National Polls - Inside the margin...

J

jem

Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden's support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9% to a new low-water mark of 48.1%. Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8%. Biden's lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.

Biden's narrower support reflects Trump's gain, more third-party support and more voters who are undecided or decline to say whom they support.

https://www.investors.com/news/trum...ns-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/

Last week... Zogby found the same thing. Biden with only a tiny lead.
The polls with legit turnout models have this race very tight right now.

If Joe has excess support in CA and New York... that means this thing looks just like 2016. Way too close to call at the moment.
 
Polls are meaningless in this one except for polls that include voters entirely in PA, WI and MI from a diverse swatch of the states.

Polls that include random calls to states like CA, NY or Alabama are useless. It is like polling people in Alaska and asking whether they think its cold
 
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https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/
 
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The Zogby poll revealed its sample and it sampled 4 more dems than Republicans (if I recall) . Putting it in to Jem Balance Algo - Honest Poll category.
Although we prefer Democrat plus 2 or 3.

I just checked and I did not see that IBD revealed their sample. So... The Balance Algo has no rating for the moment on their poll.



Tsing Tao said:
Are these polls before or after the Jem Balance Algo ™
More...
 
Your logic is spot on.

But... 4 years ago Nate Silver showed you could forecast a chance of victory for Trump if he was within 2 to 3 percent of Hillary in the national vote. Because she had excess voters in CA and NY.


I presume the same situation still applies. Biden has a "wasted" 1 to 3 percent of the vote due to excess voters in blue states.

So the way the jem algo sees it.... Biden needs to be up by 5 to 7 percent to be outside the margin in an honest poll to be in the lead outside the margin for error.
When you look at polls with an honest turnout model... (1 to 5 more democrats and a proper sampling of independents) ... the race is inside the margin for error... or too close to call.

Hence at the moment it is as you said... its coming down to few swing states...


Even more specifically the outcome probably comes down to "cross over" voters and swing voters in the swing states.

El OchoCinco said:
Polls are meaningless in this one except for polls that include voters entirely in PA, WI and MI from a diverse swatch of the states.

Polls that include random calls to states like CA, NY or Alabama are useless. It is like polling people in Alaska and asking whether they think its cold
More...
 
jem likes this.


University of Florida students get threatening emails warning them to vote for Trump — or else

Screen-Shot-2017-07-27-at-10.19.26-AM.png


On Tuesday, the Miami Herald reported that University of Florida students are receiving threatening emails with the subject line “Vote for Trump or else!”

“Alachua County officials were made aware of the emails on Tuesday morning. In one of the emails, the sender told a voter to ‘vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you,’ according to a copy obtained by the Miami Herald,” reported Ana Ceballos and Carli Teproff. “‘Change your party affiliation to Republican to let us know you received our message and will comply,’ the email said. ‘We will know which candidate you voted for. I would take it seriously if I were you.'”
 
Spike Trader said:
jem likes this.


University of Florida students get threatening emails warning them to vote for Trump — or else

Screen-Shot-2017-07-27-at-10.19.26-AM.png


On Tuesday, the Miami Herald reported that University of Florida students are receiving threatening emails with the subject line “Vote for Trump or else!”

“Alachua County officials were made aware of the emails on Tuesday morning. In one of the emails, the sender told a voter to ‘vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you,’ according to a copy obtained by the Miami Herald,” reported Ana Ceballos and Carli Teproff. “‘Change your party affiliation to Republican to let us know you received our message and will comply,’ the email said. ‘We will know which candidate you voted for. I would take it seriously if I were you.'”
More...

I'm gonna pull a Here4money and call this a false flag op by the Democratic Party.
 
Spike Trader said:
Many countries are interfering in the forthcoming elections , hoping for a Trump victory.




CBS News and Vice News have each reported that the source code embedded in seven emails shows the message originated from IP addresses linked to servers in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Estonia.

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/article246592578.html#storylink=cpy
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Thanks for finally supplying a link. You seem to rarely, if ever, do that.

This allowed me to read the article and note that these emails were sent with a return address of "info@officialproudboys.com". And we're supposed to believe these folks sent a threatening email they knew would be traced right back to them?

What a joke.
 
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