The ten games winning streak came to a bloody conclusion as I was blown out of the water right off the open. The pain almost paralyzed me as I couldn't believe how hard I was hit in such a short period of time, the damage was amplified as I was on a mission to up my size just a little this week. At 10:30AM, I was shooting 4 of 16 and down almost $2K.
I fought back, inch by inch, dollar by dollar, and when it was all said and done I was able to cut the damage in half in what was the highest number of stocks/shares I have ever traded in a game. 39000 shares each way on 12 of 29 shooting, -69 before commissions, -1015 after, 1 bullet.
The sequence of the events today will be in my memory for a long time, I really didn't think I was capable of being blown out so fast and so hard after all those wins, but in a single loss like this I really learned more than I ever did during the winning streak and got my head checked once again.
Pre-Market: Felt just like any other day, a bunch of bank downgrades but some retail upgrades. Grabbed a morning muffin and it sure tasted like rock when I bite into it around lunch time, traded all day long and did not go eat until the market was closed.
9:30: I don't normally play energy right off the open, but last a few days they have been tanking off it so I saw a size open print on DO, and I bulleted 700 shares, I was filled at the precise bottom of that move at 26 and two prints later it hit 26.30 with the offer at 26.42. I wanted to wait a little and see what happens, as it was hardly a size print and I thought he was playing games, next print, boom, 26.75, and I covered there. Throw in the bullet cost, a $600 loss to open up the day. I ended up trading 10000 shares in him each way, and ended up making $5 on him after commissions, unfortunately, I did not slow down the tempo of the game after that big hit like I normally would, and the subsequent trades really got out of hand. So whole DO was actually a winner when it is all said and done, it was the nail on my coffin today. Natural shorted some CRA on futures gap down, again, extremely uncharacteristic, I have been very reluctant to trade the short side given the strength of the market, and I lost 20 cents there, when the specialist fills you on a natural short this early in the game, it is usually a bad sign. When DO squeezed I thought gas would rebound too like the oils, and I took APA and APC, lost 10 cents on APC and 5 cents on APA. Way too aggressive there, any time you take a big hit, slow down the tempo of the game immediately, take a few small scalps here and there and wait for a clear shot. Just like that, I was down $900, no winner, all loser.
9:45: Futures rebounding, went long FMC/APD on CEX strength, took some DNA on BTK rebound, I knew the consumer confidence number will be out today at 10AM, but that hit in DO paralyzed my brain, and by the time M said "Oh consumer confidence number will come out soon", I already saw a big red bar in my face.
10:00: Uncharacteristic, totally uncharacteristic, futures just tanked, I bailed market on FMC for a 3 cents loss, bailed on APD for a 5 cents loss, and I held one of the most volatile stocks on NYSE, DNA, to see "what will he do?". After all, I got in at 57.65, and I had more than enough prints to get out for a quarter loss, but I had 500 shares and I decided to take a chance, unwilling to take a quarter loss. I thought that dip on futures was a buying opportunity, as the market has been super strong, I thought it was an overreaction. But the market has been so overbought and people are looking for excuses to sell it, and if I am going to hold on to something, hold something slow, don't be the one holding a serious hot potato.
