My Simple Profitable Strat: "ET Contrarian"

Quote from Kassz007:

Neat experiment, shortie. However, why would you throw in "Contrarians suck" as a poll option? Secondly, what do you consider to be the "majority"? +50% bullish or bearish? Most votes of bullish or bearish? I suspect that if your definition of the majority of voters is +50% of the polls or something to that effect, you will likely be "range bound" the majority of the time (which might not be a bad thing, but I don't think that is the intention of your experiment).

Technically, if most voters are "neutral" and you play the range, aren't you trading WITH ET as opposed to against ET?
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there were approximately equal number of bulls and bears and each were more prevalent than the neuts. so, my interpretation is that the majority expects a large move (up or down) and i have to bet with the neut minority. i could have remained flat but selling strangles seems like a good idea given the expiration week and it is consistent with betting on a flat week.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

Neat experiment, shortie. However, why would you throw in "Contrarians suck" as a poll option? ...
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i am giving people the opportunity to express their various opinions. i am not basing my trades based on the "contrarians suck" opinion.
 
so far the bulls have been right, but the week is not over. hanging in there with my short strangles:

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the market ignored the Fed :( . I did not really expect this sort of a reaction. the strangles actually made a bit of money, i will be assigned -200 shrs IWM come monday morning. i will decide what to do with them based on the weekend poll:

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plans for position sizing so far:
1. max exposure 200 shrs IWM
2. typical exposure 100 shrs IWM
3. i will use max exposure when the sentiment reaches some sort of extreme (will decide what that level is when i see it) or when i sell strangle as last week ().
 
Quote from shortie:

plans for position sizing so far:
1. max exposure 200 shrs IWM
2. typical exposure 100 shrs IWM
3. i will use max exposure when the sentiment reaches some sort of extreme (will decide what that level is when i see it) or when i sell strangle as last week ().
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Isn;'t the whole point of strategy to reset every week? Close out the assigned part and enter a new trade. Otherwise, you're just discretionary trading.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

Isn;'t the whole point of strategy to reset every week? Close out the assigned part and enter a new trade. Otherwise, you're just discretionary trading.
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yes, i will reset each week. for example, if the poll is bearish (meaning i have to switch to Long) i will buy 300 shrs around open on Monday (right now i am -200 shrs going into Monday) to have 100 shr exposure for the coming week.

if we were to get a super bullish poll today, i would leave -200shrs intact. if it were a bullish poll, i would reduce the exposure to -100shr.
 
similar poll from last week. again i will take the minority side which is betting flat. i will close -200 shrs and sell one strangle. not many people voted probably because of the olympics giving this poll a larger margin of error (hence only one strangle this time).


Next Week Will Be....
Bullish 10 40.00%
Flat 4 16.00%
Bearish 10 40.00%
Every time I vote in one of this polls I lose money when trading 1 4.00%
Total: 25 votes 100%
 
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