November Trading Journals
- Thread starter Hitman
- Start date
While He may be "driven & disciplined", He is also insolent, dogmatic, and frequently irrational, particularly for someone with LESS than 2 years experience and unprofitable to date (by His own standards).
He dismisses dottom out of hand only on the basis of his p&l, but we are to accept His notions based on what...His p&l? His 'extensive' market experience? His results? LOL
And I just love His I'm "brutally honest" pronouncements. As if the rest of us here are less than forthright. Being "brutally honest" does not give you the right to run roughshod over everyone & everything you chose.
Also, brutal honesty does NOT mean that you are brutally RIGHT!
JustMy2CentsWorth.
FIREHAWK
He dismisses dottom out of hand only on the basis of his p&l, but we are to accept His notions based on what...His p&l? His 'extensive' market experience? His results? LOL
And I just love His I'm "brutally honest" pronouncements. As if the rest of us here are less than forthright. Being "brutally honest" does not give you the right to run roughshod over everyone & everything you chose.
Also, brutal honesty does NOT mean that you are brutally RIGHT!
JustMy2CentsWorth.
FIREHAWK
I posted this awhile back:
"On LBR's chat site this morning re: Steenbarger's study of traders,
"Accomplished traders are not necessarily well-balanced, likable human beings. Indeed because of their intense focus on their work and their competitiveness these traders can come across as abrasive and self-absorbed. Nor are they necessarily highly creative and open-minded people........"
I wonder if he was talking about discretionary or systematic traders?
"On LBR's chat site this morning re: Steenbarger's study of traders,
"Accomplished traders are not necessarily well-balanced, likable human beings. Indeed because of their intense focus on their work and their competitiveness these traders can come across as abrasive and self-absorbed. Nor are they necessarily highly creative and open-minded people........"
I wonder if he was talking about discretionary or systematic traders?
If you think that you can devise a system that can be fully automated to trade, then you are totally wrong. All you new traders out there have to realize that the market is traded by HUMAN BEINGS not machines, not super computers.
I have said many times that "systems trading approach" does not equal "100% mechanical". My system generates a signal and *I* have to execute on it. This is part of the discipline. I also have to apply MM techniques and be aware of the risk factors associated with every signal.
let's say Bill Gates got caught with a hooker in a cheesy motel. MSFT sells off really hard, can your system predict that? Can your system cut your losses quick enough? What if you come back from lunch and you saw that MSFT went down 1.8 points, but has not reached the X stop loss that your system generated, would you sell and get out?
Any competent trader, systems or discretionary, would either go flat or have his stops protective in place if he could not watch the market in real-time. If I was long MSFT, my stoploss was 2.0 way, and it dropped 1.80 when I got back from lunch I would do nothing, b/c it hasn't hit my stop yet. Maybe later we learn that it's all a rumor and MSFT rallies. I don't care what the fundamentals are, the point is I know exactly what I'm going to do based on price, period.
If you say that the anomalies will correct itself, because according to your system , you should be long for X days and since your stop is not violated
You are making a common misconception of many critics of systems-trading approach. My system does not PREDICT anything. It does not know what will happen tomorrow. It simply reacts to conditions where the PROBABILITY of winning is greater than the PROBABILITY of losing, that's all. When I post stats about the historical performance of price after a continuation gap, I have never ever said "price will reach this price so mortgage your house and buy". I use the PROBABILITY of price to move a certain way to increase my chances of winning, that's all.
JUST BECAUSE SUGAR ALWAYS GAPS UP ON X DAY AND THIS HAS HAPPENED 10 YEARS IN A ROW AND YOUR SYSTEM TELLS YOU TO GO LONG, DOESN'T MEAN SUGAR IS GOING TO GAP UP THIS YEAR!!
This is an obvious example of a "system" that is based on coincidence and is not statistically significant. I wouldn't even blink if someone gave me this stat. I'd throw it out the window. This is classic Bernstein seasonal approach that has been scientifically proven to be flawed.
And just because RSI says a stock is overbought, doesn't mean anything if some big funds wants to unload their position, the stock will tank. Just because the stock is down 50% doesn't mean it cannot go down another 50% REGARDLESS OF WHAT YOUR SYSTEM SAYS, the market will do WHATEVER the market wants to do !!!!!!!!!!!