10:10: The fatal mistake, I went long TYC at 58.71 expecting a bounce as he was hitting the offer with size, same with MMM, went long at 115.75 expecting a squeeze, and worst of all, DNA just spreaded half a point on me, "he is going to squeeze", I doubled my position into 1000 shares. This works in a strong market, when the market is trending up, and the stock tanks half a point for no reason, buy and you usually get a nice pop. But for a fast mover like DNA, when the futures is coming in like that, when you are already down more than 1K on the day, what was I smoking? And I watched the stock hitting 56.50 as I watched my P&L dip to a deficit $1500, a little bounce, he hit 56.20, ouch, I may as well give him the figure as I put in a hard stop on everything at 56, futures started to squeeze, and I got out on half at 56.81, the other half at 56.50. I got out of TYC for a dime loss, out of MMM for a 30 cents loss. The point is, if you are going to play a bounce scalp, go for something that is extremely liquid, so if you are wrong, you don't take the extra spread damage. I really don't think it was a loss of discipline that I averaged down to a loser trade, it was simply because DNA has been my number four best stock of all time, and I feel confident trading him, I think I know his tape tricks and I really thought I would have bought 57 and sold everything at 57.25. The problem was that I was looking at a huge deficit, and the pain paralyzed my brain, and I just could not afford such a big big deficit. Let's just say, it is fortunate that I did not lose multiple points on DNA with a full 1000 share position, because at the moment I was stunned, and I was vulnerable to the "how much lower can it go before an inevitable squeeze" syndrome. Why did I sell market APD/FMC, two much less damaging stocks first when I could have dumped DNA for a 15 cents loss, I did have the right instinct to get out first ask questions later, this is the question I will ask myself all night, why didn't I get out of DNA, the kind of stock that can really ruin your day?
10:26: I was seriously having a flash back of my all time worst game ever ($4K deficit, which started out the exact same way, I was trying to up my size a little bit, ambushed off the open, caught off guard and saw a $2K deficit before I could say ouch, I cut it down to as little as $500 and then just a total collapse from there). I knew had I traded on, I could have possibly ruined my month, but I also told myself that it has been more than 6 months since I took that brutal hit, and I have matured and developed as a trader. What happened was a diaster trade, it was my fault, but amplified by the sequence of events (it hurts just too much to take a big hit, a small pause and then an even bigger hit). I talked to myself for five minutes and I saw an energy pop. Took some NBL and made 40 cents. Almost loaded up the boat with SGY, CVX, DO, KMG, as I gradually pared into stuff, unfortunately, while the energy ran hard today, it wasn't a smooth ride up (like I desperately needed it), basically, anytime there is a breakout you should pareout, and wait for a dip then you buy it. I tried to pyramid into breakout's, and it just didn't work. Left a tons of cash on the table with every energy I touched, and I got out of everything as my confidence was just not there anymore after the brutal hits. My priority was to not lose anymore money, so whenever I had a chance to take a little off the table I did. A look at the score, I was down $1650 after what seemed to be a decent energy pop. Yes, I did make a few hundred dollars and on any other day it would have felt like some half decent trades, but on a day like today, it felt like I didn't even put a dent into that big deficit.
11:01: HI had a little consolidation, took some natural shorts and lost 20 cents immediately. That trade was called desperation, as my only savior, energy rally couldn't help me to make a serious comeback, and I had to find something else, and I was hit again.
11:11: Second leg on energy, tried NE, EPG, SGY again, got out of SGY way too early, as I never truly believed in my calls after the brutal open, at least I made 20 cents there, out of NE for flat, churned a lot of EPG today as he was choppy and ended up flat before commissions but lost quite a bit with commissions. Tried MMC and XL on IUX breakout, MMC was incredibly choppy and hit me for 10-20 cents on more than one occassion, but XL I was able to pull 35 cents off. Churned more DO, took some AVP on M's call who was also down big, lost 15 cents there as the RLX rebound didn't happen. A look on the P&L, it is 12PM, and I was still down $1750, a dreadful, doomed feeling.
12:00: BTK going up, CRA had a nice base took some for a quick 20 cents scalp, no volume but he moved up another half a point anyway. Churned more DO. This is the biggest problem when you are down big: small scalps won't put serious dent into that deficit, you need big winners, but to get big winners you need to use wider stops and bigger size, and you can really really get smoked even more as your psychology already bottomed out. Tried some FRX and took another 15 cents hit. The good thing about a big deficit, when you take a $75 loss, it felt numb . . .
1:00: Scalped more DO, it started to eat into me that now I am only down $200 in him and it was the stock that killed my entire open game, FRX bottomed out near yesterday's low, got a quarter scalp. Tried DNA long again, ouch, lost another quarter. I really wish I bought him back when futures made that run to 10K.