National Polls - Inside the margin...

[Tsing Tao]

jem likes this.


University of Florida students get threatening emails warning them to vote for Trump — or else

On Tuesday, the Miami Herald reported that University of Florida students are receiving threatening emails with the subject line “Vote for Trump or else!”

“Alachua County officials were made aware of the emails on Tuesday morning. In one of the emails, the sender told a voter to ‘vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you,’ according to a copy obtained by the Miami Herald,” reported Ana Ceballos and Carli Teproff. “‘Change your party affiliation to Republican to let us know you received our message and will comply,’ the email said. ‘We will know which candidate you voted for. I would take it seriously if I were you.'”

Thanks, Spike! As predicted, this wasn't proud boys at all. Iran.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1319069327404969985

 

[UsualName]

Lefty or righty, "black" or "white", straight or gay, etc., all serve to keep the 99%'s attention on each other and off the 1%. A trick that started, at least on this soil, back in the colonies when "black" and "white" Labor (both of whom were indentured servants) was finding a common voice and starting to frighten Capital.

The biggest scam in the world is that if you’re a working person and you get a break or a benefit from the government you’re some kind of a loser but if you’re rich and get a sweetheart no bid contract or enormous tax subsidy you’re a genius.

 

[UsualName]

I think it's been obvious all along Trump is losing and if anything it's gotten worse as he acts mentally ill in the campaign. People are trying to dream up a contest that isn't going to happen; even the Republicans know they've lost a ton of female votes with Trump's horrible management of the virus ( among other reasons ). Just on the female vote alone, it's a done deal. If the minority vote gets enthused about this election, and the evidence suggests they are, even more reason Democrats will win.

Guess we'll see but I doubt the final result justifies these ideas that it's a close call. Let's see if Trump gained ( unlikely ) or lost votes in these two categories. Unlike this forum, half the population is female.

I would be careful with this done deal stuff. The polls were actually a lot better in 2016 than 2012, believe it or not. But, let’s not forget a polling error can go either way too:

I also think the aggregators aren’t helping anything by calculating unverifiable probabilities. I see the averages as useful but making up odds of winning is completely subjective and really only able to be tested on a theoretical basis.

 

[jem]

govt is too big.

I said this before but the companies my friends worked for all wanted to go public or be purchased by a Company with good stock.

Now 75% of the people I know work for places whose goal is more govt contracts.
(although some are also listed on stock exchanges. )

Its amazing change in mindset and business posture since 911.

The biggest scam in the world is that if you’re a working person and you get a break or a benefit from the government you’re some kind of a loser but if you’re rich and get a sweetheart no bid contract or enormous tax subsidy you’re a genius.

 

[Ricter]

The biggest scam in the world is that if you’re a working person and you get a break or a benefit from the government you’re some kind of a loser but if you’re rich and get a sweetheart no bid contract or enormous tax subsidy you’re a genius.

Bam!

 

[jem]

This could translate into a shift in some votes...
The question is... how will this impact the swing states.

The polls are going to be very interesting next week.


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ingButtons&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons

HUGE NUMBERS: Trump Approval Surges to 52% – Black Voter Approval Jumps to 45% in Race Against Joe Biden

Rasmussen: Trump Approval Among Likely Black Voters Jumps to 46% After Debate

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...al-among-likely-black-voters-jumps-46-debate/

President Donald Trump’s approval among likely black voters jumped to 46 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports data posted Friday morning, less than 24 hours after the final presidential debate.

According to the tracking survey, Trump’s approval jumped nine points from Thursday to Friday, going from 37 percent on Thursday to 46 percent on the morning following the presidential debate. Overall, Trump has experienced a 24 percent bump in approval among likely black voters since Monday:

 

[Nine_Ender]

This could translate into a shift in some votes...
The question is... how will this impact the swing states.

The polls are going to be very interesting next week.


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ingButtons&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons

HUGE NUMBERS: Trump Approval Surges to 52% – Black Voter Approval Jumps to 45% in Race Against Joe Biden

Rasmussen: Trump Approval Among Likely Black Voters Jumps to 46% After Debate

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...al-among-likely-black-voters-jumps-46-debate/

President Donald Trump’s approval among likely black voters jumped to 46 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports data posted Friday morning, less than 24 hours after the final presidential debate.

According to the tracking survey, Trump’s approval jumped nine points from Thursday to Friday, going from 37 percent on Thursday to 46 percent on the morning following the presidential debate. Overall, Trump has experienced a 24 percent bump in approval among likely black voters since Monday:

Funny how these names Rasmussen and Breitbart tend to come up a lot in stories suggesting the Republicans will win elections. On election night, Trump will be shown the exit. Trump will not have some breakthrough in black voters, and even more importantly tons of women will want Trump gone.

Will it be a landslide ? That's the best question. It may take 8 years for the Republicans to recover from their Trump experience.

 

[jem]

You have been a moron since at least 2016. And, you are not even American commenting in so many threads about politics here.

"Trump lost this election months ago. You and a few others are in for a surprise on election night. Then you'll spend 4 years complaining about Clinton no matter what occurs. When Obama got elected, most of his early projects were blocked by Republicans and very little could get done. Maybe some of you should spend less time complaining about weak policy based on bipartisan feelings and look at why watered down projects like Obamacare came into being."

Funny how these names Rasmussen and Breitbart tend to come up a lot in stories suggesting the Republicans will win elections. On election night, Trump will be shown the exit. Trump will not have some breakthrough in black voters, and even more importantly tons of women will want Trump gone.

Will it be a landslide ? That's the best question. It may take 8 years for the Republicans to recover from their Trump experience.

[/QUOTE]

 

[wrbtrader]

Funny how these names Rasmussen and Breitbart tend to come up a lot in stories suggesting the Republicans will win elections. On election night, Trump will be shown the exit. Trump will not have some breakthrough in black voters, and even more importantly tons of women will want Trump gone.

Will it be a landslide ? That's the best question. It may take 8 years for the Republicans to recover from their Trump experience.

If the Republicans loose a lot of seats plus the Presidential Election...

They'll most likely do a better vetting job before allowing another Trojan Horse (reform party) to enter their ranks.

wrbtrader

 

[jem]

Regarding National Polls...

Reuters showed their template for the poll for October 21...
They had biden plus 9
but they used

44 lean Democrats
38 lean Republican
10 percent independents
8 don't knows

1. That poll seems to have sampled far to few independents.

This is interesting... on page 15...

2. 44% of the people in their poll voted in the democrat primary
32% of the people voted in the Republican primary...

It seems to me the poll was slanted by 12 voters to Biden... yet biden only lead the poll by 9.

I hope we can see their template in the next few poll it will be interesting to see if this changes.


There all sorts of other slants you can see on page 15...
This is quite complicated...

They slanted the independents to democrats... 47 to 21 in the primary / caucus category
when form what I read... many republicans say they are independents...


https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/hxop5lpnlj/econTabReport.pdf

I don't know but this looks like a very slanted poll to me.
Look at page 15 and tell me what you think..

This is a deep look than I have had experience with..
If you know polls please explain why such slants are justified.