Not 97% but .3% of Climatologists agree.

[Lucrum]

The 97 Percent Figure on Global Warming the Media Won't Tell You About

By Kevin Mooney | November 18, 2013 | 20:21

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/kevin-...rming-media-wont-tell-you-about#ixzz2l3D06c8P


There’s a magic number the news media likes to cite whenever the United Nations releases a new report on Global Warming. The public is constantly told that 97 percent of scientific experts agree that human activity is responsible for dangerous levels of global warming. Therefore, the U.S., and other western nations, must dramatically reshape public policy with an eye toward reducing fossil fuels. But it doesn’t take a lot of investigation to take down that 97 percent figure and expose the gamesmanship and duplicity advanced under the cover of “science.”

Lawrence Solomon, executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers, carefully explains how dishonest researchers cooked the books:

“The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois,” he wrote in a 2010 article. “The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers – in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change. The ratio 75/77 produces the 97 percent figure that pundits now tout.”

This rejoinder to the 97 percent figure concerning the so-called “scientific consensus” is not typically reported as it would complicate the political agenda attached to global warming alarmism. But there is a new 97 percent number concerning the latest U.N. report that goes unmentioned. John Droz, a physicist and mathematician, who heads up the Alliance for Wise Energy Decisions (AWED), has just released an independent study that shows 97 percent of the computer models attached to the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) overestimate the amount of carbon dioxide induced warming. Droz’s study probes into the draft version of the U.N.’s Fifth Assessment, which was released in September.

“How come we don’t see the media publicizing this 97 percent consensus?” he asks. “In light of these realities, for the IPCC to claim that they now have an even higher confidence in their conclusions, is simply political posturing to justify their existence. The bottom line is that there is an extraordinarily large amount of understanding of this issue that we simply do not have. To spend tens of trillions of dollars to ‘fix’ something we don't understand is insanity.”

There’s more. The final version of the Fifth Assessment should at least account for the prognostications that were made in the Fourth Assessment that have not materialized.

For starters, the global average surface temperature increase in the latter half of the 20th Century is only about half of what the U.N. foresaw. And as has been frequently discussed, there has not been any significant increase in surface temperatures since about 1998.

Believers in anthropogenic global warming usually respond to these changes by claiming that while the surface climate has not become warmer in many years, the average temperature of the Earth’s deep oceans has increased during the same time-period. Unfortunately, such statistics tend to overwhelmingly rely upon comparisons of the recent and accurant international ocean measurement Argo with unreliable historical data gathered in the past by navy ships from various countries. Unlike the politicized scientists seeking to abuse its data, Argo has admitted that its data cannot be readily used for historic comparisons:

“The global Argo dataset is not yet long enough to observe global change signals. Seasonal and interannual variability dominate the present 7-year globally-averaged time series. […] Analyses of decadal changes presently focus on comparison of Argo to sparse and sometimes inaccurate historical data. Argo's greatest contributions to observing the global oceans are still in the future, but its global span is clearly transforming the capability to observe climate-related changes.”

It may well be that ocean temperature data could support the claims of global warming believers but at the present time, it is scientific problematic to do so.

Since the final version of the Fifth Assessment will not be released until January, there is ample time to make the necessary adjustments to reflect neutral scientific research.

“If there are substantial changes in a conclusion in the AR5 relative to a confident conclusion in the AR4, then the confidence level should not increase and should probably drop, since the science clearly is not settled and is in a state of flux,” Judith Curry—Chairman of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech and a long-time IPCC contributing author,” has said. “While there has been a reduction in either the magnitude of the change or in a confidence level in some of the supporting findings, these changes do not seem to have influenced the main conclusion on climate change attribution.”

That conclusion from the IPCC being that “It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the increase in global average surface temperature from 1951-2010.” – This is what the Fifth Assessment currently declares. That’s what needs to be taken down by honest members of the press.

