He doesn't trade lol.
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My Path To Success
- Thread starter Lucias
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He doesn't trade lol.
Quote from Lucias:
I've did both. I also have, in some cases, subscribers who take my signals with real money trades and the fills are recorded. I trade the ES so there isn't a problem with fills. I enter on markets (usually) so fills aren't a problem either (and exit on limit). The fills are available for comparison purposes.
If you keep everything exactly the same there is very little difference. For limit fills, you can use an algorithm called "must exceed to fill" which works well for most contracts -- if you think that would be a problem. I believe Ninjatrader (and other platforms) use a realistic volume fill algorithm that looks at the volume on the queue and then calculates a fill time/probability. You can also use MIT orders which would work well too, if available.
The only reason you lose on paper trading going to real money if you're simulation is realistic is if you change something. It is true that many traders lose because they vary the stop sizes and risk from paper to real money.
I have a system that nets 100% per year with a 40 point stop. It nets only 50% per year with a stop in the 25 point range. It goes way down if the stop drops below 20 points. Most likely if you lost when you went to real money trading then it was due to changes in your trading style -either you failed to take a loss as quickly or set your stop closer or some other change.
The only other difference is that the frictions are typically higher when trading a small account if using higher leverage. All high risk professions use simulation. The highest risk types of scenarios are only available to be tested via simulation.
Commissions and slippage can be enough to make some edges non- profitable. Win rate is also a very important variable. Approaches with a lower win rate will tend to have a higher drawdown and that is psychologically harder to deal with. Even when executing a mechanical approach I have seen a big difference between paper accounts and real money. Execution is alot different when with real money! If you don't believe that, you don't understand why trading is so hard. The market exists to screw you and it takes a disciplined and objective individual to consistently perform.
Man, even when I was in college I was trading a real account. No matter how small it was it was always much different to move in and out of positions and see the nuances when executing something in real time.
You will miss out on the some of the most important learning experiences and intricacies of your approach if you are not fully involved in the process. That is hard to do with a paper account unless you can mindfuck yourself enough to override you pain/pleasure response.
>Commissions and slippage can be enough to make some edges non- profitable.
Trivial to calculate.
>tend to have a higher drawdown and that is psychologically harder to deal with.
Very important that your paper trading/strategy be a method that you can "accept" taking with real money. You have to paper trade in a realistic way to your own risk sentiment for it to be realistic, of course -- or else it is "play money trading" or a game. While seemingly similar, paper trading, games/contests, and simulation are all different in nature.
I've a feeling most people here have indeed traded play money or game traded. That isn't a simulation. A simulation is something one conducts over a long period of time with high realism that yield strong results.
Do we send soldiers into battle without simulation? Pilots? Doctors? Surgeons? Do we have to routinely explode our nuclear weapons to "make sure they're real" or do we use simulations? Realistic simulations are very valuable.
You see but most people haven't did a realistic longer term simulation of their trading because they lack the discipline and patience. 2 weeks on Ninjatrader resetting your account == worthless. 6 month public/audited/serious sim trading == quite valuable.
Trivial to calculate.
>tend to have a higher drawdown and that is psychologically harder to deal with.
Very important that your paper trading/strategy be a method that you can "accept" taking with real money. You have to paper trade in a realistic way to your own risk sentiment for it to be realistic, of course -- or else it is "play money trading" or a game. While seemingly similar, paper trading, games/contests, and simulation are all different in nature.
I've a feeling most people here have indeed traded play money or game traded. That isn't a simulation. A simulation is something one conducts over a long period of time with high realism that yield strong results.
Do we send soldiers into battle without simulation? Pilots? Doctors? Surgeons? Do we have to routinely explode our nuclear weapons to "make sure they're real" or do we use simulations? Realistic simulations are very valuable.
You see but most people haven't did a realistic longer term simulation of their trading because they lack the discipline and patience. 2 weeks on Ninjatrader resetting your account == worthless. 6 month public/audited/serious sim trading == quite valuable.
Quote from Lucias:
>Commissions and slippage can be enough to make some edges non- profitable.
Trivial to calculate.
>tend to have a higher drawdown and that is psychologically harder to deal with.
Very important that your paper trading/strategy be a method that you can "accept" taking with real money. You have to paper trade in a realistic way to your own risk sentiment for it to be realistic, of course -- or else it is "play money trading" or a game. While seemingly similar, paper trading, games/contests, and simulation are all different in nature.
I've a feeling most people here have indeed traded play money or game traded. That isn't a simulation. A simulation is something one conducts over a long period of time with high realism that yield strong results.
Do we send soldiers into battle without simulation? Pilots? Doctors? Surgeons? Do we have to routinely explode our nuclear weapons to "make sure they're real" or do we use simulations? Realistic simulations are very valuable.
You see but most people haven't did a realistic longer term simulation of their trading because they lack the discipline and patience. 2 weeks on Ninjatrader resetting your account == worthless. 6 month public/audited/serious sim trading == quite valuable.
I agree, but when you put some skin in the game it will help to build your emotional makeup to be a trader. There is something about losing money that will have you get your stuff together alot faster than just on sim. You have no ideas how often I have ignored rules or put on pot-shot trades knowing that I have no edge there. It's only when mr. market has punished me and I have felt pain that my behavior changed.