Again you misunderstand the use of systems-trading. It is not trying to PREDICT anything, only REACT. If some large fund unloaded their position prices will react in a certain way. What happens when the fund is done unloading his position? How does price react? Is it now oversold and will there will be a small bounce? A systems approach will evaluate this and enter only when the odds of winning and greater than the odds of losing. mechanical TRADING systems DO NOT PREDICT ANYTHING! They only react.
because THE MARKET IS TRADED BY HUMANS WITH EMOTIONS!! THAT'S WHAT ALL THE RESISTANT AND SUPPORT IS ALL ABOUT, FEAR AND GREED. If you don't believe in this, then you are not understanding the whole concept of the game.
You just gave a great support for a mechanical way of viewing the markets. Market participants are driven by fear & greed, hence the appearance of support & resistance is very real, and the tendency for price to behave a certain way around S/R is very real and can be analyzed. The system traders tries to these TENDENCIES and PROBABILITIES to his advantage. I never know if S/R will hold or not, that is not the point, I am NOT predicting anything. I am using probabilities to win more than I lose.
As far as averaging $250 / day. Well I find it a little hard to believe if you have been trading for 8 years and you trade futures as well. If you were doing this part time, I would understand but for someone who does this full time for 8 years?? I am scratching my head.
You do not know my situation and comparing P/L again is irrelevant. I have not been trading F/T the entire 8 years, and I have not been daytrading that entire time. I was not profitable right from the get go. I only mention the 8 years b/c someone asked me how long I have been trading. I know people trading for 20 years who are losing this year and have an average under zero. Are they incompetent as well? $250/day is what I average day trading, it doesn't say anything about my entire investment portfolio, nor should it matter. I state facts and provide support for facts. The only people who seem to care about P/L are discretionary traders who judge a the merit of a person's opinion based on their P/L? Talk about being naive and ignorant. If I said I made $2500/day would that make a different in your opionion of my approach?
I think the whole point of this message board is to HELP each other and not to use it to stoke our own ego. If makes no difference is you believe in what dottom has to say or offer, take whatever you think is good and discard the rest. However, do care about other people's feeling, as some might take it the wrong way, and shut off the communication lines.
I agree 100%. I post my methodology and specific reasons why I do what I do. I answer people's questions in depth and with concrete formulas and examples where appropriate. I never said I have the holy grail and my way is better than your way. My way is one way and it works for me, to each his own.
I have no EGO about this. I didn't start any personal attacks on anybody!!! If you read carefully, Hitman was the one who jumped out at me saying I don't know shit and my opinions are not valid b/c of this reason and that reason. I didn't start anything, but I will definitely defend myself.
I have said many times that "systems trading approach" does not equal "100% mechanical". My system generates a signal and *I* have to execute on it. This is part of the discipline. I also have to apply MM techniques and be aware of the risk factors associated with every signal.
let's say Bill Gates got caught with a hooker in a cheesy motel. MSFT sells off really hard, can your system predict that? Can your system cut your losses quick enough? What if you come back from lunch and you saw that MSFT went down 1.8 points, but has not reached the X stop loss that your system generated, would you sell and get out?
Any competent trader, systems or discretionary, would either go flat or have his stops protective in place if he could not watch the market in real-time. If I was long MSFT, my stoploss was 2.0 way, and it dropped 1.80 when I got back from lunch I would do nothing, b/c it hasn't hit my stop yet. Maybe later we learn that it's all a rumor and MSFT rallies. I don't care what the fundamentals are, the point is I know exactly what I'm going to do based on price, period.
If you say that the anomalies will correct itself, because according to your system , you should be long for X days and since your stop is not violated
You are making a common misconception of many critics of systems-trading approach. My system does not PREDICT anything. It does not know what will happen tomorrow. It simply reacts to conditions where the PROBABILITY of winning is greater than the PROBABILITY of losing, that's all. When I post stats about the historical performance of price after a continuation gap, I have never ever said "price will reach this price so mortgage your house and buy". I use the PROBABILITY of price to move a certain way to increase my chances of winning, that's all.
