It took me three months to get here, but I believe I finally have a system in place. It appears to me that I have met my challenge, so this thread is done.
Numerical Price Prediction Challenge
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It took me three months to get here, but I believe I finally have a system in place. It appears to me that I have met my challenge, so this thread is done.
Apparently, it seemed to me that I had met my challenge as of September 4, 2018, but it now looks like it took another three weeks or so for my system to reach true resolution. At any rate, all indications are that at this point, this thread as originally conceived has indeed come to an end, so I will now be using it merely as a convenient place to post observations for use in making market forecasts and timing trade entries and exits.
If nothing changes between now and the resumption of trading next week, I anticipate going long EURUSD and/or EURJPY.
USDJPY is also nicely structured for a buy, but it will need to initiate a new push north before I do so in that it is currently in retreat.
(I also highly suspect that USDCAD will likely be transitioning from bearish to bullish sometime near the start of next week.)
I was thinking maybe I joined this forum in the summer of 2016, spent a year tweaking my scalping strategy, and then another year adapting it to bigger profit targets. But in reviewing past posts, it appears I have only been here a little over a year, starting from around August 12, 2017.
Despite having been advised that my trading is based on fallacies, I’m pleased with the evolution of my Numerical Price Prediction system from strict application to guerrilla trading tactics to use with hourly, four-hour, and even daily charts.
However, though the resumption of trading in my live to account on Friday (September 21st) has seen markets generally head in the directions anticipated, it has also struck me anew with how zigzaggy price action is in the Forex market.
The upshot to this is that in the future, rather than seek 30 pips profit at a time based on 30-minute to daily charts, I’m going to try to perfect incorporating the use of 5-minute charts in such a manner as to minimize the amount of time I have to wait to reap gains of from 15 to 30 pips at a time, exiting these positions in between their frequent advances and retreats, which I do not find to be as haphazard as one might initially think on first glance.
Despite having been advised that my trading is based on fallacies, I’m pleased with the evolution of my Numerical Price Prediction system from strict application to guerrilla trading tactics to use with hourly, four-hour, and even daily charts.
However, though the resumption of trading in my live to account on Friday (September 21st) has seen markets generally head in the directions anticipated, it has also struck me anew with how zigzaggy price action is in the Forex market.
The upshot to this is that in the future, rather than seek 30 pips profit at a time based on 30-minute to daily charts, I’m going to try to perfect incorporating the use of 5-minute charts in such a manner as to minimize the amount of time I have to wait to reap gains of from 15 to 30 pips at a time, exiting these positions in between their frequent advances and retreats, which I do not find to be as haphazard as one might initially think on first glance.
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At long last my NPP pseudo swing trade strategy would appear to be on a par with my NPP guerrilla scalping strategy, except that the percentage of wins is slightly lower, but it looks like that is more than compensated for by the ratio of the average profit to the average loss being greatly improved.
(The graph and the number of trades don’t quite match, so I guess the report must be counting Swaps as well.)
(The graph and the number of trades don’t quite match, so I guess the report must be counting Swaps as well.)
I took a major hit from AUDUSD when it shot north last night for no apparent reason. I could have easily reversed direction had I been day trading instead of swing trading, and then ridden the pair all the way back down. But since I was not, I missed the opportunity to hop on, and then feared that if I tried to slide down the subsequent fall, it might reverse on me while I wasn’t looking, and lead to an even greater loss.
I exited USDCAD (for a small loss) to go long USDJPY because the Loonie wasn’t going anywhere, which fortunately paid off (but just a little).
When the Aussie pairs finished dropping, I purchased AUDJPY hoping to recoup some loss when it climbed north again, but that’s not what it chose to do, so now I am merely attempting to get out of the position at break even, which should happen any second now.
If and when I DO go back to day trading (closely managed intraday trading) in February or March, I’m thinking things should go rather smoothly. I am very much liking my charts as is, and can now conclude (in the final analysis) that in fact, I was NOT a hapless newbie endlessly learning something new, getting excited, placing a few losing trades, getting disheartened, rejecting the entire concept as a result, and moving on to the next strategy; perpetuating a never-ending cycle of failure because of neglecting to ever put in the time and effort necessary for a given methodology to become successful—but was indeed zeroing in on a personal set of parameters that, once discovered, would help me “be all I could be” as a trader.
I’m currently stuck in two positions. I thought AUDJPY was on its way south. But no, it’s still caught in consolidation, having been range bound for about five or six days now. So I’m hoping to at least get out of this trade at about break even. (At the very least, I believe this trade has taught me how to use my final chart configurations to minimize the chances of this happening again in the future.)
The other position is USDCHF, which seems to be structured right to come down from 0.9765, but thus far has not been of a mind to do so.
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So far this morning the Forex markets seem (to me) to be relatively quiet. I therefore exited USDCHF for a small loss to look for opportunities to scalp more promising currency pairs. So far, the only good opportunity that presented itself was to buy EURJPY, which gave back my loss from USDCHF with a little bit of profit on top.
Unfortunately, it looks like I’m eventually going to have to eat a loss from AUDJPY. In the meantime, I’m waiting for EURGBP to turn south so I can hopefully take advantage of the resumption of an overall down trend, or for USDNZD to pull back far enough to justify my entering a long position.