Numerical Price Prediction Challenge

[expiated]

Tuesday / May 12, 2020 / 12:45 PM PST

I am very much looking forward to my continued activity in the Forex market, having just revisited my hourly, 15-, five-, and one-minute chart configurations, and found that as satisfied as I was with my previous setups, and having made no really substantial changes, adjusting my point of view and where I am placing the most emphasis is nonetheless enhancing the clarity of what the graphics tell me.

With this in mind, I will be interested to see if GBPUSD climbs from 1.2280. It has definitely ceased its journey south, at least for the time being, and is sitting right above run-of-the-mill or "ordinary" statistical support at 1.2268 (though I calculate "ultimate" statistical support down at 1.2183).

 

[expiated]

With this in mind, I will be interested to see if GBPUSD climbs from 1.2280. It has definitely ceased its journey south, at least for the time being, and is sitting right above run-of-the-mill or "ordinary" statistical support at 1.2268 (though I calculate "ultimate" statistical support down at 1.2183).

No reversal yet, so I will be watching to see what happens as GBPUSD approaches 1.2183.

 

[expiated]

Tuesday / May 12, 2020 / 3:45 PM PST

I am seeing initial signs that EURJPY and NZDJPY might be making the jump from bearish to bullish, so I will be looking for some type of confirmation within the next hour or two. However, I have posted these entries on the wrong thread. I meant to type them in NPP Daily Analysis, so that is where I will continue this analysis (if I take it any further).

 

[expiated]

Monday / June 29, 2020 / 7:20 AM PST

Right now I am working with a potential partner who is considering financing a trading business in a big way. We are using a Forex dot com virtual account to prove or disprove the efficacy of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), and given that the spread on their platform is, in my opinion, terrible as compared to OANDA and especially as compared to Tickmill, I have had to up my game, which is what brings me back to this particular thread/journal.

Based on everything that goes into using NPP in a very discretionary manner (i.e., multiple price ranges and baseline moving averages) I will be waiting to short EURAUD anywhere between where it is now (at 1.6426) and 1.6552, short EURGBP as soon as I get confirmation, short EURJPY anywhere between where it is now (at 121.27) and 121.82, and short EURUSD coming out of the next pullback.

 

[expiated]

Based on everything that goes into using NPP in a very discretionary manner (i.e., multiple price ranges and baseline moving averages) I will be waiting to short EURAUD anywhere between where it is now (at 1.6426) and 1.6552, short EURGBP as soon as I get confirmation, short EURJPY anywhere between where it is now (at 121.27) and 121.82, and short EURUSD coming out of the next pullback.

Forecast Confirmation:

 

[expiated]

From my viewpoint, a number of pairs look to be primed for executing major reversals in trend within the next 24 to 48 hours, though one would of course need to wait for confirmation before actually entering a position. Those I’m expecting to fall include AUDJPY, CADJPY, GBPJPY, and GBPUSD. Those I’m expecting to rise include EURUAD, EURGBP, and USDCAD.

 

[expiated]

From my viewpoint, a number of pairs look to be primed for executing major reversals in trend within the next 24 to 48 hours, though one would of course need to wait for confirmation before actually entering a position. Those I’m expecting to fall include AUDJPY, CADJPY, GBPJPY, and GBPUSD. Those I’m expecting to rise include EURUAD, EURGBP, and USDCAD.

Four down—three to go...

 

[expiated]

Wednesday / July 1, 2020 / 9:45 AM PST

I don’t recall what I did wrong that resulted in the two losing trades at the start of this last 24-hour market cycle, but I trust that by learning from such errors and using them to establish a protocol for how to do things the right way, remembering them will not be necessary since following my rules will automatically result in my sidestepping them.

I don’t think the potential partner I was in negotiations with the past couple of weeks was serious, but that’s okay because the process of proving (or disproving) the efficacy of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) for the guy is why I’m now trading in the manner that is yielding results like those above.

Moreover, if things go as planned, I should be receiving a major influx of funds around the middle of this month, which will enable me to start trading “bigger” using my own capital, thus reaping the full benefit of my system without having to share my returns with anyone else.

 

[expiated]

I am now going to try upping my game to another level by setting a personal challenge in the form of a 25 pip minimum profit requirement. The variables are direction, size of stop loss (anything between 5 to 25 pips) and time of entry. My aim is to open up a position at least twice per week, per currency pair, and my preference would be to avoid overnight costs. Three factors I want pay particularly close attention to are if there is a best time of day, whether there is a best stop loss setting, and how much time typically transpires before each position closes (if indeed there is a norm). In short, I am looking to improve on my current performance by remaining in trades for more extended periods of time.

All of these questions from two years ago are now answered. It looks like the results of today's activity will be at least twice as profitable as yesterday's, with my best (virtual) trade netting $838.09, and I feel I have now settled into a routine where similar results are apt to occur daily, so this thread has pretty much fulfilled its purpose.

First of all, I have concluded that it is a mistake to set take-profit targets in terms of numbers of pips, at least for myself. I am instead setting targets in accordance with price ranges.

Second, opening up a position at least twice per week is crazy! On most days, it should be feasible to execute roughly four different trades within a given 24-hour market cycle—at a minimum.

As for the best times to trade, for me personally at least, they are the first two hours of the London session, the first three hours of the New York session, and when exchange rates reverse direction between these two time periods.

In once sense, there is no best stop loss setting, but in another sense, there is. It all depends on where you wish to enter a given position. My preference is to do so where there are massive levels of "statistical" support or resistance so that I feel comfortable setting my stops at around 10 pips. Otherwise, I have found that, as a general rule, if one wishes to avoid getting stopped out by the shenanigans of the market makers, a 35-pip stop loss is necessary, or 30 pips at a minimum.

As for how much time typically transpires before each position closes, it can be a few minutes or even as quickly as a few seconds during the most volatile moments within the above-mentioned sessions, but certainly no more than an hour or two can be anticipated. Nonetheless, if positions are entered during periods of less volatility/liquidity, outside of the best times to trade mentioned above, it can take several hours for price to reach its target. (This is, of course, in terms of intraday trading.)

So then, I guess the bottom line is that there IS no "typical" amount of time that transpires before each position closes.

I'm still waiting for EURUSD to climb higher...

 

[expiated]

Friday, September 4, 2020

I am now going to try upping my game to another level by setting a personal challenge in the form of a 25-pip minimum profit requirement.

I am returning to this journal after about three months to evaluate a variation on its original purpose. I've concluded that due to the nature of foreign currency pair price action, for me, the most sensible approach to trading is to enter positions based on methodologies employing intraday tactics, strategies and techniques.

However, during the process of making this judgement, a baseline was added to my daily charts that supposedly tracks the weekly, if not monthly, flow of exchange rates. If it is valid, it would mean I could theoretically enter positions at carefully selected levels, and never have to worry about the haphazard, helter-skelter, zigzagging, seesawing ebb and flow of price action—exiting the positions with a healthy yield several days later when the day-to-day trend reverses direction as opposed settling for a mere 25 pips profit.

With this in mind, I will be waiting for AUDJPY's day-to-day trajectory to once again assume a bullish sentiment so that I can try entering and remaining in a long position. And the same applies to AUDUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, NZDJPY and NZDUSD.

I will be waiting for USDCAD's day-to-day trajectory to once again assume a bearish sentiment so that I can try doing the opposite in its case. (None of the other assets on my watch list are trending sharply enough to warrant such an attempt.)