 

[gwb-trading]

Quote from futurecurrents:

The idea that essentially every science organization in the world (with NONE disagreeing) and Exxon and The Weather Channel and BP and NOAA and NASA and Japanese Met Agency and The Met Office agrees, but somehow only 50% or 0.3% of climatologists do also, is absurd on the face of it and an idea only entertained by the most delusional and ignorant of denialist morons.

It's time to put down your crack pipe and stop posting.

 

[jem]

the old fallacious appeal to authority.
not backed by any science... just govt propaganda and dollars.

I am here for the science not leftist bullshit and the influence they can purchase.

Quote from futurecurrents:

Jem, THIS is what NASA says......


Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities,1and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources.


AMERICAN SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES
Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations
"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009)2
AAAS emblem
American Association for the Advancement of Science
"The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society." (2006)3
ACS emblem
American Chemical Society
"Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem." (2004)4
AGU emblem
American Geophysical Union
"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system — including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons — are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century." (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed 2007)5
AMA emblem
American Medical Association
"Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant." (2013)6
AMS emblem
American Meteorological Society
"It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide." (2012)7
APS emblem
American Physical Society
"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now." (2007)8
GSA emblem
The Geological Society of America
"The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s." (2006; revised 2010)9


SCIENCE ACADEMIES
International academies: Joint statement
"Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." (2005, 11 international science academies)10
USNAS emblem
U.S. National Academy of Sciences
"The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." (2005)11


U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
USGCRP emblem
U.S. Global Change Research Program
"The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases. Human 'fingerprints' also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice." (2009, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies)12


INTERGOVERNMENTAL BODIES
IPCC emblem
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”13

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”14

*IPCC defines ‘very likely’ as greater than 90 percent probability of occurrence.



http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

 

[jem]

remember this is the original post.

Quote from jem:

97% claim exposed / debunked.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/...ven-by-a-new-paper-showing-major-math-errors/


“0.3% climate consensus, not 97.1%”

PRESS RELEASE – September 3rd, 2013

A major peer-reviewed paper by four senior researchers has exposed grave errors in an earlier paper in a new and unknown journal that had claimed a 97.1% scientific consensus that Man had caused at least half the 0.7 Cº global warming since 1950.

A tweet in President Obama’s name had assumed that the earlier, flawed paper, by John Cook and others, showed 97% endorsement of the notion that climate change is dangerous:

“Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous.” [Emphasis added]

The new paper by the leading climatologist Dr David Legates and his colleagues, published in the respected Science and Education journal, now in its 21st year of publication, reveals that Cook had not considered whether scientists and their published papers had said climate change was “dangerous”.

The consensus Cook considered was the standard definition: that Man had caused most post-1950 warming. Even on this weaker definition the true consensus among published scientific papers is now demonstrated to be not 97.1%, as Cook had claimed, but only 0.3%.

Only 41 out of the 11,944 published climate papers Cook examined explicitly stated that Man caused most of the warming since 1950. Cook himself had flagged just 64 papers as explicitly supporting that consensus, but 23 of the 64 had not in fact supported it.

 

[jem]

you are either a science moron or the biggest troll.
your quote is monumentally stupid and ignorant and pretty much proves you have no idea of how to think in systems.

Quote from futurecurrents:

No CO2 does not cause cooling in the part of the atmosphere we are interested in. It causes warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere. We don't live in the stratosphere. This is basic science which you still don't understand. Your ignorance is astounding.

 

[gwb-trading]

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate change/Climate model results/over estimate.pdf

 

[Ricter]

Quote from gwb-trading:

Well put.

The end is near, high taxes!
The end is near, soaring interest rates!
The end is near, crushing debt!
The end is near, government deficits!
The end is near, socialism!
The end is near, minority voters!
The end is near, gay marriage!
The end is near, Obamacare!

 

[futurecurrents]

Quote from jem:

you are either a science moron or the biggest troll.
your quote is monumentally stupid and ignorant and pretty much proves you have no idea of how to think in systems.

OK, since you like it so much and it's true, here it is again


CO2 does not cause cooling in the part of the atmosphere we are interested in. It causes warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere. We don't live in the stratosphere. This is basic science which you still don't understand. Your ignorance is astounding.


