My Wyckoff journal

[dbphoenix]

DB,
What kind of market returns have you experienced of late? Like YTD, past several years.
I'm considering paying closer attention to you but this is my sniff test...

Given that I could make up any figure I like, it's not pertinent. The plan is not only simple to test but easy as well. Shouldn't take more than a couple of weeks with replay for you to determine whether or not pursuing it is worth your time. If it's not, then let's shake hands and wish each other well.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

And now on to the session itself. I used to be commenting on price rather than doing what I should be doing which is taking note of the trader behaviour at certain levels.

So what follows isn't commentary, it's basically bullet points of what I'm thinking at the time its happening.

You can tell that I've borrowed heavily from Wyckoff's vocabulary, it was the only way that I could find my voice when doing this... Seems a bit weird but we're all different I guess.

The trolls will no doubt have a go at me for using terminology from larger timeframes, but they are a better crutch to fall on than "buyers pushing price" etc Besides to me Price is fractal, and the market can be oversold in a 1m chart just as easily as daily, it all boils down to the behaviour of the traders in the market.


View attachment 150801

A) Supply comes in to the MKT. Confirms a false BO of the Hinge.
B) Oversold Position. Volume dries up. Transfer of quality. A good quality Supply overcoming poor quality Demand.
C1) Overbought position after the rise from 26. Volume dries up, Spread narrows, progress is halted: Bearish
C) A good quality Supply meeting poor quality Demand
D) Supply absorbing orders from Buyers and closing below the Opening Low Level
E) Volume drops off - Sellers exhausted. No follow through. The MKT is now ready for a reaction. Demand emerges @ 0901 with Price heading back inside the intraday RNG.
F1) No Volume pick up on the reaction. Supply isn't hitting the market in sufficient size. This opens up a move back to test the prior swing high.
F2) the HL @ F2) signals again that Supply is insufficient to move the market lower, accordingly we rise again.
F) Important. Volume and Activity at this point all pick up to the downside (within the 1m bar), little Demand present in the move up through the last swing high. Supply picking up.
G) Volume now increases on the move through the Globex Low signalling Sellers are willing to follow price lower.



Just for kicks, here is the rundown of the Ranges I was tracking:View attachment 150802

I'm usually keeping an eye of the Buying and Selling waves as well, though with this days action it is quite easy to glean the balance between Buyers and Sellers

Do you not see that the reversal between 730 and 740 on both charts would have had the trader short and a trailing stop place outside the noise would have maintained the trader short all the way to then right side of the chart?

 

[nursebee]

Instead of making up figures, you could just share the real ones.
For me, returns in the market separate the wheat from the chaff. I want good wheat.

Being able to make up figures has nothing to do with it being pertinent.

 

[dbphoenix]

Instead of making up figures, you could just share the real ones.
For me, returns in the market separate the wheat from the chaff. I want good wheat.

And how would you know they were true?

The only way to determine whether or not the wheat you have is good is to test it. If you don't know how to test it, see Developing a Plan.

 

[nursebee]

No, it is my sniff test, not yours. You can test all you want.
My sniff test is profits, money, returns. Answering the question of "does this work" is shown by increasing pile of money.

 

[damnpenguins]

Do you not see that the reversal between 730 and 740 on both charts would have had the trader short and a trailing stop place outside the noise would have maintained the trader short all the way to then right side of the chart?

Absolutely, but that isn't the point of this exercise.

Important levels are tradeable regardless of the time that the test occurs.

The purpose of this post however, was to relay my observations of the first hour or so after the start of the NY session.

My trade plan, my entries, specifics of trade management etc don't come into it yet.

Hang around if you want though, there'll be plenty of mistakes made in the coming weeks I'm sure! Plenty for others to gloat over

 

[dbphoenix]

No, it is my sniff test, not yours. You can test all you want.
My sniff test is profits, money, returns. Answering the question of "does this work" is shown by increasing pile of money.

So use something else. Makes no difference to me. And why are you posting all this in somebody's journal?

 

[nursebee]

db, perhaps you are getting defensive without cause?
as to why, I already posted that in my first post "I'm considering paying closer attention to you but this is my sniff test..."

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Absolutely, but that isn't the point of this exercise.

Important levels are tradeable regardless of the time that the test occurs.

The purpose of this post however, was to relay my observations of the first hour or so after the start of the NY session.

My trade plan, my entries, specifics of trade management etc don't come into it yet.

Hang around if you want though, there'll be plenty of mistakes made in the coming weeks I'm sure! Plenty for others to gloat over

No one is trying to gloat. Rather, I believe you are attempting to learn to catch every turn when in reality, you could probably do better by learning to take less than 5 trades a day--many times just one. It's very clear on the charts that the short I described could have been maintained for a long time with trailing stops. I just ask that you consider in your analysis.

 

[damnpenguins]

No one is trying to gloat.

Understood. Thanks for that.

I'm not trading those intraday 'turning points', merely observing. Whilst my trade plan isn't finalised yet, I can't see myself taking more than a few trades a day based on the stats I've looked at thus far.

I can see where you are coming from though.