Not that I am in it, but we are GAINING traction with our WOTM Index Spread Strategy. This is an update:
This trader has gotten a 'reprieve' with his "top" calls that kept going awry. Stop loss methods work, however and so do the indicators (all the way back to Feb/most recently in Jun-Jul period)!
Like I said...the more frothy the market, the more work needed to wring it out. Hence, where we are at today.
HEY - the important thing is we do call every "tops" (and bottoms) right
- to within days!. Well at least I think this is of most value.
I bank on the 80% probability (for the life of the market) that said "confirming" action leads to each new rally. I bank on this to be key not only for making money with "high-yielding" covered calls (the trend is your friend) - but with this
WOTM Naked Index Spread strategy.
I have combined the two strategies in my fund at C2 (per ET policy, I won't give a direct link - but this can be easily obtained PM, etc.)
Quote from Paysense:"Total account value: $742,270 + $74,227 = $816,497 (from $1M)"
In all fairness, the FULL 10% from recent QQQ spread trade was NOT realized...
...as some was left on the table (I erred upon exit). Also note how C2 "accounts" for spreads (and covered calls) with the "EXTREME" ratings on relativley safe trades - oh well.
Also note that ET posts regarding strategy allowed for this trader to refine (spreads not naked calls) process that has shown up in C2 account (making money in ANY market).
7250/8750 was ACTUALLY realized so with $61,502 gained,
Corrected Total Account Value: $803,772.
As I said, this "correction" is likely going to take a bit of time to resolve and more trades can be implemented. I was looking for a bounce in the DJX (poor bid/ask spreads) to enter next trade - and did get it (was able to use limit orders to execute trades in-between quoted bid/ask spread).
As you can see we got a very "wild" bounce" - so much so I was bounced right out - yet got a good price on increased contracts at higher (WOTM) strikes:
Also note we are also into a covered call trade and into another QQQ WOTM spread trade. Options expire next Friday. We will keep you updated.
Also remember those late-day program trades that swung index prices wildly Tues-Thurs, well my attempt to enter a spread trade (C2 requires these be done separately) was only half opened and then closed, hence the $1,000 profit on DJYHH.
So let's do the calculations on how these trade affect our hypothetical ET fund-
On 06-Aug-2007 at 15:05 C2 account value ~$80,000, so DJX spread trade [150 x DJWHF/DJYHG: .60-.35=.25 credit spread] has total possible profit of .25x15000=$3,750
On 08-Aug at ~15:30 this position closed at 1.55-1=.55 credit spread or .55x15000=($8,250).
Attempt to reopen DJX spread trade (roll up to 137/138 strikes), failed, but the opening and closing of one 'leg'=$1,000
Total drawdown 8,250-3,750-1,000=$3,500
$3,750 total possible profit on $80,000=3,750/80,000=0.046875
or 4.69%
Instead incurred loss of $3,500=3,500/80,000=0.04375
or 4.375%
Since 1-0.04375=0.95625
Total (ET) Account Value: 0.95625x803,772=$768,607
As you may have noticed I did get good pricing on the bounce for a new DJX WOTM Spread Trade on the massive bounce:
With the subsequent plunge these (like the QQQ trade may too become) are pretty much fully realized. Also our entry into the next QQQ trade is far enough
out-ot-the-money to be looking good with 5 days until expiration.
We will revisit this once/if it becomes close to being fully realized.
But for now, let's add in the $6,000 total possible profit from DJX spread trade [200xDJYHG/DJYHH or .80-.50=.30 credit spread=20000x.30=$6,000]:
C2 account value on 09-Aug-2007 09:45 was about $80,000. So 6k/80k=0.075 or a total possible profit of 7.5%
Current ET 'account' balance is $768,607 and a 7.5% increase:
New Total Account Value: $826,252.
Open QQQ trade has a 2.2625% possible profit that may bring this account
back up to $847,941 from $1M. So we are gaining traction. If you remember we GOT CLOBBERED with (necessary) stops with our first 2 'phase in' attempts at calling the 'top'.
These first few trades after succsessfully calling the "top" have quickly and relatively (excessive DJIA bounce did cost us) easy begin restoring most of our account.
On 24-Jul-2007 we made our first successful QQQ spread trade and went to caution at my Covered Call training website. On 27-Jul-2007 went to Stop Losses mode at site. By the end of that week our Covered Call position exposure (see my "Managing Funds for A Living" thread) was reduced from being fully vest - with some margin - to <20% vested/shortly thereafter went fully into cash and have been ever since (except recent PRKR addition with Dow 'confirm').
Perhaps
some gains on 1M will be had from this "top" after all!
I am looking at RUT for the next WOTM Index Spread=$$$$ trade.
paySense