Nasdaq Running out of Steam?

[MidwesternTrader]

Well this thread is about like the market action today, two sides with strong opinions and some reasonable observations to backing up each side.

I don't care who ends up being right, so as long as there is volatility I'm happy for the opportunities that will present themselves.

 

[manonfire]

bull markets don't end this way - when the dumb money is not in yet.

Respect you opinion but what empirical evidence do you have that dumb money is not in yet?

 

[dozu888]

Respect you opinion but what empirical evidence do you have that dumb money is not in yet?

I keep going back to this -

https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment

what is the dumb money doing right now?

they are scared.. they pile into gold and btc... and a few braver ones are shorting the sp500.

I just created another thread for one of the easiest trades you will see in many years, like shooting fish in a barrel.

by the way - checking account balances are at all time high.

 

[John9999]

Since I started this thread here is my opinion and trading.. I was long from 7374 on 08/02.... today's close will be below both MA10 and MA20 on the daily chart. So, my trading strategy says to close the position and wait for a new entry...

 

[manonfire]

I keep going back to this -

https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment

what is the dumb money doing right now?

they are scared.. they pile into gold and btc... and a few braver ones are shorting the sp500.

I just created another thread for one of the easiest trades you will see in many years, like shooting fish in a barrel.

by the way - checking account balances are at all time high.

Do you have the data on the notional value those positions represent? That is quite literally a den of highly leveraged, short term gamblers, the dumb, dumb money, and does not represent the investing public.

 

[John9999]

Do you have the data on the notional value those positions represent? That is quite literally a den of highly leveraged, short term gamblers, the dumb, dumb money, and does not represent the investing public.

OK... this is of interest.... isn't the institutional money (mutual funds, hedge funds, etc..) the major volume of any major index? I always thought the retail money was of no significance?

 

[manonfire]

Your post does not support a lack of breadth. You’re only pointing out that a weighted index is... wait for it...

Weighted.

It's the deterioration in breadth...

https://thefelderreport.com/2018/08/15/the-nasdaq-triggers-another-breadth-warning/

 

[John9999]

It's the deterioration in breadth...

https://thefelderreport.com/2018/08/15/the-nasdaq-triggers-another-breadth-warning/

and by the way.. there is no info for Nasdaq, which is what my post is about. I do not believe any longer that the different indexes are so tied to each other as I previously thought.

 

[dozu888]

OK... this is of interest.... isn't the institutional money (mutual funds, hedge funds, etc..) the major volume of any major index? I always thought the retail money was of no significance?

yes -

the reason to look at retail - is that they are the perfect contrarian indicator.

it's not so much that retail will move the market - it's where the dumb money has been pushed into which corner, thru the brain-washing by the smart money who controls the media.

in this game the smart money picks from the dumb money's pocket.

I like indicators not too many look at... fxcm is one... I also like youtube like/dislike ratio.... you can also dig deeper to look at google trends, twitter feeds that type of thing.

but to me the picture is already clear enough.

 

[dozu888]

Do you have the data on the notional value those positions represent? That is quite literally a den of highly leveraged, short term gamblers, the dumb, dumb money, and does not represent the investing public.

yeah that's the type of people we want as a contrarian indicator!

it represents how the main street is thinking right now... to me this is clear enough.