Need help on position sizing/risk - 86% win rate - .5% per trade

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AS noted \ ''exceptions include a battle tested plan.''
IF only drawdowns were limited to the max in your or any backtest/LOL:caution::caution:

Well, you can limit them.
Here comes the trick i was looking for for some years. I discovered it by accident.

A) Book about trading psychology (bulletproof trader) say we should practice to visualise the worst/difficult situation in order to train your brain to not to flip out every time the market goes against you.

B) i started to use the MT5 "visualization" feature while running a backtest. There you can interact with the UI elements of you EA.
What does it mean? If you add buy/sell/close buttons you could replay the market with high speed on 1h candles for example and train manual trading.

C) now, i added to my ea (which scales position as described above) the ui elements which enable to open a new position with automatically predefined lot size. So if the EA has already opened one or more positions in the same direction, the next entry is predefined up to the timing (lot size is computed using the previous one etc).

D) Now, when i started to replay the EA backtest i discovered that if I limit the number of automatically opened positions to 5 and the Dd continues to increase (see fomc news in June given a short position in usdchf), i have one or two trials to trigger new positions. That means if the EA is out of sync with the market i can enter the game and fix it. I just need to wait 2-3 days to be sure not to trigger additional positions too early.

This way, the DD from the backtest with max EA positions=7 is reduced by 50% or more if I set max position to 5 and interact manually once in a month or so.


See? And there is nothing about AI, TA or any direction guessing from astrology. Pure mechanical engineering on the market noise.
 
I have a new automated strategy I am planning to go fully live with soon. I have been running it live with minimal capital since Feb. Stats are holding up well to historical, so now I am looking for some feedback on the best position sizing to utilize as I allocate a portion of my portfolio towards it.

Here are the stats:
86.44% winning trades
+.5% per trade expectancy
Returns 154% per year on average
Largest drawdown 62.6%.. reached 40% drawdown 11 times over past 15 years
Never had a losing year in the past 15...
Only 18 losing months over that time period.

I am not a big fan of stomaching a 62% drawdown on capital allocated to this strategy.

My initial reaction is to allocate 3x the capital changing the returns as follows:
- 51% annual returns (on allocated capital) on a 20% max drawdown and a high probability of seeing 13% drawdown in any given year

I can live with those returns, however, I am looking for other thoughts. How would you recommend allocating capital to this strategy?


It's shit. No offense intended.
 
Well, you can limit them.
Here comes the trick i was looking for for some years. I discovered it by accident.

A) Book about trading psychology (bulletproof trader) say we should practice to visualise the worst/difficult situation in order to train your brain to not to flip out every time the market goes against you.

B) i started to use the MT5 "visualization" feature while running a backtest. There you can interact with the UI elements of you EA.
What does it mean? If you add buy/sell/close buttons you could replay the market with high speed on 1h candles for example and train manual trading.

C) now, i added to my ea (which scales position as described above) the ui elements which enable to open a new position with automatically predefined lot size. So if the EA has already opened one or more positions in the same direction, the next entry is predefined up to the timing (lot size is computed using the previous one etc).

D) Now, when i started to replay the EA backtest i discovered that if I limit the number of automatically opened positions to 5 and the Dd continues to increase (see fomc news in June given a short position in usdchf), i have one or two trials to trigger new positions. That means if the EA is out of sync with the market i can enter the game and fix it. I just need to wait 2-3 days to be sure not to trigger additional positions too early.

This way, the DD from the backtest with max EA positions=7 is reduced by 50% or more if I set max position to 5 and interact manually once in a month or so.


See? And there is nothing about AI, TA or any direction guessing from astrology. Pure mechanical engineering on the market noise.
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Good points.
BUT like the Aussie Trader[D Guppy] noted ''never confuse a high probability with infallibiity''
He got his trader office flooded once. Great quote.
 
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