Niederhoffer's year end contest! ($2500 prize for 3 best 2011 trading ideas)

[thoreau777]

Quote from Visaria:

No, but i certainty believe you may be.

"While Niederhoffer had a publicized hiccup, some of his trainees fared well because they added rigor and methodology to their statistical inference. In other words, Niederhoffer's empiricism missed just a modicum of methodology."

page 101, Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2001 Hardback edition

(available from Amazon and all good bookshops, I suggest you buy a copy)

Visaria,

First, you wrote the sentence "No, but i certainty believe you may be."


Taleb's quote, "missed just a modicum of methodolgy" is not the same as his indicating that Victor has "no method" as you exhorted. Are you even aware of the definition of the word "modicum"? Please think about that before you respond. And please put down that drink.

He was not stating as sine qua non that Victor had no methodology. He merely felt Victor could improve on his methodology. An analogy is if someone says "the soup needs just a little more salt". It does not imply that the soup has no salt whatsoever. Still, I personally completely am at odds with Nassim at his implication. He is completely mistaken. However, based on your terrible writing skills and grammar and spelling errors, it is likely you are not proficient in English, and as such it is understandable that you made such a glaring error while interpreting Nassim's erroneous statement.

If this is your case, then you are faultless and blameless. I am completely in support of you if you made an innocent mistake because of a language barrier. If this is not the case, then the local community college likely has ESL classes starting next semester.

All the best, T

P.S. I do have Mr. Taleb's book. By the way, how do you think Mr. Taleb's funds have done since the bottom of the markets in 2009? At the very bottom, he was on record as being extremely bearish, just as the SPX futures rose nearly 100% now. He was going LONG puts at the very bottom of the market.

 

[kinggyppo]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myopia

 

[[Proximo]]

Doesn't your ego ever get tired?

Quote from thoreau777:

Visaria,

First, you wrote the sentence "No, but i certainty believe you may be."


Taleb's quote, "missed just a modicum of methodolgy" is not the same as his indicating that Victor has "no method" as you exhorted. Are you even aware of the definition of the word "modicum"? Please think about that before you respond. And please put down that drink.

He was not stating as sine qua non that Victor had no methodology. He merely felt Victor could improve on his methodology. An analogy is if someone says "the soup needs just a little more salt". It does not imply that the soup has no salt whatsoever. Still, I personally completely am at odds with Nassim at his implication. He is completely mistaken. However, based on your terrible writing skills and grammar and spelling errors, it is likely you are not proficient in English, and as such it is understandable that you made such a glaring error while interpreting Nassim's erroneous statement.

If this is your case, then you are faultless and blameless. I am completely in support of you if you made an innocent mistake because of a language barrier. If this is not the case, then the local community college likely has ESL classes starting next semester.

All the best, T

P.S. I do have Mr. Taleb's book. By the way, how do you think Mr. Taleb's funds have done since the bottom of the markets in 2009? At the very bottom, he was on record as being extremely bearish, just as the SPX futures rose nearly 100% now. He was going LONG puts at the very bottom of the market.

 

[Visaria]

Quote from thoreau777:

Visaria,

First, you wrote the sentence "No, but i certainty believe you may be."


Taleb's quote, "missed just a modicum of methodolgy" is not the same as his indicating that Victor has "no method" as you exhorted. Are you even aware of the definition of the word "modicum"? Please think about that before you respond. And please put down that drink.

He was not stating as sine qua non that Victor had no methodology. He merely felt Victor could improve on his methodology. An analogy is if someone says "the soup needs just a little more salt". It does not imply that the soup has no salt whatsoever. Still, I personally completely am at odds with Nassim at his implication. He is completely mistaken. However, based on your terrible writing skills and grammar and spelling errors, it is likely you are not proficient in English, and as such it is understandable that you made such a glaring error while interpreting Nassim's erroneous statement.

If this is your case, then you are faultless and blameless. I am completely in support of you if you made an innocent mistake because of a language barrier. If this is not the case, then the local community college likely has ESL classes starting next semester.

All the best, T

P.S. I do have Mr. Taleb's book. By the way, how do you think Mr. Taleb's funds have done since the bottom of the markets in 2009? At the very bottom, he was on record as being extremely bearish, just as the SPX futures rose nearly 100% now. He was going LONG puts at the very bottom of the market.

