NQ Price Action Journal

[niko]

We are again in a TR, I have S at 27 and R at 35-37. I see some differences in this TR, as I could find some actionable setups at the extremes, still don't trade this market as I am in my avoid the chop campaign, so by now I will just observe what kind of TRs provide enough width to be operable.

The origin of the TR comes from Premarket, S is the top of last night hinge, that served as S at 2:00 today, R at first was at 35 from early morning LH, but then buyers were able to test 37 in several occasions So i think the current R is 37

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

We are again in a TR, I have S at 27 and R at 35-37. I see some differences in this TR, as I could find some actionable setups at the extremes, still don't trade this market as I am in my avoid the chop campaign, so by now I will just observe what kind of TRs provide enough width to be operable.

The origin of the TR comes from Premarket, S is the top of last night hinge, that served as S at 2:00 today, R at first was at 35 from early morning LH, but then buyers were able to test 37 in several occasions So i think the current R is 37

This isn't a trading range; it's a series of lower highs and lower lows. Even though the only R here is the swing high at 37.5, an "actionable setup" would be the lower high a half hour later.

And at this point you now have a hinge.

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

This isn't a trading range; it's a series of lower highs and lower lows. Even though the only R here is the swing high at 37.5, an "actionable setup" would be the lower high a half hour later.

And at this point you now have a hinge.

Yep, I can see the hinge.

I have a question, why is 27-28 not a valid S, it held prices during the morning.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

Yep, I can see the hinge.

I have a question, why is 27-28 not a valid S, it held prices during the morning.

Depends on what you mean by "held". Since price broke below 28, I'd be looking for a short entry. But traders dithered for 12m before deciding to go up instead, which would put me back into the congestion. The lower high is a cleaner trade. If it had instead made a higher high, I'd look to go long on the first retracement.

Don't forget that people are moving these prices back and forth.

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Depends on what you mean by "held". Since price broke below 28, I'd be looking for a short entry. But traders dithered for 12m before deciding to go up instead, which would put me back into the congestion. The lower high is a cleaner trade. If it had instead made a higher high, I'd look to go long on the first retracement.

Don't forget that people are moving these prices back and forth.

Yep, I can see why the LH was the way to go. I guess I would have taken it if I did not think I was on a TR, (the magenta square on the chart).

Hard day for my reading. The kind I have to deal with if I really want to learn.

 

[niko]

Db, I have a question regarding the break of 28. Couldn't it be considered a failure given the volume at the break and the fact that sellers withdrew just a minute after in order to take the long?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

Db, I have a question regarding the break of 28. Couldn't it be considered a failure given the volume at the break and the fact that sellers withdrew just a minute after in order to take the long?

You're seeing support where none exists. A single touch of 28 at 0850 does not constitute support, particularly since most traders won't even see it (if you plot this on a 15m or 30m or even a 60m interval, you'll see what I mean: there's no support, just lower lows). Therefore, any breach of it is irrelevant. The important failure is the failure of the higher high. If you want to go long, then you want to see that higher high breached. If you re-enter at what you perceive as the bottom in hopes that price will do just that, then you're just running back into the congestion again.

Trend is more important than a move from 15 to 14 or 9 to 10. To trivialize it by applying it to inconsequential moves renders it useless. Yes, the 4yr trend is up, and according to AMT price will most probably reach 34-3500. And one can decide on that basis to trade long only (which given what I've seen in the Straight Line thread and elsewhere would not be such a bad idea). But that doesn't mean pulling oneself out of the mud with a teaspoon by going long on every "reversal" off "support"; it means buying the first retracement after price has broken out to the upside. There was no such retracement here after price broke out to the upside, at least until after it fell below the last swing high at 0530, in which case the trade is off anyway.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from dbphoenix:
pulling oneself out of the mud with a teaspoon

Ah! the silky touch of your words Db. Had I only met you when I was younger

Gringo

 

[niko]

Daily;

Looks like bulls were not happy about exiting the TC and decided to push for a reentry, this is still looking like a RET so far so will have to see if buyers have the strength to take prices higher towards the top of the TC and into new highs.

Hourly

I am not sure here, are we in a hinge or in a TC? Anyone....

If in a hinge will have to wait for a BO to confirm direction if on a TC we could find R around PDH around 20, the thing is that a BO to the upside will also mean a BO of the TC and will look like a HH in the daily. Interesting...

5 min

Sellers gave up at the 50% of yest range and are currently in an uptrend. 1st level of R is yest high around 20.

 

[niko]

1. After finding S at 13, and breaking the downtrend around 9:15, price started making HHs and HLs, at the open sellers pushed but were rejected by buyers. As can be seen the entry is at the H of the last bar. There was a RET at prelim R at 20 (PDH), but it held so the trade was kept open until the break of DL

2. My reading was LH and DL break around PDH, so I placed a short, this one did not work out well. And I am not sure about how to Stop and Reverse so I just waited for more information.

3. The RET stopped ticks away from DL and I took the long, Kept it untill DL was broken.

4.This is where it gets tricky, I had the LH and the break of DL at R (above to be precise), It took the short but it did not work, my first reading after this is chop (bias to work on), here it was what happened

5. Sellers tried to break out of the chop, but failed and were sucked back into it. And then came the perfect entry that I was unable to get it. Dunno how!

6. I was expecting a RET but the LL in the bar was not what i had in mind so I passed. Guess i am still thinking in bars. Have to remember that price is a movie.

7. RET around S, finally failed and called it a day.