Natural Gas journal.
- Thread starter OTCkrak
- Start date
Traders do not care about over-sold, or over-bought. When traders smell blood, they will come. Same thing happened to sub-prime, Lehman, etc....
For NG, not a lot of people are complaining. Producers are happy to hedge at $5.75. Users like us like low NG utility bill. Banks get the hedging business. The only folks who are not happy are the UNG holders
No one wants to catch a falling knife.
Quote from RedSun:
Market never gives gifts to traders, only traps. The bears have nothing to fear about: no weather, no government intervention, no more dumb UNG buying, no nothing
Bears have one full month to crack it below $4. It may be much sooner, could be tomorrow
i think this will run inverse to ES/YM, when they turn down, this could run.. at least a test of 4.5?
open a new short here and post screenshot.. a 6% move in a major commodity market in 1 day is extreme.
yes this could go < 3 for all I care but I'm looking for shorts to cover and the squeeze.
Just read in Barclays "The Commodity Investor" [18 Mar 2010]:
"The flattening of the natural gas curve early this year has eased over the past month as cold weather support for the front end of the curve has faded and contangos have widened again. We are bearish on natural gas fundamentals this year, see little support from higher oil prices and would tend to continue taking positions in this market from the short side when opportunities arise."
No surprises there...
Deutsche Bank [Commodities Weekly, 19 Mar 2010] takes a similar view: "It is not a good sign for the gas price outlook that ample
supply and skimpy demand for gas means hurricanes or
Congressional opposition to drilling are needed to provide
support that fundamentals wonât. "
It's nice to be a contrarian but I don't think I am going to be one in NG. Looking to go short again today, ideally when we bounce a bit.
"The flattening of the natural gas curve early this year has eased over the past month as cold weather support for the front end of the curve has faded and contangos have widened again. We are bearish on natural gas fundamentals this year, see little support from higher oil prices and would tend to continue taking positions in this market from the short side when opportunities arise."
No surprises there...
Deutsche Bank [Commodities Weekly, 19 Mar 2010] takes a similar view: "It is not a good sign for the gas price outlook that ample
supply and skimpy demand for gas means hurricanes or
Congressional opposition to drilling are needed to provide
support that fundamentals wonât. "
It's nice to be a contrarian but I don't think I am going to be one in NG. Looking to go short again today, ideally when we bounce a bit.
I worked in emergency management in south Florida for 15 years.
Andrew (first storm of season hence "A"ndrew) was in August
Charlie (first powerful storm of season) was August
I never saw a June or July hurricane in 30 years of south Florida.
The "season" runs from June 1 - Nov 30. And I never saw one in November either. As late as early October in the busiest of years.
Historically I'm sure you could find one outside of the months I have seen them but you may be going back 100 years.
As to the "predictions" they may as well be fortune tellers. They say a year in advance what the next season will be, revise it twice before season even starts, then revise it twice more during season, and sitll miss horribly. Yet the legislature gives in to these whack jobs and sets insurance rates by their crack predictions.
My observation is that the frigid temps (record cold winter in Florida this year) has the water at record cold temps. The fuel for every hurricane is hot water. I don't care if el nino is 5,000 degrees. If the water in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean are record cold as they are today, there is not going to be a hurricane unless or until the local waters warm up. It's still 10 degrees below normal here and we're quite pissed. We're supposed to be drinking rum runners on the beach watching the college girls shake the booty contest but it's too cold at 70 degrees. We like it 85 in the day and 75 at night.
Al Gore can kiss my butt!
If intrade is offering weather futures you may want to take the short side on the hurricane predictions. I don't know what their numbers are this year.
Andrew (first storm of season hence "A"ndrew) was in August
Charlie (first powerful storm of season) was August
I never saw a June or July hurricane in 30 years of south Florida.
The "season" runs from June 1 - Nov 30. And I never saw one in November either. As late as early October in the busiest of years.
Historically I'm sure you could find one outside of the months I have seen them but you may be going back 100 years.
As to the "predictions" they may as well be fortune tellers. They say a year in advance what the next season will be, revise it twice before season even starts, then revise it twice more during season, and sitll miss horribly. Yet the legislature gives in to these whack jobs and sets insurance rates by their crack predictions.
My observation is that the frigid temps (record cold winter in Florida this year) has the water at record cold temps. The fuel for every hurricane is hot water. I don't care if el nino is 5,000 degrees. If the water in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean are record cold as they are today, there is not going to be a hurricane unless or until the local waters warm up. It's still 10 degrees below normal here and we're quite pissed. We're supposed to be drinking rum runners on the beach watching the college girls shake the booty contest but it's too cold at 70 degrees. We like it 85 in the day and 75 at night.
Al Gore can kiss my butt!
If intrade is offering weather futures you may want to take the short side on the hurricane predictions. I don't know what their numbers are this year.