Modicum = a moderate or small amount

(from http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/modicum)

Taleb's quote, "missed just a modicum of methodology".

I will translate it for you using the definition of "modicum":

Taleb's quote, "missed just A MODERATE OR SMALL AMOUNT of methodology" i.e. he had no methodology to start with and could have done with adding a small amount.

The correct "soup" analogy would be "soup needs a modicum of salt" which translates to "soup needs a little salt" i.e. it has no salt and would taste better if some were added.

I think you should attend the remedial English class instead of me.

As for Taleb "is completely mistaken", yes of course he is (I'm being sarcastic in case you're not sure).

All the best, V

P.S. I am glad you have Taleb's book. However, purchase is not enough, you do need to read it!

Btw, I have no idea how Taleb's funds have done and frankly, I'm not sure if I care.

P.P.S. I beg your pardon re the spelling mistake in my first sentence. My concern still remains, you really should quit whatever, no doubt illegal, substances you may be intoxicating yourself with.

 

[thoreau777]

Quote from [Proximo]:

Doesn't your ego ever get tired?

Dear Proximo,

I confess that I am confused. I believe with all my heart that I have very little ego which can be measured. I maintain that anybody with a large ego will blow out their account. In fact, I argue that a person's ego is inversely proportional to their trading performance. In order to trade well, you must have actually... no ego whatsoever.

I am pleased that you brought up the subject of ego, which many people ignore. People always bring up the three key ingredients to a successful trading career. That is 1) Sufficient Capital, 2) A Trading "Edge", and 3) Money Management. To that I must add 4) Ego-less trading.

Anyone I have met in my decades of trading maintained their success only if they kept their ego out of the equation. The market is a dynamic and completely unpredictable beast. And only the ones who bet against the crowd will be long term winners.

I thank you for bringing up the topic of ego. I would argue that it is the single most important ingredient for trading success. Without rule number 1, "Ego-less Trading Mind", you are doomed. If you have an ego that you bring to the markets, it is akin to giving a set of car keys and a bottle of whiskey to your Ferrari to your teenage bipolar 18 y.o. son who is going out on Prom night. Not a good idea...

 

[thoreau777]

Quote from Visaria:

Modicum = a moderate or small amount

(from http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/modicum)

Taleb's quote, "missed just a modicum of methodology".

I will translate it for you using the definition of "modicum":

Taleb's quote, "missed just A MODERATE OR SMALL AMOUNT of methodology" i.e. he had no methodology to start with and could have done with adding a small amount.

The correct "soup" analogy would be "soup needs a modicum of salt" which translates to "soup needs a little salt" i.e. it has no salt and would taste better if some were added.

I think you should attend the remedial English class instead of me.

As for Taleb "is completely mistaken", yes of course he is (I'm being sarcastic in case you're not sure).

All the best, V

P.S. I am glad you have Taleb's book. However, purchase is not enough, you do need to read it!

Btw, I have no idea how Taleb's funds have done and frankly, I'm not sure if I care.

P.P.S. I beg your pardon re the spelling mistake in my first sentence. My concern still remains, you really should quit whatever, no doubt illegal, substances you may be intoxicating yourself with.

Dear Ms. Visaria,

I cannot even begin to respond to your drivel. I will only embrace you and send you kindness. You are horribly mislead. Nassim would never be pejorative to Victor. He has too much respect for that. He once told me that Victor is the smartest person that he has ever met.

I cannot even begin to respond to your advice that I "attend the remedial English class". To say such a statement to me tells me and everyone else all that they need to know about you.

Please be aware... I send you nothing but good wishes and good will. You are merely mislead. I have made one or two mistakes in my own life as well. At first I was going to advise you to read the book "A Catcher in the Rye", but I believe you may have taken it the wrong way.

You writing indeed is just awful. Your only retort to me seems to be a pity comeback "maybe it is you that needs to no doubt illegal, substances you may be intoxicating yourself with".

It is the most silly comeback to reply with the exact same "insult". My four year old son can do much better. Please forgive me if I replied with intensity. You are simply a soul without a compass. Please remember this thread in many years, you will realize how sad your attempt was...

 

[thoreau777]

Quote from Visaria:

I think Victor N. is not particular thorough in his research.

