My Wyckoff journal

nursebee said:
db, perhaps you are getting defensive without cause?
as to why, I already posted that in my first post "I'm considering paying closer attention to you but this is my sniff test..."
More...

Not defensive at all. But if you want me to provide you with my returns before you're willing to examine the approach, then it is highly unlikely that the approach would be of any interest to you. Why waste your time?

And since you continue to post in somebody else's journal, this will be my last reply.
 
Another one - Jan 12th 2015

I won't post too many more of these novels on my [PreMkt] thinking, but once again I thought I should show at least a few examples of where my head is at...

[PreMkt]

On the daily chart Supply had overcome Demand yesterday with a bearish close on rising Volume falling back below the daily Range Median Line ([ML]). One days action doesn't necessarily determine a change in trend etc, however it does alert one to a potential change in the market.

Moving to the Hourly chart Buyers had been either unable or unwilling to follow price above 4230. The second attempt at 30 also featured a rejected move back into the hourly Trend Channel that had tracked Buyers progress back up from the bounce off the low of the daily range on the 6th of Jan.

Down to the 15 minute chart the pre Open range had narrowed to 4205 - 4230 roughly. With Price moving higher to the 15-20 level which was both the [50%] of yesterdays Range and the [50%] level of this pre-Open Range.


Backtesting 12Jan2015[PreMkt]_markedUp.png
 
[PostMkt]

  1. Supply overwhelms Demand
  2. Sellers work through lots of order flow. Demonstrate a willingness to work through the orders (resistance)
  3. Lots of Volume with very little reward and downward progress.
    • Supply meeting with BIG Demand 0835.35-40
    • Moving forward Supply was up to the task.
  4. Solid move through the GlobexLo.
  5. Supply meets lots of Demand, absorbing standing orders at the YLo. not Climactic Volume, little evidence of transfer to longs
  6. Reaction stalls. Narrowing spread, falling Volume.
  7. Supply still willing to follow Price lower, Volume increasing on on the downwaves
  8. Not an "abnormal" amount of volume but Demand is present. Ease of movement has decreased for the bears
    1. SL broken
    2. Slight change of behaviour. Volume decreasing on downwaves, Increasing on upwaves. Balance potentially shifting.
  9. Buyers showing a willingness to move higher through RES. Step back into the market at 50% RET of reaction. Move through LSH on rising V, widening spread
    1. No follow through. Price stalls at 50% of last swing. Hardly surprising given the drop in the market thus far today. No V shape recovery in the offing
  10. Low of the Range tested, Demand is greater.
Backtesting 12Jan2015[PostMkt][1M].png


Once again the market structure as I saw it. No real retracement to guide in terms of SL until the reaction at 0845 or so, but I did fan it out a bit.


Backtesting 12Jan2015[PostMkt]_market structure.png
 
Jan 12th review

an excerpt from the review I did...


[Supply] was relentless in its determination to move lower. Each time [Buyers] stepped in with [Demand], [Sellers] were able to overcome the opposition. So much so that [$] managed to drop over 60 points without a retracement moving past 35% or so.

I'm far more comfortable with [RNG]s as the extremes are clearly identifiable. Reversals on [RNG] days are far more cut and dried to me.

With strong trending days like today important levels act more like the banana netting you see downhill skiers slam into when they are out of control. It doesn't stop the momentum so much as slow their progress.

On a trending day I need to cultivate the ability to rely far more on the [DL] -or- [SL] rather than looking for signs of weakness. With the balance so clearly in the favour of the Bears on a day like today, Price movement takes far more effort to slow, halt and then reverse.

edit: a little bit more from the review added

I've been doing well within Range days at viewing price action from the point of view of the dominant party. Ie if [Demand] is in charge then it is up to the [Buyers] to maintain that pressure or fail in the attempt. Whereas on a trending day I seem to disregard the dominant side and instead look for signs of strength from the subordinate. I need to switch that around...
 
Last edited:
Jan 13th 2015

[PreMkt]
Backtesting13Jan2015_[PreMkt].png
[PostMkt]

  1. Demand asserts itself at the Open. PreMkt BP confirmed
  2. Buyers move through a lot of Supply. less progress on same level of V
  3. Advance falters on rising Supply, look for a reaction
  4. LH made on reduced Volume, Demand resting after the initial rush higher?
    1. Demand returns to the MKT as Buyers get their second wind
  5. Strong move through the Y High on rising Volume
  6. Volume looks climactic.
  7. Despite the Climactic behaviour, advance continues with Sellers not interested in pressing lower. Each decline occurs on low Volume signaling a lack of interest in lower prices.
  8. A RNG forms between 36-45,
    1. Distributive action as Buyers offload inventory
    2. ditto
    3. ditto
    4. Rising support but no corresponding pick up in Volume
  9. Spread narrows after upthrust. Volume tapers off
  10. Sellers meet resistance at the RNG swing lows but no participation from Buyers. Low Volume reactions. Stalls at the 50% RET. Volume increases on downwave.
  11. After the distributive action at the recent highs of Jan 8-9, Supply floods the MKT and liquidation occurs on a grand scale. In other words, the ass falls out of the MKT.

Backtesting13Jan2015_[PostMkt][1M].png
Waves etc

hopefully not troll-bait...

Backtesting13Jan2015_[PostMkt]waves.png

EDIT: Finally worked out how to post thumbnails rather than billboards..... Sorry :(:rolleyes:
 

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Remember that lateral lines are in the market. Diagonal lines are most likely in your head, particularly if you're looking at anything smaller than the daily. Try to avoid superimposing them.
 
dbphoenix said:
Remember that lateral lines are in the market. Diagonal lines are most likely in your head, particularly if you're looking at anything smaller than the daily. Try to avoid superimposing them.
More...

Sorry - which post is this referring to? Are you referring to the Trend Channel I had on the hourly in pre market?

Cheers!
 
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