Quote from Lucias:
... why not just post some market calls? There are guys on here with lots of money and some that own or manage prop firms.
Just a few notes, I do have a subscriber who is taking my trades in real-time real money and if they continue to do that then in time it will reflect the real possibility of what is really possible. I use the C2 because it is the most accurate possible.
I very rarely call the market without risking something on it. I will risk my performance or something.
There are several reasons I won't make calls. First, I really value winning and if I make a call then I have to be proven right or wrong and until that time then I will be upset. Second, if I make a call then I have to risk something on it which means money or performance. Third, I like all my calls to be tracked as accurately as possible which is not possible in a forum format. So in essence, if I made a call then I'd have to go and place the trade on C2 anyway. I have no need or desire to prove anything to anyone. I'm way beyond that. Winning all the time for me is fairly normal.
You have just stated that you can't handle the pressure of making public calls because it upsets you. And yet you think you will perform exactly the same when real money is on the line. That is ridiculous.
Again, why not open a small oanda account and make real trades? Then you could at least show real world results.
Once again it looks like you are so afraid of your delusions being exposed as such that you are incapable of doing anything but write essays on your awesome ability.
Your opinion of your own ability is not based on facts or experiences. Facts and experiences are components of a place that I like to call Realityville. It is the opposite of Fantasyland. It is quite apparent you prefer to reside in Fantasyland. I assume it is because in Fantasyland you are the best in the world at trading and can call peaks and troughs with 100% accuracy. Your predictions are always correct. Realityville is less attractive because in that domain you are a papertrader with a brief and dissapointing real money experience that came dangerously close to proving you a loser before you shut it down.
Of course the big downside is that the Fantasybucks you are earning right now can't buy you a thing, including respect or backers.
So, are you ready to step into Realityville? It is a gamble of course. It is the only way you will earn real money, but it also could expose you as a sham. Here are some options I can think of since you always have an excuse ready on why you can't trade real money.
1. Oanda account. Any small amount will do.
2. Remote prop. 5k will get you 50k intraday and if you can call peaks with 100% accuracy you can scalp your way to a fortune very quickly.
3. Post live calls here. If they are as accurate as you claim you will pick up some backers no problem.
All 3 of these are compatible with a job. It will be even simpler if you live with your parents as I assume you do.
Quote from baggerlord:
You have just stated that you can't handle the pressure of making public calls because it upsets you. And yet you think you will perform exactly the same when real money is on the line. That is ridiculous.
Again, why not open a small oanda account and make real trades? Then you could at least show real world results.
Once again it looks like you are so afraid of your delusions being exposed as such that you are incapable of doing anything but write essays on your awesome ability.
Your opinion of your own ability is not based on facts or experiences. Facts and experiences are components of a place that I like to call Realityville. It is the opposite of Fantasyland. It is quite apparent you prefer to reside in Fantasyland. I assume it is because in Fantasyland you are the best in the world at trading and can call peaks and troughs with 100% accuracy. Your predictions are always correct. Realityville is less attractive because in that domain you are a papertrader with a brief and dissapointing real money experience that came dangerously close to proving you a loser before you shut it down.
Of course the big downside is that the Fantasybucks you are earning right now can't buy you a thing, including respect or backers.
So, are you ready to step into Realityville? It is a gamble of course. It is the only way you will earn real money, but it also could expose you as a sham. Here are some options I can think of since you always have an excuse ready on why you can't trade real money.
1. Oanda account. Any small amount will do.
2. Remote prop. 5k will get you 50k intraday and if you can call peaks with 100% accuracy you can scalp your way to a fortune very quickly.
3. Post live calls here. If they are as accurate as you claim you will pick up some backers no problem.
All 3 of these are compatible with a job. It will be even simpler if you live with your parents as I assume you do.
What a spot-on post! Thanks baggerlord.
GordonTheGekko
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L, where are you at now from your original ~$2k investment?
Brilliance and Self Doubt
I'm always looking for new edges and new trading systems and to improve what I already do. Sure, I have a lot of self doubt. I mean there are things I've not did which one would think I should do. For example, volume I don't need to know the volume to know how price will move but some people say volume is important. But then I say no.. it can't be that importance because I've achieved an unparalleled success without volume or without this or that.
Some people claim well you need to use special chart settings or trade instruments that are "rare". There is this fascination with "rarity". But then.. no I can use a 15 minute chart or just a standard chart of any sort. And I achieved unparalleled success without that.
At its basis, if my reason for trading is sound then I already have the tools that I will use. Again I differentiate the way I approach trading from others because I approach it based on my historical success. If I weren't successful then I would have no basis for pursuing this activity and so if my basis is sound then I must already possess what I need to be successful.
Yet, I know I need to get better to get to that next level while keeping my strengths and not losing sight of what has made me successful historically. The success I've contemplated over, studied, memorized -- to make sure I don't lose the magic. And, yet I still develop, work, toil.
