No "natural" herd immunity - multiple patients catch COVID-19 with symptoms a second time

[Tsing Tao]

I doubt whether more than one virus strain is floating around a naval carrier and Guam at this point.

I have no idea how you can make this assertion. I'm not sure if you read a post I made previously, but I am very good friends with someone here in Tampa that works at the base, and he is responsible for the US Military Pandemic Preparation plans (on the team that is responsible, that is). He's quite knowledgeable about this and I mentioned your comment at lunch (just so happens we had lunch at noon today). He said it was ridiculous - at any given time there are multiple strains of many different viruses going around the military on specific bases, ships, staging areas, etc. It is absolutely not uncommon from personnel movements.

 

[gwb-trading]

I have no idea how you can make this assertion. I'm not sure if you read a post I made previously, but I am very good friends with someone here in Tampa that works at the base, and he is responsible for the US Military Pandemic Preparation plans (on the team that is responsible, that is). He's quite knowledgeable about this and I mentioned your comment at lunch (just so happens we had lunch at noon today). He said it was ridiculous - at any given time there are multiple strains of many different viruses going around the military on specific bases, ships, staging areas, etc. It is absolutely not uncommon from personnel movements.

My understanding is that the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier made one port call for 5 days in Dang, Vietnam from March 5 to 8th. The sailors were only allowed off the ship during a 48 hour period during the port call. This is the port call where COVID-19 was picked up onshore by sailors.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt stayed at sea after this until many sailors were sick with COVID-19 and the captain escalated his concerns. After this the ship stopped at Guam -- which had no known existing COVID-19 cases prior the ship showing up. The sick sailors were taken off and quarantined in hotels.

Due to the probability that COVID-19 was only picked up on one location during a port call of the ship is why I believe it is likely that only one strain is on the ship. Unless you believe there were multiple strains running around Dang, Vietnam during a 48 hour period that infected the sailors.

 

[Tsing Tao]

My understanding is that the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier made one port call for 5 days in Dang, Vietnam from March 5 to 8th. The sailors were only allowed off the ship during a 48 hour period during the port call. This is the port call where COVID-19 was picked up onshore by sailors.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt stayed at sea after this until many sailors were sick with COVID-19 and the captain escalated his concerns. After this the ship stopped at Guam -- which had no known existing COVID-19 cases prior the ship showing up. The sick sailors were taken off and quarantined in hotels.

Due to the probability that COVID-19 was only picked up on one location during a port call of the ship is why I believe it is likely that only one strain is on the ship. Unless you believe there were multiple strains running around Dang, Vietnam during a 48 hour period that infected the sailors.

Ok, I'm not going to argue what you can't prove or disprove. You like to do that a lot - make claims based on incomplete data and then go with them as if they are undeniable facts like some keyboard warrior who googles his way to the truth. Telling us what people said in meetings you weren't in. Telling us what virus strains are present on a naval vessel based on when it made port.

What a joke.

They had enough time to pick up Covid 19 while in port, but there is no way they could have had enough time to pick up other strains of any other viruses, right? Sailors are so health conscious.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

A vaccine actually is the virus itself injected into your body to develop your immunity.

Pretty much. That has been the traditional source of vaccines but times are also a-changing.

To be more precise though, a vaccine includes antigens- ie. protein bodies-usually- that are either from the actual virus or separately derived proteins that mimic the vaccine and "trick" the body into producing the same antibodies that a real virus does.

I think, for example, the Moderna vaccine that everyone is buzzing and salivating over today and driving the market is based on an antigen that mimics a virus but is not actually virus-derived. Not sure yet, need to read up more, but certainly that statement applies to many/most of the vaccines in progress.

Just as a little reminder for some, the antigen is "the bad guy", the invader, while the antibodies are the "good guys" that show up to bind to all the sticky places on the antigen to keep it from being able to stick to cell parts and damage you. So if you introduce a fake virus type of antigen (something that the body thinks is a virus) the body produces the same antibodies (or codes a memory of how to produce when needed) and then when a real virus comes around it is locked and loaded and ready to go. It's a beautiful thing.

 

[gwb-trading]

Ok, I'm not going to argue what you can't prove or disprove. You like to do that a lot - make claims based on incomplete data and then go with them as if they are undeniable facts like some keyboard warrior who googles his way to the truth. Telling us what people said in meetings you weren't in. Telling us what virus strains are present on a naval vessel based on when it made port.

What a joke.

They had enough time to pick up Covid 19 while in port, but there is no way they could have had enough time to pick up other strains of any other viruses, right? Sailors are so health conscious.

How many strains at that time were mutated and circling in one city in Vietnam at that time? I doubt whether it was more than one was present in the city this early in the timeline for a 48 hour period. It's not like these sailors stopped in many different ports over a few days like they were on a cruise ship.

If there are multiple strains of a disease then many times mutations are close enough that one provides immunity for the other closely related strain. For COVID-19 however we don't know yet if you even get immunity to the same strain when you get infected. There is building evidence -- including this naval vessel -- that people are catching COVID-19 with symptoms a second time. This is unfortunate and will likely make eradicating the virus much more difficult.

 

[Tsing Tao]

How many strains at that time were mutated and circling in one city in Vietnam at that time?

Who knows? You certainly don't.

