We all want the Omicron variant to be milder. Here's why it's too soon to know
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/07/health/omicron-variant-milder-not-yet/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/07/health/omicron-variant-milder-not-yet/index.html
New Coronavirus Variant (Omicron; B.1.1529) a ‘Serious Concern’ in South Africa
- Thread starter ipatent
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Let us focus on the core issue you have been mispresenting.
Please provide data and studies establishing the vaccine breakthrough rate is only .5%.
So as to not be a misrepresentation, please use a data set which only includes recent data.
We all know the vaccines performed very well until about August of 2021 when their antibodies began to wane.
Please provide data and studies establishing the vaccine breakthrough rate is only .5%.
So as to not be a misrepresentation, please use a data set which only includes recent data.
We all know the vaccines performed very well until about August of 2021 when their antibodies began to wane.
The vaccines are starting to wear off, so we can expect a new wave of breakthrough infections in the unboostered.
Just how many times do I need to post the data from the CDC, KFF, Europe and other government entities showing large scale information on vaccinated breakthrough rates. Go back and read it. Some of it with links is just a few posts back on this thread.
Remember the definition of breakthrough infection.
A breakthrough infection occurs when a vaccinated person gets infected by Covid.
It is not only when a vaccinated person is found to be infected after being administered a PCR test. (which would be a small subset of all breakthrough infections)
Potentially millions of people had breakthrough infections who were never tested.
Your KF data set is woefully incomplete.
As far as I can tell that data set only reviews reports from a very limited number of states.
It reports the data of those who sought or received testing.
It therefore does not track breakthrough infections.
It partially tracks breakthrough infections of those tested.
Conclusion
Science and data requires useful data which might include blood samples of statistically relevant and complete groups.
You have not provided any useful data to establish a .5 breakthrough rate.
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Still tossing out nonsense, eh? The CDC and KFF data set is one of the largest in the world in terms the number of people tracked for vaccinated breakthrough cases even though it does not include all 50 states.
Let's walk through the reality...
You ignore the undetected infections (which the level is only estimated and not proven) among the unvaccinated when pushing your nonsense. And it is likely that the unvaccinated have a much greater percentage of undetected infections than the vaccinated. If you are doing ratios -- then you will need to adjust information when comparing the two groups. But let's more narrowly focus on estimated vaccinated breakthrough infections which are not reported as a case.
Seeing that the current estimated number of infections in western countries is 2 to 3 estimated infections to each detected case. It may be possible that the percentage of of estimated vaccinated but unproven breakthrough infections to be as high as 2% (0.5% proven and 1.5% (3 for 1) estimated) in an environment where the virus is highly prevalent. I will still note this estimated Covid breakthrough infection rate of 2% is still below the vaccinated breakthrough rate of over 3% for measles, mumps, and most other diseases in a population where the disease is highly prevalent.
Bottom Line: The Covid vaccines are performing much better in vaccinated breakthrough case rate in a highly disease prevalent environment than most other vaccines. The entire wrinkle in the situation right now is if Omicron will increase the vaccinated breakthrough case rate -- since many experts believe Omicron will be more vaccine evasive in regards to protecting against infection.
I'd say that and whether the five and a half monthers are more prone to breakthrough infections than they were previously.
Yes... you have a good point. As the data from Israel indicated, vaccines wane over time and boosters are necessary. The U.S. data indicates Moderna takes longer to wane than Pfizer. However we are arriving at the timeline point where people in the U.S. need a booster before their vaccinated anti-body immunity drops below the threshold where they can easily get infected. As the U.S. encounters with Omicron we will likely see dual dose vaccinated people who got their their last dose 6 months back without a booster having a good number of breakthrough cases. But based on what we are seeing in South Africa their cases will be mild and over 90% of people in hospitals with severe Omicron Covid will still be unvaccinated.
South Africa is of interest to many virologists, immunologists, epidemiologists, geneticists (mutation analysis), and such because of its low vaccination rates / growing infection rates. It's a unique chance to study the data involving reinfections of those that had prior Covid infections and breakthrough infections.
This is the info my friends that work in the industry are waiting to get their hands on for analysis to see how Omicron is better at evading Natural Immunity defenses and Vaccination defenses.
In my opinion, Omicron could become a hierarchy of Variants of Concern that have learned how to evade immune system responses and that it could spawn a new Variant of Concern down the road that could be more pathogenic (deadly).
If the latter above occurs, I think a Variant of Concern that's more pathogenic will be via the route of zoonosis but this time around they'll be able to pinpoint exactly where it started without the politics.
wrbtrader
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