JUST BECAUSE SUGAR ALWAYS GAPS UP ON X DAY AND THIS HAS HAPPENED 10 YEARS IN A ROW AND YOUR SYSTEM TELLS YOU TO GO LONG, DOESN'T MEAN SUGAR IS GOING TO GAP UP THIS YEAR!!
This is an obvious example of a "system" that is based on coincidence and is not statistically significant. I wouldn't even blink if someone gave me this stat. I'd throw it out the window. This is classic Bernstein seasonal approach that has been scientifically proven to be flawed.
And just because RSI says a stock is overbought, doesn't mean anything if some big funds wants to unload their position, the stock will tank. Just because the stock is down 50% doesn't mean it cannot go down another 50% REGARDLESS OF WHAT YOUR SYSTEM SAYS, the market will do WHATEVER the market wants to do !!!!!!!!!!!
Again you misunderstand the use of systems-trading. It is not trying to PREDICT anything, only REACT. If some large fund unloaded their position prices will react in a certain way. What happens when the fund is done unloading his position? How does price react? Is it now oversold and will there will be a small bounce? A systems approach will evaluate this and enter only when the odds of winning and greater than the odds of losing. mechanical TRADING systems DO NOT PREDICT ANYTHING! They only react.
because THE MARKET IS TRADED BY HUMANS WITH EMOTIONS!! THAT'S WHAT ALL THE RESISTANT AND SUPPORT IS ALL ABOUT, FEAR AND GREED. If you don't believe in this, then you are not understanding the whole concept of the game.
You just gave a great support for a mechanical way of viewing the markets. Market participants are driven by fear & greed, hence the appearance of support & resistance is very real, and the tendency for price to behave a certain way around S/R is very real and can be analyzed. The system traders tries to these TENDENCIES and PROBABILITIES to his advantage. I never know if S/R will hold or not, that is not the point, I am NOT predicting anything. I am using probabilities to win more than I lose.
As far as averaging $250 / day. Well I find it a little hard to believe if you have been trading for 8 years and you trade futures as well. If you were doing this part time, I would understand but for someone who does this full time for 8 years?? I am scratching my head.
You do not know my situation and comparing P/L again is irrelevant. I have not been trading F/T the entire 8 years, and I have not been daytrading that entire time. I was not profitable right from the get go. I only mention the 8 years b/c someone asked me how long I have been trading. I know people trading for 20 years who are losing this year and have an average under zero. Are they incompetent as well? $250/day is what I average day trading, it doesn't say anything about my entire investment portfolio, nor should it matter. I state facts and provide support for facts. The only people who seem to care about P/L are discretionary traders who judge a the merit of a person's opinion based on their P/L? Talk about being naive and ignorant. If I said I made $2500/day would that make a different in your opionion of my approach?
I think the whole point of this message board is to HELP each other and not to use it to stoke our own ego. If makes no difference is you believe in what dottom has to say or offer, take whatever you think is good and discard the rest. However, do care about other people's feeling, as some might take it the wrong way, and shut off the communication lines.
I agree 100%. I post my methodology and specific reasons why I do what I do. I answer people's questions in depth and with concrete formulas and examples where appropriate. I never said I have the holy grail and my way is better than your way. My way is one way and it works for me, to each his own.
I have no EGO about this. I didn't start any personal attacks on anybody!!! If you read carefully, Hitman was the one who jumped out at me saying I don't know shit and my opinions are not valid b/c of this reason and that reason. I didn't start anything, but I will definitely defend myself.
Think about what all these have gotten us?
1. We are more aware the difference between discretionary and systematic approach. I still don't think that machine is going to beat the humans that create them, but then again this is my opinion.
2. We have learned that a lot of us are VERY passionate about our job / career as a trader, to me that is GREAT! I wouldn't want to belong to a club / society / community that is not otherwise.
3. We also have learned that it is very important to care about other people's feelings. Just because you have a system that works, it doesn't mean your system is THE ONLY ONE that will work, and BASHING other people will hurt their feelings and will accomplish nothing.
