Numerical Price Prediction spawned an offshoot I called Dynamic Probability trading, which morphed into a “triple-zone” strategy that, after being fine tuned for accuracy, led me right back to a superior version of Numerical Price Prediction, which has prompted me to conclude I should try buying AUDJPY and AUDUSD once again.
I expected AUDJPY and AUDUSD to rise on Friday, based on my confirmation intraday trend line, but they did not follow through, and an analysis of why not led me to add one moving average beyond my confirmation trendline which I am calling an “ultimate direction moving average.”
Based on the current status of this final indicator, the Aussie pairs still cannot be trusted to turn north for a prolonged period of time. Yet I purchased call contracts with an approximate 1:1 win-to-loss ratio without any confirmation from my trigger lines anyway based on the fact that my confirmation trendline was neutral and the exchange rates were located just above second-level statistical support.
Since current conditions are not evidencing above-average levels of liquidity/volatility, the statistical odds of price regressing toward the mean should theoretically outweigh the probability of price dropping down to third or fourth level statistical support (with the fourth level being the most extreme).
However, since the instruments are still technically bearish, rather than wait around until expiry in the hope of banking the full $40-$50 value of each contract, I’m going to place orders now to sell the contracts at $12.00 each, so that I clear $10.00 per contract after the $1.00 fee for opening and $1.00 fee for closing each position.
This way I won’t have to worry about the final outcome, will not need to monitor the progress of the trades, and can start the week off on a positive note, taking my cumulative earnings back above the $442.75 worth of gains I managed before last week’s continued experimentation put me in a hole I had to try digging myself out of on Friday.
UPDATE: As anticipated, the exchange rates bounced off of second-level statistical support, so hopefully I can begin adding to my balance from here based on the relationship between price and a set of measures that include my: (1) ultimate direction moving average, (2) confirmation moving average, (3) intraday moving average, (4) short-term moving average, (5) fluctuating moving average, (6) low-volatility price range [second-level statistical support and resistance], (7) intermediate-volatility price range, (8) extreme-volatility price range [fourth-level statistical support and resistance], and (9) global price range.
This puts me only $17.00 above where I was a week ago, but as I said, I'm perfectly happy to simply start things off on a positive note.
I expected AUDJPY and AUDUSD to rise on Friday, based on my confirmation intraday trend line, but they did not follow through, and an analysis of why not led me to add one moving average beyond my confirmation trendline which I am calling an “ultimate direction moving average.”
Based on the current status of this final indicator, the Aussie pairs still cannot be trusted to turn north for a prolonged period of time. Yet I purchased call contracts with an approximate 1:1 win-to-loss ratio without any confirmation from my trigger lines anyway based on the fact that my confirmation trendline was neutral and the exchange rates were located just above second-level statistical support.
Since current conditions are not evidencing above-average levels of liquidity/volatility, the statistical odds of price regressing toward the mean should theoretically outweigh the probability of price dropping down to third or fourth level statistical support (with the fourth level being the most extreme).
However, since the instruments are still technically bearish, rather than wait around until expiry in the hope of banking the full $40-$50 value of each contract, I’m going to place orders now to sell the contracts at $12.00 each, so that I clear $10.00 per contract after the $1.00 fee for opening and $1.00 fee for closing each position.
This way I won’t have to worry about the final outcome, will not need to monitor the progress of the trades, and can start the week off on a positive note, taking my cumulative earnings back above the $442.75 worth of gains I managed before last week’s continued experimentation put me in a hole I had to try digging myself out of on Friday.
UPDATE: As anticipated, the exchange rates bounced off of second-level statistical support, so hopefully I can begin adding to my balance from here based on the relationship between price and a set of measures that include my: (1) ultimate direction moving average, (2) confirmation moving average, (3) intraday moving average, (4) short-term moving average, (5) fluctuating moving average, (6) low-volatility price range [second-level statistical support and resistance], (7) intermediate-volatility price range, (8) extreme-volatility price range [fourth-level statistical support and resistance], and (9) global price range.
This puts me only $17.00 above where I was a week ago, but as I said, I'm perfectly happy to simply start things off on a positive note.
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