Here's what the American Physical Society says


"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now."

 

[Max E.]

The 97 Percent Figure on Global Warming the Media Won't Tell You About

There’s a magic number the news media likes to cite whenever the United Nations releases a new report on Global Warming. The public is constantly told that 97 percent of scientific experts agree that human activity is responsible for dangerous levels of global warming. Therefore, the U.S., and other western nations, must dramatically reshape public policy with an eye toward reducing fossil fuels. But it doesn’t take a lot of investigation to take down that 97 percent figure and expose the gamesmanship and duplicity advanced under the cover of “science.”

Lawrence Solomon, executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers, carefully explains how dishonest researchers cooked the books:

“The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois,” he wrote in a 2010 article. “The survey results must have deeply disappointed the researchers – in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change. The ratio 75/77 produces the 97 percent figure that pundits now tout.”

This rejoinder to the 97 percent figure concerning the so-called “scientific consensus” is not typically reported as it would complicate the political agenda attached to global warming alarmism. But there is a new 97 percent number concerning the latest U.N. report that goes unmentioned. John Droz, a physicist and mathematician, who heads up the Alliance for Wise Energy Decisions (AWED), has just released an independent study that shows 97 percent of the computer models attached to the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) overestimate the amount of carbon dioxide induced warming. Droz’s study probes into the draft version of the U.N.’s Fifth Assessment, which was released in September.

“How come we don’t see the media publicizing this 97 percent consensus?” he asks. “In light of these realities, for the IPCC to claim that they now have an even higher confidence in their conclusions, is simply political posturing to justify their existence. The bottom line is that there is an extraordinarily large amount of understanding of this issue that we simply do not have. To spend tens of trillions of dollars to ‘fix’ something we don't understand is insanity.”

There’s more. The final version of the Fifth Assessment should at least account for the prognostications that were made in the Fourth Assessment that have not materialized.

For starters, the global average surface temperature increase in the latter half of the 20th Century is only about half of what the U.N. foresaw. And as has been frequently discussed, there has not been any significant increase in surface temperatures since about 1998.

Believers in anthropogenic global warming usually respond to these changes by claiming that while the surface climate has not become warmer in many years, the average temperature of the Earth’s deep oceans has increased during the same time-period. Unfortunately, such statistics tend to overwhelmingly rely upon comparisons of the recent and accurant international ocean measurement Argo with unreliable historical data gathered in the past by navy ships from various countries. Unlike the politicized scientists seeking to abuse its data, Argo has admitted that its data cannot be readily used for historic comparisons:

“The global Argo dataset is not yet long enough to observe global change signals. Seasonal and interannual variability dominate the present 7-year globally-averaged time series. […] Analyses of decadal changes presently focus on comparison of Argo to sparse and sometimes inaccurate historical data. Argo's greatest contributions to observing the global oceans are still in the future, but its global span is clearly transforming the capability to observe climate-related changes.”

It may well be that ocean temperature data could support the claims of global warming believers but at the present time, it is scientific problematic to do so.

Since the final version of the Fifth Assessment will not be released until January, there is ample time to make the necessary adjustments to reflect neutral scientific research.

“If there are substantial changes in a conclusion in the AR5 relative to a confident conclusion in the AR4, then the confidence level should not increase and should probably drop, since the science clearly is not settled and is in a state of flux,” Judith Curry—Chairman of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech and a long-time IPCC contributing author,” has said. “While there has been a reduction in either the magnitude of the change or in a confidence level in some of the supporting findings, these changes do not seem to have influenced the main conclusion on climate change attribution.”

That conclusion from the IPCC being that “It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the increase in global average surface temperature from 1951-2010.” – This is what the Fifth Assessment currently declares. That’s what needs to be taken down by honest members of the press.



Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/kevin-...rming-media-wont-tell-you-about#ixzz2l3UNOx2Q

 

[futurecurrents]

American Geophysical Union

"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system — including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons — are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century." (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed