NADEX Trial

[expiated]

If US Tech 100 reaches a value of $30.00 I will exit the position early.

So far it appears that making money via the indices is MUCH easier than making money via the currency pairs, with a target of $15 per trade, per contract (upon early exit) an extremely attainable goal.

UPDATE: I decided to be satisfied with a return of $25.00 from US Tech 100, seeing no real reason to press my luck (in a manner of speaking).

 

[expiated]

Since $15 per contract seems to be a reasonable target for early exits, I'm going to go ahead and cash in on USD/CHF right now (a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush).

 

[expiated]

I wasn't willing to risk watching US 500's close turn out to be the high for the day, so I went ahead and locked in the little bit of profit that was available right now (approximately $9.50 when I sent the order).

So in conclusion, the Dynamic Probability system does indeed appear to be adaptable to trading at least one other asset class. Every trade made with a US Index was profitable, so if this turns out to be repeatable on a daily basis and the Nadex platform continues to work okay with my new laptop, I might fund my live account in a couple of weeks to earn a little extra money for last-minute Christmas shopping trading the US indices.

 

[expiated]

AUDJPY might have just about peaked at 82.20 with the rate being only 20 pips above the 82.00 strike price, which is not enough room to make me comfortable given that there are another seven hours left before expiry. And since I have no desire to sit around monitoring the trade for seven hours, I'm going to go ahead and exit the position now and collect the $10.00 currently available.

Also, USD/CAD is flattening out while the market is still bullish overall, so in case it decides it wants to start climbing again sometime between now and the next four hours I'm going to go ahead and lock in my (currently $23.75 worth of) profit there as well.

UPDATE: EUR/USD is now headed the "wrong way" so I'm going to have to exit that position too, for just a fist full of dollars, if that much.

 

[Overnight]

"Exited S&P 500 for about a $30 gain, but I think that was a mistake in that I purchased 2 contracts, so I should have waited until my profit was at least $60 instead!..."

There was something I learned many moons ago about trading psychology, and you might wish to think of this in the future...

If you find that you made a mistake, you should close everything you have at that very moment and take rest of the day off, and reflect upon that mistake.

There was an error in your thinking, or a slip of the mouse, or SOMETHING that distracted you from your plan. This is usually a preemptive sign that something is amiss in your mind that day. That can affect your trading and position management throughout the day.

While you may have the trades compartmentalized in your mind, the error on the one trade may bleed/cascade into your other trades as well. Have to be careful there.

 

[expiated]

I did not trust GBPUSD enough to hold out all the way to expiry given that it was only 10 pips away from the strike price, was evidencing a trajectory with a slightly negative slope, and some freaky stuff often takes place when the 24-hour market cycle turns over, as it is about to do in 10 minutes. I therefore cashed in on the few bucks it was offering to call it a day.

Despite getting off to a terrible start, I think I still finished the day in the black. If I'm correctly recalling the account's starting balance before the sessions began, I believe I actually managed about a $60 return on my efforts, which I find a little bit surprising considering how poorly I did compared to my expectations.

 

[Overnight]

...I believe I actually managed about a $60 return on my efforts, which I find a little bit surprising considering how poorly I did compared to my expectations.

Does that include your commissions and exchange fees and all that?

 

[expiated]

I glanced at my charts after watching a movie to see how GBPUSD was doing and saw that the pair was up to 1.2758, so I opened my Nadex platform to see how much profit was available, which turned out to be a little over $10.00. I took a couple of minutes to square something away, intending to return to the binary option platform and debate whether I should cash in before retiring for the night rather than wait another twelve hours until expiry in the hope of reaping the full value of the contract, risking whatever might happen in the meantime.

But in the five minutes I was away, the rate dropped ten pips, all the way back down below 1.2748. So before going to bed I think I’ll place a standing order to sell the contract whenever its value once again reaches $10.00, if that happens at all.

I just placed my order...

UPDATE: GBPUSD just turned bearish, so I purchased two additional (put) contracts with a strike price of 1.2760 that have the same expiry as the first (call) contract (and I cancelled my standing order).

 

[expiated]

GBPUSD is acting stupid.

Given that my charts indicate the pair is bearish overall, I went ahead and exited the long position when it offered me $16.00. But to avoid experiencing an ultimate loss, I will need the rate to fall back below 1.2760 by expiry ten hours from now.

 

[expiated]

GBPUSD is acting stupid.

I will have to assess if it will be worth it to switch back and forth every time my forecast model registers a reversal, regardless of how often it happens. In this case, it appears that it would have been.