Natural Gas journal.
- Thread starter OTCkrak
- Start date
Been taking a few trades on QG but getting stopped out every time!
Nat Gas is acting like shit, don't feel safe going long or short.
Hopefully we can eventually tank into a high-volume weekly capitulation bottom...whenever that may happen.
Looking forward to when it does reverse and show some strength!
Nat Gas is acting like shit, don't feel safe going long or short.
Hopefully we can eventually tank into a high-volume weekly capitulation bottom...whenever that may happen.
Looking forward to when it does reverse and show some strength!
chart attached
I think the range 4.00 - 4.25 will provide strong support going into the summer..
i read an article by an analyst describing how the inventory conditions last year took the market down to 2.65 but for 2010, supplies will be tighter and he says 4.50 is the bottom.
personally i would like to see the so called "capitulation" happen as the current trend looks nothing like a finish. the implications of this trading down another 30% would bring the double dip recession into a reality, unless you see NG as the leading indicator :eek:
I think the range 4.00 - 4.25 will provide strong support going into the summer..
i read an article by an analyst describing how the inventory conditions last year took the market down to 2.65 but for 2010, supplies will be tighter and he says 4.50 is the bottom.
personally i would like to see the so called "capitulation" happen as the current trend looks nothing like a finish. the implications of this trading down another 30% would bring the double dip recession into a reality, unless you see NG as the leading indicator :eek:
Although NG volatility has been down recently, it still carries a vol of about $0.25/day. So a $6.5k margin does make sense. You need a lot of capital to carry any outright positions.
The other ways are to trade spreads (not like Henry Hunter), and intra-day to capture the alpha.
Options spread is another way to play. It adds dimensions on vol/skew, calendar spread and time decay..... But it it safer than directional play.
The other ways are to trade spreads (not like Henry Hunter), and intra-day to capture the alpha.
Options spread is another way to play. It adds dimensions on vol/skew, calendar spread and time decay..... But it it safer than directional play.
Nenner sees 1.70 NG longterm on severe oversupply and lack of demand due to inability for utilization as fuel at present.
I took a position at the Dec double bottom then scrapped for a small loss. I'm out. Not long or short just watching as you can make a lot of money in NG when the time is right.
Like short a year ago.
I took a position at the Dec double bottom then scrapped for a small loss. I'm out. Not long or short just watching as you can make a lot of money in NG when the time is right.
Like short a year ago.
This is not really supply/demand. There is plenty CL, but it is trading at $83. And gasoline and heat oil can't cover the refining margin.
We do not hear the calling for comgressional hearing for low NG price
NG producers won't care. Most of them already had > 70% output hedged at >$5.50 for next two years. And the well-head costs are at low $3.
You can still make $ by trading this market on the short side