Apart from selling out of the money puts, he does have some other strategies. One of these was particular bad. He was going to short British companies which had "aristocratic" type figures on the board of directors, for example a Lord or a Sir. His theory was that the companes had these guys on the board so as to make them look respectable sort of silver spooned guys who were just a bunch of upper class twits.

I dont know how his shorting went, but his theory was bunch of hooey. The Lords and knights who are directors very much tend be v experienced and successful business people who have been knighted or made into a lord BECAUSE they succeeded business.

As Taleb said of him, he lacks method.

Dear Ms. Visaria,

I ask you to merely read the above post that you wrote in your profound eloquence. My silence is deafening. I took some offense to it because aside from the fact that it is complete fabrication, the content, spelling and grammar are that of a 2 year old. But again, I am aware that you are taking an ESL class, so you have a legitimate excuse.

I must again clarify that I am not moved negatively by your post to me. I respect you and your posts. It just was such nonsense that I felt I needed to write a few words.

 

[thoreau777]

Quote from Visaria:

his theory was a bunch of hooey... As Taleb said of him, he lacks method.

Dear Ms. Visaria,

You likely are of Indian origin, as I have a few friends who share the surname "Visaria". I respect India immeasurably as a country and as a people, so I feel I need to send you more understanding and compassion. You attacked Victor without basis, and I admit I became just slightly upset. You must understand why I would take offense to such comments.

I have a profound sense of inner peace and humility towards the entire world. I have achieved a sense of stillness and equanimity that cannot be moved. Perhaps I erred in seeming agitated. I was not the least bit upset. I just wish to help you and others with my experience.

 

[Visaria]

Ms Thoreau,

I demonstrated the error in your definition of " modicum" which you didn't respond to but decided to personally attack me. I cannot waste any further time with you or to advise you further apart from to say you need serious psychological help.

Best wishes with your treatment.

Visaria

 

[thoreau777]

Quote from Visaria:

Ms Thoreau,

I demonstrated the error in your definition of " modicum" which you didn't respond to but decided to personally attack me. I cannot waste any further time with you or to advise you further apart from to say you need serious psychological help.

Best wishes with your treatment.

Visaria

Dear Visaria,


Please understand that I did not disagree with your definition of the word "modicum", only in your interpretation within the context of the quote. As I mentioned, you misinterpreted Nassim. I agree with your definition of the word "modicum", which is clear. As you mentioned in your "soup" analogy, I suppose one can interpret his words in the way you have.

Still, if you are familiar with his relationship with Victor, you would have correctly assumed the more proper tenor of Nassim's message. Had Nassim wrote, "missed EVEN a modicum of methodology" instead of "missed just a modicum of methodology", then your interpretation could be correct.

Regarding the analogy about the "soup" needing "only a modicum of salt", a person can interpret it again two ways: 1) He believes the soup does indeed have salt but could use a little bit more, or 2) He believes the soup does not have any salt AT ALL and could use just a bit of salt. You have chosen to believe in the latter sarcastic interpretation which incidentally is the one that belittles Victor. If you knew Nassim and Victor, you would have known unequivocally that the first 1) interpretation is the one Nassim meant. In order words, Nassim asserted that "Victor's methodology needed a bit more improvement" (not Victor's methodology is non-existent). As I mentioned before, the use of the word "just" instead of "even" in the quote proves my point.

I suppose that you misunderstood my intentions entirely. I welcome you and all others to our community at www.dailyspeculations.com and believe you are an intelligent and gentle soul. Please do not interpret my harsh words as any "attack" on you. I mean you no harm, but I felt that your initial message was a deliberate and vicious attack (where you referenced some inane strategy regarding Victor shorting companies where lords and knights reigned as a strategy in itself...absurd).

I reckon that the initial shock of such an attack on Victor caught me off guard (well, two attacks regarding the knights/lords and the Nassim quote), and I do admit to a "modicum" of disappointment in myself that I did not reply only with love and kindness. I admit I was angry, and I did not respond in the manner that I wished I had. Note please that it was you who drew "first blood" and drew your pistol first. Still, I should NOT have responded in kind. I wish you well, and please have a wonderful day and a profitable trading year. As they say in India and across the world, "Namaste".