I doubt whether it was more than one was present in the city this early in the timeline for a 48 hour period. It's not like these sailors stopped in many different ports over a few days like they were on a cruise ship.

Doubt all you want. The fact is that any given time in any given place there are multiple cold viruses and flu viruses doing the rounds. You can't just say "they got one virus but there's no chance they got another". What a joke that statement is!

If there are multiple strains of a disease then many times mutations are close enough that one provides immunity for the other closely related strain. For COVID-19 however we don't know yet if you even get immunity to the same strain when you get infected. There is building evidence -- including this naval vessel -- that people are catching COVID-19 with symptoms a second time. This is unfortunate and will likely make eradicating the virus much more difficult.

Total made up guess work. A possibility, I'll grant you. But nothing more than guess work. Instead of acting like the authority you clearly aren't (no matter how many articles you post), why not continue researching all available possibilities and consider all alternatives, even if they don't fit your narrative?

 

[Cuddles]

Could anyone anti herd immunity person explain how a vaccine would work to build up immunity but not exposure to the actual virus?

This is a serious question for those who say there can not be herd immunity?
Why then would you believe vaccines will work?

Because a high number of people with antibodies is needed to achieve herd immunity. This is only feasible with a vaccine deployed en masse or decades of continued exposure.

 

[jem]

Tell us the assumptions you are making about the R0 of a virus you are modeling for herd immunity.

Now tell us what the R0 is for Covid 19
Now tell us how you know it is the same in Stockholm... New York and say San Diego?

you can not make blanket statements like that without having great data.
Herd immunity differs for each virus and disease.

How do you know it wont happen in Stockholm?

Because a high number of people with antibodies is needed to achieve herd immunity. This is only feasible with a vaccine deployed en masse or decades of continued exposure.

 

[gwb-trading]

Who knows? You certainly don't.



Doubt all you want. The fact is that any given time in any given place there are multiple cold viruses and flu viruses doing the rounds. You can't just say "they got one virus but there's no chance they got another". What a joke that statement is!



Total made up guess work. A possibility, I'll grant you. But nothing more than guess work. Instead of acting like the authority you clearly aren't (no matter how many articles you post), why not continue researching all available possibilities and consider all alternatives, even if they don't fit your narrative?

Are you trying to claim these sailors only got sick from cold viruses and flu viruses they picked up in Vietnam despite testing positive for COVID-19?

Aligned with the statement from the military, I am stating that the testing obviously shows the first five sailors got COVID-19 with symptoms including testing positive, then recovered, tested negative twice, were placed back on the ship, acquired symptoms again, tested positive, and were removed from the ship again.

Your claim it is two different strains of COVID - I very much doubt it in this situation since the ship only had one port stop before the outbreak. In fact I think that any medical professional would very much doubt that this situation involves two different strains of COVID-19 due to the timeline and single port exposure.

If the situation involves two different strains then I expect this will eventually come out in the naval medical investigation. It may be that the COVID-19 virus can re-activate post recovery after being dormant for a period of time and re-infect a person. Time will tell.

Bottom line the news about the 13 sailors on the aircraft carrier is bad news from any angle. Either people can re-infected from others with the same strain, or they can become active again after virus becomes dormant, or that one strain does not provide immunity against another strain (which makes vaccine development difficult). Any of the above means that "natural herd immunity" is a pipe dream and not realistic.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Are you trying to claim these sailors only got sick from cold viruses and flu viruses they picked up in Vietnam despite testing positive for COVID-19?

Of course not. I'm saying I have no idea what happened. I'm also saying neither do you. Of the two of us, I am the one who is not pretending to have an answer I cannot possibly have.

Aligned with the statement from the military, I am stating that the testing obviously shows the first five sailors got COVID-19 with symptoms including testing positive, then recovered, tested negative twice, were placed back on the ship, acquired symptoms again, tested positive, and were removed from the ship again.

And the tests can't possibly be incorrect or inaccurate, or pick up a false positive from another strain or have had false negatives, or any other number of possibilities. Has to be the same virus can suddenly defy what every other virus can't, right? Has to be.

Your claim it is two different strains of COVID - I very much doubt it in this situation since the ship only had one port stop before the outbreak. In fact I think that any medical professional would very much doubt that this situation involves two different strains of COVID-19 due to the timeline and single port exposure.

1. I'm not making any claim. I'm saying it is a possibility. We. Just. Don't. Know.
2. You can doubt whatever you want. Free country. But you're not qualified to speak for a medical professional because you're an IT guy and - apart from your googling - have no knowledge of this. At least not professionally.

If the situation involves two different strains then I expect this will eventually come out in the naval medical investigation. It may be that the COVID-19 virus can re-activate post recovery after being dormant for a period of time and re-infect a person. Time will tell.

Time might tell. If the facts come out and the process was done accurately.

Bottom line the news about the 13 sailors on the aircraft carrier is bad news from any angle. Either people can re-infected from others with the same strain, or they can become active again after virus becomes dormant, or that one strain does not provide immunity against another strain (which makes vaccine development difficult). Any of the above means that "natural herd immunity" is a pipe dream and not realistic.

Or there is something you and I haven't thought of. But at least one of the above possibilities is likely. And given that one of the above is likely, we shouldn't rely on keeping the economy locked down outside of flattening the curve, which we already have. So lets get on with the rest of our lives and deal with it.