NQ Price Action Journal

I will keep on going until 10:25 in this post (Blue vertical line)

After prices go back inside the range and start compresing around 91 a hinge is formed. At the open comes the BO, but unless I am looking at a lower interval (which I am not) I would´t have an entry signal here. Then comes a RET that starts at 9:34 (At least I think it is a RET in real time) until the LSH doesn´t hold and then it goes all the way to the top of the range, where buyers give up once again letting price drop in a free fall to the bottom of the range.

By this time (9:39) I see 89 as a the new boundary for the TR, and given the distance between top and bottom (4 points) I don't see how I could get anything interesting for my risk.

At 9:42 there is a new attempt to break on the side of the sellers, but it fails once again, no short there.

At 9:50 we are back at the top of the range, and then again at 9:56, so far my mind sees a small range and i am still not interested.

At 10:03 sellers fail once again to break below S at 89.

At 10:14 things change, and I actually had an open order at 94.75 that was trailed until prices went back inside the range.
 

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Quote from dbphoenix:

Wrong. You do nothing until 1138. Do you see why?
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I think I led you to confusion, what I meant was that I was going to describe the behavior in the post until 10:25. I was planning on following with the rest of the chart after your reply.

I can see that I should not do anything until the first RET of the actual BO, but for me that was at 11:27, I actually took the trade at that time but got stopped, then I missed the entry at the failure to break inside the TR and shorted the RET that I Closed at the break of SL.

My question is, why don't you consider that 11:27 could be a valid entry?
 

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Quote from niko:

I think I led you to confusion, what I meant was that I was going to describe the behavior in the post until 10:25. I was planning on following with the rest of the chart after your reply.

I can see that I should not do anything until the first RET of the actual BO, but for me that was at 11:27, I actually took the trade at that time but got stopped, then I missed the entry at the failure to break inside the TR and shorted the RET that I Closed at the break of SL.

My question is, why don't you consider that 11:27 could be a valid entry?
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There's nothing to follow. If price moves back into the range, you stop, and you don't start again until price leaves the range. You say you're "trapped" in chop, but instead you rush toward it eagerly, with a big sign on your back.

When price re-enters the range, stop.

As for 1127, depends on your tactics and your data provider. If you place your sellstop 1pt away from the crest of the retracement, you may or may not be stopped into a short depending on your platform. If you aren't, then you aren't. The better entry is at 1138. Why? Because price reaches the trendline which you haven't drawn from the swing high at 95 and the next swing high at 92+ (@1106).

Point is there are no trades here between the morning's failed short and a possible short at 1127. If you try to trade this anyway, then you haven't clearly defined "chop", which is why you keep getting whipped by it.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

There's nothing to follow. If price moves back into the range, you stop, and you don't start again until price leaves the range. You say you're "trapped" in chop, but instead you rush toward it eagerly, with a big sign on your back.

When price re-enters the range, stop.

As for 1127, depends on your tactics and your data provider. If you place your sellstop 1pt away from the crest of the retracement, you may or may not be stopped into a short depending on your platform. If you aren't, then you aren't. The better entry is at 1138. Why? Because price reaches the trendline which you haven't drawn from the swing high at 95 and the next swing high at 92+ (@1106).

Point is there are no trades here between the morning's failed short and a possible short at 1127. If you try to trade this anyway, then you haven't clearly defined "chop", which is why you keep getting whipped by it.
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Thanks, I will take your comments into account, as always, I have a question though.

When you say that the 1138 move is a better entry because price reached the TL, does it mean that you keep the TL from the high at 95 and don´t fan it out after the new low at 11:19?.
 

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Quote from redbox:

Quote from dbphoenix:

. So your first task is to define it properly. (Chop)

I would define chop as a state where buyers and sellers push price way past the midpoint of each move up or down.

In this state, it's difficult to see or define who is taking the lead as there are no small retraces in one direction or the other ?
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By this definition will you also be qualifying trading channels as chop?, as the >50% RET is common in that kind of environment.
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Quote from niko:

Thanks, I will take your comments into account, as always, I have a question though.

When you say that the 1138 move is a better entry because price reached the TL, does it mean that you keep the TL from the high at 95 and don´t fan it out after the new low at 11:19?.
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Actually I don't keep it at all. I just look at the swings. Clearly it's aligned with them within a few ticks. Plus it's finding resistance from all those little congestions. Plus the rapid and extreme failure at the top of that retracement. All of this says "short" at least as well as the previous retracement.

Again, if price is in a range or re-enters a range, just leave it alone. Eventually you may want to try trading the tops and bottoms of ranges again, but in the meantime stick with trends.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

Again, if price is in a range or re-enters a range, just leave it alone. Eventually you may want to try trading the tops and bottoms of ranges again, but in the meantime stick with trends.
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Will do.
 
Quote from niko:

By this definition will you also be qualifying trading channels as chop?, as the >50% RET is common in that kind of environment.
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Ah yes of course, I forgot to add that this would be accompanied with lateral movement.
 
Daily:

The trend is clearly up, making new highs so we are in new territories, R will be identified as it appears on PA. There is of course the top of the TC but that is pretty far away for me to worry about it in intraday.

Hourly

After a strong upswing yest afternoon on fed data sellers started to push hard after 7:00 today and made the first strong downwave. We are still far away from the DL, so we are still in an uptrend, if one is looking to short this market, the opps won´t be found in the 60 min charts.

5 min

Here we can see how the uptrend from 4:00 was taken out by sellers around 6:10 this morning, they managed to take prices towards 228 where they found S at the TR from 2:00 to 4:00. At the time of the post looks like buyers are retaking control of the market. After a BO from the TR.
 

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