4. While we are proud of our own accomplishments and goals, we should not KNOCK other people's believes and systems because, they are just as proud if not even more. And if you do want to criticize other people's technique, please be able to back up yours with some hard facts.
5. In the end, as I have said before and I will say again, this is a forum when ideas and information flows freely. Everybody is entitled to have their own opinions and feelings about anything, THERE IS NO RIGHT OR WRONG OPINIONS, it is just our opinions. However if you criticize other people, make sure you take extra care in the way you do it because, not everybody is accustomed to or agree with YOUR OWN STYLE OF DELIVERY. If someone tells you that you hurt their feelings then, you have to apologize. IT DOESN'T MATTER weather you think you are right or not, the point is we should be able to discuss our opinions without BASHING EACH OTHER TO DEATH.
With that being said, I still think a lot of good came out of all these.
Good job everyone.
1. We are more aware the difference between discretionary and systematic approach. I still don't think that machine is going to beat the humans that create them, but then again this is my opinion.
2. We have learned that a lot of us are VERY passionate about our job / career as a trader, to me that is GREAT! I wouldn't want to belong to a club / society / community that is not otherwise.
3. We also have learned that it is very important to care about other people's feelings. Just because you have a system that works, it doesn't mean your system is THE ONLY ONE that will work, and BASHING other people will hurt their feelings and will accomplish nothing.
4. While we are proud of our own accomplishments and goals, we should not KNOCK other people's believes and systems because, they are just as proud if not even more. And if you do want to criticize other people's technique, please be able to back up yours with some hard facts.
5. In the end, as I have said before and I will say again, this is a forum when ideas and information flows freely. Everybody is entitled to have their own opinions and feelings about anything, THERE IS NO RIGHT OR WRONG OPINIONS, it is just our opinions. However if you criticize other people, make sure you take extra care in the way you do it because, not everybody is accustomed to or agree with YOUR OWN STYLE OF DELIVERY. If someone tells you that you hurt their feelings then, you have to apologize. IT DOESN'T MATTER weather you think you are right or not, the point is we should be able to discuss our opinions without BASHING EACH OTHER TO DEATH.
With that being said, I still think a lot of good came out of all these.
Good job everyone.
Dottom, nice to have you here... you add to the debate and that is fine. But I would appreciate it if you showed a bit more respect to Hitman in terms of your tone... OK, you may not like his style, but Hitman is an old-timer on these boards (who happens to be popular for his journals), and I would personally prefer to see less friction from you to him (things like calling Hitman a jerk on his thread serves no useful purpose).
Candle, I didn't start *anything*. Hitman was the one who said I was my opinions are without merit based on my P/L, etc. And I said he was a jerk only because he offered it. He specifically said:
I don't mean to be a jerk, but but 8 year's worth of experience and $250 a day doesn't really match.
The last thing anyone should worry about on this board is how much someone has made or doesn't make. I am averaging $250/day on my daytrading, which is 60% gain on my daytrading based on a $100k portfolio. So I'm full of shit because I haven't pushed this to $250k or $300k?? Please. I didn't start with $100k 8 years ago. I wasn't profitable for all 8 years. It took me awhile to get where I am. I am hoping that if all goes well I will gain more and more each year and my portfolio will be 7 digits, but the fact that Hitman flatly said that my opinions and meaningless and without merit solely on one glimpse into my P/L is offensive.
I didn't start anything, Candle.
Candle, I didn't start *anything*. Hitman was the one who said I was my opinions are without merit based on my P/L, etc. And I said he was a jerk only because he offered it. He specifically said:
I don't mean to be a jerk, but but 8 year's worth of experience and $250 a day doesn't really match.
The last thing anyone should worry about on this board is how much someone has made or doesn't make. I am averaging $250/day on my daytrading, which is 60% gain on my daytrading based on a $100k portfolio. So I'm full of shit because I haven't pushed this to $250k or $300k?? Please. I didn't start with $100k 8 years ago. I wasn't profitable for all 8 years. It took me awhile to get where I am. I am hoping that if all goes well I will gain more and more each year and my portfolio will be 7 digits, but the fact that Hitman flatly said that my opinions and meaningless and without merit solely on one glimpse into my P/L is offensive.
I didn't start anything, Candle.