Niederhoffer's year end contest! ($2500 prize for 3 best 2011 trading ideas)

Quote from EPrado:

Haven't you slaughtered enough of your sheep selling SP Puts?

Brilliant strategy...........I only know about 10000 other traders who have implemented the same strategy over the years. Go back to playing with your statistics books.
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EPrado,

All I can do when endeavoring to alleviate your ignorance is to breathe a deep sigh and just smile. I cannot become irritated at you, because I know who you are and what you represent. You must also think the world is flat, "Othello" is only some board game that resembles an ancient Asian "chess game" invented by Mattel, and the lunar landing was done in Nevada.

I am retired now, and I am loathe to imagine that the future of my many children rests in the hands of people such as yourself. Talking to you is like explaining particle physics to a 3 year old, who only just knows how to sit in the backyard, and dig a hole with a toothpick. It just cannot be done.

I do not know how I many iterations I must give, but Victor's strategies are not limited to "S P puts". It is just so ridiculous that I am speechless. It is like if your friend went into a Walmart 24 Hour Supercenter, bought a lighter, and came to you back in the car. Some poor soul such as yourself will come to the conclusion that the only product to be obtained at Walmart, Inc. is something to light an Altria product with...

Please do not feel a scintilla of negative emotion at my rather strong speech here. I am sure you have some kindness in your heart and you have allies in this world I am not Victor, but I take such drivel with high dudgeon and a speck of resentment...
 
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

Just trick him into investing in your fund...
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Dear Wayne,

If you knew Victor's fund performance at the end of this past year, you will cut your right arm off and give him your daughter for the opportunity to invest in his fund. Did you know that at many times he multiplied his money thousands of percent in a year, especially after his most difficult periods? That famously he turned $50,000 into nearly $50 million?
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Clearly.... :)

Or as Victor would say discernibly, indubitably, lucidly, perceptibly, sonorously, translucently,

P.S.: Surf, you know shit.... (Slapshott, Rodney and Hamster are all Surf in this thread)
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Pekelo,

I honestly do not know what to make of you. You do have a gentle wicked sense of humor, and that is something I appreciate deeply. Admittedly, do not confuse being "well read" with a grandiloquent arrogant way of writing. I am a rather humble person. It is my regular way to communicate, and in no way demonstrates any egotistical end. As a fellow spirit once wrote, "Everything must be explained as simple as possible, but not simpler" (Albert Einstein). My writing is not meant to obfuscate, but rather elucidate. I only wish to share my own trading knowledge, so that all who know me can benefit. There are no selfish ends to be uncovered here.

I only include myself here at ET because I wish to help others become better. Many here are completely, utterly, hopelessly lost in their trading. Their methods are nothing better than reading "tea leaves" or consulting an a $10 psychic. If they employed rigorous scientific testing, one that Victor really pioneered, they could improve their trading immeasurably.

As I am a rather old soul, I am quite sympathetic to their plight. Without reservation, if they would visit and endeavor to understand Victor's methods, their course to enlightened trading would be a shorter course. If you are sincere, I ask you to restrain your skepticism, and just be open to learning. I only want the best for you and others, and I ask nothing in return.
 
I think Victor N. is not particular thorough in his research.

Apart from selling out of the money puts, he does have some other strategies. One of these was particular bad. He was going to short British companies which had "aristocratic" type figures on the board of directors, for example a Lord or a Sir. His theory was that the companies had these guys on the board so as to make them look respectable, sort of silver spooned guys who were just a bunch of upper class twits.

I don't know how his shorting went, but his theory was a bunch of hooey. The Lords and knights who are directors very much tend to be v experienced and successful business people who have been knighted or made into a lord BECAUSE they succeeded in business.

As Taleb said of him, he lacks method.
 
Quote from Optionpro007:

Ok Thoreau, I'll bite. What were Vic's returns for last year?
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It appears that the returns varied from over 100% to one account multiplied 22 times. All these was done with a very low standard deviation of returns. The capture ratio and the "Up percentage ratio" were decidedly impressive.
 
The philosophical question of the day:

Quote from 1prometheus:

Tons of good ideas worth considering resulted from the contest!
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When you get 2 dozens of seemingly good tips, how do you choose which one to follow? Remember, only time will tell how successful they are.

If you hear only 1 good tip, you have a rather easy, take it or leave it choice. But when you have 20+? That is abundance disturbance....
 
Quote from thoreau777:

Pekelo,
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Sir, since I am not a native English speaker, your posts greatly helped me to increase my vocabulary, and for that I thank you.

In no way I was indicating that it was an egotistic approach to posting, rather I just noted that your choice of words is rather similar to Victor's. Since you are most likely familiar with statistics and probability, the chances that your vocabulary,age, style and knowledge are the same as Victor's but you are not him is shall we say, dim. But anyhow, if you wish to stay incognito, so be it, I won't spoil the fun.

Looks like you had a good year, congratulations!

p.s.: Occasionally you mix up the I/he, watch out for that. :cool:
 
Quote from thoreau777:

EPrado,

All I can do when endeavoring to alleviate your ignorance is to breathe a deep sigh and just smile. I cannot become irritated at you, because I know who you are and what you represent. You must also think the world is flat, "Othello" is only some board game that resembles an ancient Asian "chess game" invented by Mattel, and the lunar landing was done in Nevada.

I am retired now, and I am loathe to imagine that the future of my many children rests in the hands of people such as yourself. Talking to you is like explaining particle physics to a 3 year old, who only just knows how to sit in the backyard, and dig a hole with a toothpick. It just cannot be done.

I do not know how I many iterations I must give, but Victor's strategies are not limited to "S P puts". It is just so ridiculous that I am speechless. It is like if your friend went into a Walmart 24 Hour Supercenter, bought a lighter, and came to you back in the car. Some poor soul such as yourself will come to the conclusion that the only product to be obtained at Walmart, Inc. is something to light an Altria product with...

Please do not feel a scintilla of negative emotion at my rather strong speech here. I am sure you have some kindness in your heart and you have allies in this world I am not Victor, but I take such drivel with high dudgeon and a speck of resentment...
More...


All I know is VN blew out his hedge fund not once, but twice doing the same exact strategy. He lost ALL his clients money. His statistical studies told him that mkt goes up over the long term. So he does the 'easy" thing which is to sell SP puts. As long as there is not a fierce correction he would be ok. Brilliant strategy, picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. The hilarious part of his whole ordeal is he whined that it was the guys on the trading floors that caused him to get blown out.

VN is a very smart man, who has no idea how to trade or manage risk. The second time around he again thought he was too smart for the markets and got blown out. Pretty sad that he didn't learn his lesson the first time.

As far as this poster Thoreau....doesn't matter if it's VN or not. Like VN you act all high and mighty and talk like a professor at Harvard. That's great. But in the world of trading you can take your degree....your statistical studies......and unless you know how to manage risk, they don't mean a thing. I think the story of VN's failure should be told to every aspiring trader. Is a great example of what not to do and how to fail at trading.


And don't worry about your kid's future. As long as you weren't one of the investors in his first two funds their college money should be ok. IF you were, I'm sorry that VN lost your money and that some of you will have kids that will have big old college loans to pay out once they graduate.
 
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