My Simple Profitable Strat: "ET Contrarian"

last week was great (~ +$140 i think). this week the contrarian play is under water so far. still time to turn around.

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SPY Next Week
Bullish 15 20.83%
Flat 10 13.89%
Bearish 22 30.56%
I am sick and tired of you kids playing the prediction game 25 34.72%
Total: 72 votes 100%


switching to 100 shrs long on Mon
 
being a contrarian is not enough to make money, the timing must be right.
like in real estate. you make money when you buy.
 
i will keep my 100shrs long based on the negativity in the polls:

If Healthcare Bill Passes, This Week The Market Will Move...?
-5% 21 36.84%
-2% 11 19.30%
flat 9 15.79%
+2% 6 10.53%
+5% 10 17.54%
Total: 57 votes 100%

SPY Next Week
Bullish 3 17.65%
Flat 1 5.88%
Bearish 8 47.06%
No Matter What Happens, This Market Is Rigged 5 29.41%
Total: 17 votes 100%

i need to create a performance table with poll results next to the trades. will work on it next week.
 
going to neutral on Mon. a few more bears but too few votes total to give one side a clear preference. may sell a strangle.
SPY Next Week
Bullish 10 29.41%
Flat 5 14.71%
Bearish 13 38.24%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself 6 17.65%
Total: 34 votes 100%
 
To make the test more precise (less guesswork by you), you
can just poll like this :

For example

What is the most likely action should I take now?
A long 100 SPY
B short 100 SPY
C short 1 SPY straddle
D long 1 SPY straddle

After poll, you take the one with the fewest votes. It looks
like you do not like to long options, so to be true to your
effort, if the most unpopular choice is D, you have to take it.
 
Bullish 15 39.47%
Flat 5 13.16%
Bearish 13 34.21%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself 5 13.16%
Total: 38 votes 100%


Staying flat.
 
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