Picking up nickels in front of a steamroller...
Need help on position sizing/risk - 86% win rate - .5% per trade
- Thread starter frostengine
- Start date
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MOST long funds trade/ inVest about 99% + have 1+/% cash;
but looks like you are using leverage with those ETFs/99% maybe a bit steep. Actually i dont mind some 50-60% DD\they tend to be the best %% gainers.
Exceptions include but not limited to inverse ETFs + EBIZ; or even when a top trender like IBUY starts underperforming by a bunch\kick it out , even if you are 99% sure it may finish well end of year///LOL
,Congrats you made it thru bear markets also\good gains[Sorry DD tend$ to do worse than 60%/62%, SPXL went down 70% max dd\could easy go down more . For sure spxl/tqqq will in a multiyear bear\ most likely]{My comments are limited to first Fed tighten\nor would i want all my etfs dd 60-7o %%]
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Easy on buy + hold a 3 x leveraged ETF;
meaning easy to get that 86 % hit rate + 60% drawdown with TQQQ/spxl not easy to hold thru that/LOL.
88% is close to JAN indicator for year finishing uptrend. Worked well with splv, tqqq, qld,qqq; SPY /spxl failed it in 2020 unless spy dividends are counted/LOL[Past 3 years + more]
NQ at all time highs with big earnings season coming near an end. I highly doubt, we will not see correction around the corner.
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IF you can believe his headline, he lets his profits run just a bit off nickels
I did plan + pay up x20 .....for some 1901-1907 panic nickels/LOL;
but they dont have Tom Jefferson on them , they have a ''v''.....
I would rather not risk drawdowns, but define a certain percentage of the deposit (for example, 3%), upon reaching which the trade is closed. And then I would run the strategy again with this restriction.
1) compute the max number of consecutive losses. E.g. 10.
2) simulate positions in your algorithm - don't open real but virtual positions. And start opening real positions only after N (e.g. 5) virtual positions in a row were losers.
3) you might want to increase the position size after each lost position. Perform grid search to find values which give you nice DD vs. profit.
2) simulate positions in your algorithm - don't open real but virtual positions. And start opening real positions only after N (e.g. 5) virtual positions in a row were losers.
3) you might want to increase the position size after each lost position. Perform grid search to find values which give you nice DD vs. profit.
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ALMOST NEVER ''increase position size after each lost[loss ] ''; exceptions include a battle tested plan sometimes. I tend to lighten up more if something in my account even performs worse + profits anyway.......................................
I would say that depends on the asset you are trading.
I always increase the position size. However I start with a very small one.
And: my EAs are tested on several years of historical data with the analysis of events like nfps or covid.
My worst trades come from manual "fun entries". :/
One of my newest EA following the strategy from above:
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AS noted \ ''exceptions include a battle tested plan.''
IF only drawdowns were limited to the max in your or any backtest/LOL
AS noted \ ''exceptions include a battle tested plan.''
IF only drawdowns were limited to the max in your or any backtest/LOL