Dunno: can't vote.
I'll make money either way.
Numbers
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
I'll make money either way.
I finally had a nice trade from trading my views (short NQ from 94.50), but it came with no small amount of trepidation. Is it me or does it seem that any position carries with it a great deal of uncertainty?
The question now becomes, where is all this money that is leaving bonds going to? Is it going to stay cash, or is it going to be put to work in the stock market? is it going to the longer end of the curve, ie.e, the 30? Is this all convexity and duration related?
Truly, the inside day volatility has exploded and it feels like I am walking on a high wire everyday.
nitro
The question now becomes, where is all this money that is leaving bonds going to? Is it going to stay cash, or is it going to be put to work in the stock market? is it going to the longer end of the curve, ie.e, the 30? Is this all convexity and duration related?
Truly, the inside day volatility has exploded and it feels like I am walking on a high wire everyday.
nitro
For the first time in a long time my opinion has changed, and imo the FED should pause in JUN. It feels like the FED may have gone too far...
FFFs odds of raising in JUN imo should collapse to 10-20% chance of raise.
Very difficult to say what the rates will be EOY at this point, but I think my earlier estimates may have been too aggressive given recent economic data.
nito
FFFs odds of raising in JUN imo should collapse to 10-20% chance of raise.
Very difficult to say what the rates will be EOY at this point, but I think my earlier estimates may have been too aggressive given recent economic data.
nito
Geeesys,
Greenspan talked alot and said nothing. This guy talks just as much, but out of both sides of his mouth. Now it's not the data itself, but some cryptic effect of the numbers on his models. But hey, he wants a more transparent FED. That is why we are now twice removed from what he sees. Does anyone understand a word this guy is saying and even believe a word he says from here on in?
FFFs are becoming more and more worthless as a gauge each day this guy is in office - just look at their volatility. That may be on purpose.
nitro
Greenspan talked alot and said nothing. This guy talks just as much, but out of both sides of his mouth. Now it's not the data itself, but some cryptic effect of the numbers on his models. But hey, he wants a more transparent FED. That is why we are now twice removed from what he sees. Does anyone understand a word this guy is saying and even believe a word he says from here on in?
FFFs are becoming more and more worthless as a gauge each day this guy is in office - just look at their volatility. That may be on purpose.
nitro
OK, time to take inventory:
1) FFFs pointing at 90% chance of rate hike in JUN. That is probably 100% priced in to market now.
2) the 10 and 30 each traded below 5% today, with the 10 staying below 5%. That means that longer term rates as seen by bond traders strongly disagree with FED on any hikes after JUN. [In theory- it could be that the world markets are driving these rates down based on flight to quality with world markets in freefall and the inversion is a short term effect.]
3) Best Buy had a good 1/4. Inflation is contained to commodity related goods, either directly or indirectly, and the consumer is still alive.
4) First of two inflation #s out. Pretty much as expected, maybe a little tamer.
5) Open Interest from shorts getting juicy.
6) Gold getting crushed, now below $600.
You do the math what this means.
nitro
1) FFFs pointing at 90% chance of rate hike in JUN. That is probably 100% priced in to market now.
2) the 10 and 30 each traded below 5% today, with the 10 staying below 5%. That means that longer term rates as seen by bond traders strongly disagree with FED on any hikes after JUN. [In theory- it could be that the world markets are driving these rates down based on flight to quality with world markets in freefall and the inversion is a short term effect.]
3) Best Buy had a good 1/4. Inflation is contained to commodity related goods, either directly or indirectly, and the consumer is still alive.
4) First of two inflation #s out. Pretty much as expected, maybe a little tamer.
5) Open Interest from shorts getting juicy.
6) Gold getting crushed, now below $600.
You do the math what this means.
nitro