No, you don't need a trend

Excellent question. The honest answer is, at this point in my trading career I don't want to change. If market conditions changed to the point where it trended 85% of the time I would have no choice. If I didn't switch I'd be done. For now, I stick with what works.

Also, experience has taught me, if I don't take profits I will give them back so I just flat out take them and forget about what happens next. About 2 weeks ago I had a 2 point profit and I didn't take it. Guess what happened. Yep, the market turned on me. I had to fight the market tool and nail and I came out of the trade with 3 ticks, overall. I'm still kicking myself for that mistake.

Actively taking profits is what works for me. Just find what works and do it over and over and over again -- that's what trading is all about.

Quote from athlonmank8:

If simply assuming that markets remain in 3 stages..uptrend, downtrend, or sideways for equal amounts of time.

That would imply you could only trade 1/3 of the time. With trending being the most "profitable" (at least in theory). Why not hone your skills a bit on trending? I mean, you obviously have quite a bit of the puzzle right now.
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Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

And it IS possible to pick a bottom. It's high risk, but only if you don't know what you are doing.
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Looks like 1-min charts? Do you have other charts up like 5-min, 15-min ,ect?
 
The 1's are my trigger chart. I watch every time frame up to the monthlies. I look for my entries on the longer time frames (mostly the 5's, 10's and 15's) and nail them down on the 1's.

Quote from X-11:

Looks like 1-min charts? Do you have other charts up like 5-min, 15-min ,ect?
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Quote from athlonmank8:

I liked your style up until you mentioned you fade a trend.

I really hope you do ok in the long run.

Why not put those dual MA's to better use?
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If you don't mind, I would like to hear more about how do you use dual MA's.
Thanks,
 
I use a 5 ma on all time frames. It's a flow and mean meter. The farther the price gets from the MA's the more likely it will revert back to it. On this chart I have the 5 and the 25 ma. The 25 is the 5ma on the 5 min chart.

Quote from Hombre:

If you don't mind, I would like to hear more about how do you use dual MA's.
Thanks,
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Now let's talk about <b>setting stops!</b> As I said yesterday, I don't set stops in a traditional way. I "build" positions, then set my stops. This trade is a perfect example. I triggered long at 65.50, a bit early because I wanted 65.00 but I took it at 65.50 because I thought it was ready to run. Obviously the price went below my fill. Do I stop out? Hell no! In fact, that blue line below was my order to buy more. This is my method of "building" a position. You can't time the futures market -- or any market for that matter -- perfectly. You'll get wrecked by randomness. I'm guessing 95% of traders don't buy the random walk theory but that explains why 95% lose.

Now comes the important part......once the trade gets underway I convert that order sitting down there to a stop. The downside risk when my order executed was low. Once the trade turned profitable the downside risk increases DRAMATICALLY. Why? Because all the traders who are buying this move now become sellers at lower prices --- traders are getting sucked in so supply is increasing at a dramatic rate. In fact, look at the market now. We're close to taking out that low. +1.75 on the trade. All I did was take profits like a fool. If I don't I will give them back!

If we go to a new low I'm buying again. I go out of my way to hunt for areas where the stops are. Once they get triggered the market will recover and I will buy.
 

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Here's another beauty and a perfect example of how to manage your account.

Real quick....stops are getting hit around 63.00 so I buy. Not the bottom -- DOH! Not a problem, I buy more at 61.50. Why don't I stop out down there? I cannot time the market perfectly and neither can you so stop trying. If I stop out there I'm stuck with a loss on a WINNING TRADE! I don't put in bottoms, I buy bottoms.

Take a partial at 62.75 -- there are two reasons for this. First, obviously take profits but second, manage risk through taking profits. Can this still go lower? You bet and I don't want to ride it down will a full load. No big deal with a partial load.

Now you see that blue line down there? Once I took a partial I placed an order to buy more. That's right, I'm not stopping out down there I'm buying more. I have the profit I just took to use as a cushion if we go lower.

The next exit was at 63.50 -- that's where I made my money. The second exit is where I make my money, the first is more for managing risk. Now we are going lower again and I will start this process all over again.
 

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Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

Here's another beauty and a perfect example of how to manage your account.

Real quick....stops are getting hit around 63.00 so I buy. Not the bottom -- DOH! Not a problem, I buy more at 61.50. Why don't I stop out down there? I cannot time the market perfectly and neither can you so stop trying. If I stop out there I'm stuck with a loss on a WINNING TRADE! I don't put in bottoms, I buy bottoms.

Take a partial at 62.75 -- there are two reasons for this. First, obviously take profits but second, manage risk through taking profits. Can this still go lower? You bet and I don't want to ride it down will a full load. No big deal with a partial load.

Now you see that blue line down there? Once I took a partial I placed an order to buy more. That's right, I'm not stopping out down there I'm buying more. I have the profit I just took to use as a cushion if we go lower.

The next exit was at 63.50 -- that's where I made my money. The second exit is where I make my money, the first is more for managing risk. Now we are going lower again and I will start this process all over again.
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I am lost for words PTF.

regards
f9
 
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