Nasdaq Running out of Steam?

[MidwesternTrader]

You might need a dictionary to look up what equal weight means:

You actually just posted a chart that proves my point, IMO.

The weighted NDX closed yesterday 6% higher than the 1-26 high. The NDXE closed yesterday -.7% lower than its 1-26 high. The few carry the majority in this market right now whereas through 1-26-18 the weighted NDX was more balanced in its push to ATHs.

The market is still bullish, but I would be more bullish if the % change of the NDXE was closer to that of the NDX. Since they are out of sync, I am willing to play the short side a little earlier than in the past.

 

[treeman]

Smh

 

[dozu888]

very hard.

it's the basic human dignity isn't it... who'd be stupid enough to buy at $200, after sold at $100 a couple of years ago.... even though the damn thing is sure going to $300 or even $400.

 

[qxr1011]

Opinions please??

why do you need opinions?

what does your method say?

if you do not have one - develop one and fuck the opinions of others

 

[John9999]

my method says... we go higher

 

[qxr1011]

my method says... we go higher

then that's the only thing should matter to you
just do not forget to check with your method in which time-periods we go higher...

 

[MidwesternTrader]

it's the basic human dignity isn't it... who'd be stupid enough to buy at $200, after sold at $100 a couple of years ago.... even though the damn thing is sure going to $300 or even $400.

Sure, NDX could go up 50% in the next two years, entirely possible. But why pass up short term corrections when the market is clearly trading both directions for the first time in years. These "stalls" after ATHs can present good short term opportunities. They are also easy to trade, set stops at when you think the stall is over or use options / options on futures to use predefined risk. Shorting the stalls does not work every time, but they work enough to be profitable so long as you have an exit strategy.

Then get back on the long train when you see the BTFD momentum taking over again.

 

[manonfire]

Price and time have almost perfectly aligned with 2000 top and August failure. Every cycle, super included, I am looking at is turning over August 15-Sept 15.

 

[beerntrading]

Price and time have almost perfectly aligned with 2000 top and August failure. Every cycle, super included, I am looking at is turning over August 15-Sept 15.

I caught that similarity too. This looks very much like a make-or-break moment on a longer term chart. I'm out of a lot of my bullish positions now, but I've had a hedge open on the Qs since 8/9 and remarked at the time I opened (with respects to SPX) that it would be one heck of an island reversal if it failed. I'm not ready to call this bull dead yet...but it's starting to look old and tired.

 

[dozu888]

I caught that similarity too. This looks very much like a make-or-break moment on a longer term chart. I'm out of a lot of my bullish positions now, but I've had a hedge open on the Qs since 8/9 and remarked at the time I opened (with respects to SPX) that it would be one heck of an island reversal if it failed. I'm not ready to call this bull dead yet...but it's starting to look old and tired.

bull markets don't end this way - when the dumb money is not in yet.