary option contract set for expiry in about 30 minutes AND a knock-out...
I'm therefore very interested in seeing where things stand in both cases a half hour from now.
UPDATE: All the Euro pairs on my watch list are in the same situation... very bullish overall daily trends, but currently experiencing deep pullbacks. Consequently, I also just purchased an EURGBP knock-out at about a four-to-one reward to risk ratio:
So far, the pairs are trying very hard to crawl lower instead of pushing higher. If the 135.68 level doesn't hold, the EURJPY binary option is going to be in big trouble, but with about ten minutes left to go, it just took a turn in my favor. If it is still in-the-money nine minutes from now, it will have initially paid off better than the knock-out.
With five minutes left to go, price is crawling lower again. It's not looking very good for any of the positions, but at four minutes EURJPY is now bouncing off the 135.68 support level.
EURJPY was in-the-money literally by only one or two pips at expiry, but immediately dropped below the strike price right afterward. Needless to say, the Euro-pair knock-outs did not survive.
I was asleep when AUDJPY bounced off the bottom of the 3½-hour price range, so was unavailable to take advantage of the situation. Perhaps I will be awake if and when EURJPY and/or EURGBP do the same, and can then capitalize on the similar circumstances, IF the pairs exhibit typical price behavior.
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TRYING SOMETHING NEW...
I'm not getting the kind of results I expect, so I experimented with a number of proprietary indicators and ended up with this chart configuration below...
The red dots indicate points at which the lower panel indicator would have recommended entering a short position (i.e., when the oscillator and histogram were on opposite sides of the center of the channel).
Slapping this setup on the first chart I clicked on (GBPUSD) suggested buying the pair, which I did, even though the scenario was not at all the ideal. I'm currently up by a dollar...
...so I'm going to set a profit target for $4 just to see if I can get out of this trade with a little bit of pocket change.
The new configuration suggests that EURUSD is indeed a strong buy, in spite of the previous unsuccessful attempts, and that the pair "should" reverse direction somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.1052, if not sooner. Consequently, I am going to try entering another long position at least once more, perhaps if and when I get a reversal in the 45-minute baseline down around that region.
I guess I lied. I never did set the $4 profit target, so I'm going to go ahead and take profit with respect to GBPUSD right here at $21, and continue to explore the use of this latest (promising) all proprietary chart...
I'm not getting the kind of results I expect, so I experimented with a number of proprietary indicators and ended up with this chart configuration below...
The red dots indicate points at which the lower panel indicator would have recommended entering a short position (i.e., when the oscillator and histogram were on opposite sides of the center of the channel).
Slapping this setup on the first chart I clicked on (GBPUSD) suggested buying the pair, which I did, even though the scenario was not at all the ideal. I'm currently up by a dollar...
...so I'm going to set a profit target for $4 just to see if I can get out of this trade with a little bit of pocket change.
The new configuration suggests that EURUSD is indeed a strong buy, in spite of the previous unsuccessful attempts, and that the pair "should" reverse direction somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.1052, if not sooner. Consequently, I am going to try entering another long position at least once more, perhaps if and when I get a reversal in the 45-minute baseline down around that region.
I guess I lied. I never did set the $4 profit target, so I'm going to go ahead and take profit with respect to GBPUSD right here at $21, and continue to explore the use of this latest (promising) all proprietary chart...
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