Quote from Big Money:
Respectfully, only amateurs and beginners make hard and fast predictions like that. Now you have your ego involved by telling everyone you think this is a bottom and will defend that and it may cost you money. Amateurs predict and want to be right, pros just want to make money. A price in the market is never too high and never too low. Just because we are down 35% does not mean things are not necessarily going lower. Is it a bottom? I donât know and I donât care. Whose fault is it and why? Yes it is bad but again, I donât care as it relates to my trading.
I am a trader so I only care about taking what the market will give me and donât care why it is happening. Up or down doesnât matter. Movement is what I want. You should enjoy the volatility and make as much as you can because it never lasts.
Remember, human nature doesnât change. History will always repeat itself. This is just another bubble. There have been many in the past and there will be many more in the future. Only the instruments of doom change over time. Tech bubble, S & L bubble, real estate bubble, derivatives bubble and tulip bubble. Only the name of what causes the bubble changes. Position yourself accordingly and take advantage of these occurrences.
The most important thing you can learn from this is that you are on your own to do your research and make your bets accordingly. Why so many people expect unbiased advice and/or assistance from those who have a vested interest in perpetuating a cycle still boggles my mind. Do you think a tech analyst during the tech bubble is really going to hurt their own IB relationships and give a negative report about a stock, even if they make no money? Do you expect a mortgage broker, whose job and income is based on making loans, to warn you about potential pitfalls in every aspect of your loan? It is their job to put a positive spin on every product so long as they donât lie about it. Just like a tech analyst. Just like it is every salesmanâs job. Your job as an adult is to make your decision and do what is best for you. So if you get an ARM loan, when rates are at historical lows, and donât plan for the fact that they may go up or even consider that, then you are not an adult and deserve whatever happens. Donât even get me started about the rating agencies (S & P, Fitch, Moodys, etc.) that helped cause this latest calamity. In interviews they still say they are doing a great job of analyzing exotic instruments and somehow really believe it. Life, like the futures markets, offers great opportunities and low entry barrier costs. But markets are not designed to protect people from themselves and shouldnât be. As an adult, you make your decisions and LIVE with the consequences of your choices. That is what being an adult is supposed to be about.
Good luck to all.
BM
