Nikkei Tanking

Yes, they get fired and they jump off the train platform.

This is a real fact, and there's at least 4-5 people who do it everyday and common that it doesn't get on the news. 95% of the suicides are men who got fired from their jobs. They get to pressured with personal family problems and lose sense of the optimism towards the future that they do it.

There's a lot of bad stuff going on in Japan that you don't hear in the US news....
 
WD, can you validate something for me? It is my understanding that the real problem with Japan is their financial system. It is systemically bankrupt by western accounting standards. Banks don't have to declare loans as defaulted untill they have been in arrears for three years. Companies can obfuscate their real financial peformance and value because of the reporting requirements. They only have to report a value for the parent co. I.E. if GM were Japanese and Buick, Chevy, Olds, and Pontiac were losing money but Cadillac was making enough to cover the loses plus a dollar we would only know that GM was making money when in fact, by western standards, the whole co. was on the brink along with the creditor banks that wouldn't have to report GM as defaulting for three years. They can't remedy this without bankrupting an entire segment of society, their version of the baby boomers, and thier culture won't let them do this. Is this close to the reality of the situation?
 
Yes, Nikkei is tanking and probably the worst is yet to come. Look at U.S. stock index, Dow Jones Ind. Average. The average return per year adj. for inflation is only 2.738% in 1913 - 2002 period. From 1913 to 1982 there was no real growth :eek:
If DJIA will fall to 5,300 there will be zero real growth from the 1965 peak.

Source: http://people.internet2.edu/~shalunov/stock-market/
 
According to my calculations S&P 500 index real return per year is 3.61% from 1950 to present. I wonder what's the real return for Nikkei 225 and German DAX :D
 
banjo - you're pretty much on target.

first, i believe their accounting still uses this way - either present value OR value when purchased, whatever you want. so if you bought something at $50, and it's worth $1, you can value it at $50.

the keiretsu system is great when things are going up, but when going down, there is considerable pressure on strong companies to bolster weaker ones - not allowing them to collapse. therefore, the weak ones suck the life out of the strong ones.

also, because of concerns over saving face, many solutions can't be implemented - too much loss of face.

if japan ever lets some of the big ones fail, i'd look to put long term investment money into japan 6-12 months later. but i don't know if they'll do that...
 
DT-waw
I never look at it like that, but it is frightening to realise the illusory nature of our world wide growth scenarios. strange system we live in ...


peace
 
man, nothing strange here. According to http://people.internet2.edu/~shalunov/stock-market/ the real U.S. GDP growth in 1929-2002 period was 3.33% p.a. almost the same as real S&P growth. Of course when you add taxes, commissions & slippage costs, return on stocks can be much lower.

Japanese and European economies are much less free-market oriented than American, so their GDP and stocks growth rates are lower. In recent years - even flat.
 
gov't pumping money into the stock market isn't usually a good idea. i would think that would attract shorts the way a duck attracts buckshot.

unless for some reason this time it works.
 
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