Hmmm.....just checked but my data only goes back to 1980. Will she bounce off support?
Nikkei Tanking
- Thread starter chasinfla
- Start date
Based on the C.Y. 2000 CPI index of 100, prices have gone from 80 in 1982 to 98.9 for 2001. If you look at it from a Dollar perspective, I think the rate 20 years ago was 350 yen to the dollar compared to today's 117. The funny things about this is that Japan is expected to surprise to the upside this year in GDP growth unlike other large economies. It sure ain't getting any lovin.
I think official japan already spend enormous amount of money keep the nikkei above 8.000. It seems essential for the banking sector and thus for large parts of the economy that portfolio holdings need not be devaluated.
Now with the nikkei dipping at 8.000 the thing could further destabilise IMO. Don't forget that the japanese debt to GDP ratio is at 150% or something like that, with huge increase in recent years. Before everything is really devastated I doubt real recovery can take place. They already tried everything in the world wide prospering nineties. Why should it work now without them solving their major problems or let the market solve them?
peace
Now with the nikkei dipping at 8.000 the thing could further destabilise IMO. Don't forget that the japanese debt to GDP ratio is at 150% or something like that, with huge increase in recent years. Before everything is really devastated I doubt real recovery can take place. They already tried everything in the world wide prospering nineties. Why should it work now without them solving their major problems or let the market solve them?
peace
Hello there, for a while it looked like Nikkei was in a bottoming process, but its a nasty break this last one. There really seemed to be like a floor (official buying? ) around 8250-ish which now is broken. The nice MACD divergence also failed.
For the long-only crowd, prudent entry if this turns out to be a false break could be around 8500 with stops round 8250. Or if it proceeds to close below 8000, buy on an upward crossing of the same figure looking for 8250. Different kind of play though.
Currency is also a a major factor.
Chart at
http://211.120.61.3/cgi-bin/beta/ch...3e6c692c&code=1011&with=&width=974&height=974
Take care
For the long-only crowd, prudent entry if this turns out to be a false break could be around 8500 with stops round 8250. Or if it proceeds to close below 8000, buy on an upward crossing of the same figure looking for 8250. Different kind of play though.
Currency is also a a major factor.
Chart at
http://211.120.61.3/cgi-bin/beta/ch...3e6c692c&code=1011&with=&width=974&height=974
Take care
sorry, cant get the link to work. Its at http://www.technobahn.com/english click your way
North Korea lobbing nukes from a couple miles away doesn't help either, which has basically coincided with the last break.