Then there is brilliance.. One of my projects was to create a stop that would not get hit. This was my best effort in creating some level that most accurately that would not be hit and it indeed is the most accurate level I was able to come up with. It tends to be too far away to be terribly useful as a stop. And, the best way I used this has been to target this on what I call "stop hit days" which I've predicted to a high degree and that's the brilliance. So, I'm taking something that is almost a non possibility and then turning it into a high possibility.
Not counting on brilliance...
Yes, there is brilliance but I can't depend on brilliance. I need to, also, be able to hit singles when I lack brilliance. I don't want to depend on being brilliant for my success. I don't think I have too, either.
So, it is a delicate game that I'm playing because in trying to take my "game" to the next level I risk somehow losing sight of my strengths. And while I toil to learn more about the market and develop new systems, I recognize that it wasn't required for my previous successes.
Yet, there is that tricky component of it all which has been that I've always worked hard. The tricky component is that I've always used my systems. That's the tricky part.. Neither can I ignore my strengths but neither can I ignore the work that led to the brilliance.
It is a fine line. I must already possess the tools to do what I need to do and yet I must also continue to reach... for something
I'm always looking for new edges and new trading systems and to improve what I already do. Sure, I have a lot of self doubt. I mean there are things I've not did which one would think I should do. For example, volume I don't need to know the volume to know how price will move but some people say volume is important. But then I say no.. it can't be that importance because I've achieved an unparalleled success without volume or without this or that.
Some people claim well you need to use special chart settings or trade instruments that are "rare". There is this fascination with "rarity". But then.. no I can use a 15 minute chart or just a standard chart of any sort. And I achieved unparalleled success without that.
At its basis, if my reason for trading is sound then I already have the tools that I will use. Again I differentiate the way I approach trading from others because I approach it based on my historical success. If I weren't successful then I would have no basis for pursuing this activity and so if my basis is sound then I must already possess what I need to be successful.
Yet, I know I need to get better to get to that next level while keeping my strengths and not losing sight of what has made me successful historically. The success I've contemplated over, studied, memorized -- to make sure I don't lose the magic. And, yet I still develop, work, toil.
Then there is brilliance.. One of my projects was to create a stop that would not get hit. This was my best effort in creating some level that most accurately that would not be hit and it indeed is the most accurate level I was able to come up with. It tends to be too far away to be terribly useful as a stop. And, the best way I used this has been to target this on what I call "stop hit days" which I've predicted to a high degree and that's the brilliance. So, I'm taking something that is almost a non possibility and then turning it into a high possibility.
Not counting on brilliance...
Yes, there is brilliance but I can't depend on brilliance. I need to, also, be able to hit singles when I lack brilliance. I don't want to depend on being brilliant for my success. I don't think I have too, either.
So, it is a delicate game that I'm playing because in trying to take my "game" to the next level I risk somehow losing sight of my strengths. And while I toil to learn more about the market and develop new systems, I recognize that it wasn't required for my previous successes.
Yet, there is that tricky component of it all which has been that I've always worked hard. The tricky component is that I've always used my systems. That's the tricky part.. Neither can I ignore my strengths but neither can I ignore the work that led to the brilliance.
It is a fine line. I must already possess the tools to do what I need to do and yet I must also continue to reach... for something
Quote from Lucias:
It is a fine line. I must already possess the tools to do what I need to do and yet I must also continue to reach... for something
Maybe you can reach for actually making real money? I know it's a long shot, but that seems to be the only challenge worthy of your brilliance.
This journal is almost reason enough to shut down the internet forever.
@Lucias
Reading this thread has been interesting, funny, sad and painful. I can see you are very creative and devote a lot of your time on improving your skills and strategies and I admire consistent hard work. I won't lecture you on psychology but will give you a bit of advice. You seem a little overconfident in your ability to create trading strategies you can make a living on: overconfidence is dangerous.
Have you ever worked at firm, talked with traders or sat at a desk with people trading real money? If not, take a day off and pay a visit to a trading firm so you can see what it's all about. When you see (and hear) market makers trying to figure out what's wrong with a closing price or guys calculating margins and adjusting positions before the close you'll get a whole new perspective on trading. Why not working with a 'mentor' or seeking technical advices from professionals? Maybe some of your strategies are perfectly sound and could be implemented by a larger organization.
I've been in this business for a while now and frankly, I don't believe a single individual with very limited financial resources can make it regardless of skills or will. A profitable trading system is a very ambitious venture to say the least.
I'm not trying to discourage you but you should ask yourself: what is my understanding of the problem I'm trying to solve? Why is money so important to me?
Good luck fellow trader.
Reading this thread has been interesting, funny, sad and painful. I can see you are very creative and devote a lot of your time on improving your skills and strategies and I admire consistent hard work. I won't lecture you on psychology but will give you a bit of advice. You seem a little overconfident in your ability to create trading strategies you can make a living on: overconfidence is dangerous.
Have you ever worked at firm, talked with traders or sat at a desk with people trading real money? If not, take a day off and pay a visit to a trading firm so you can see what it's all about. When you see (and hear) market makers trying to figure out what's wrong with a closing price or guys calculating margins and adjusting positions before the close you'll get a whole new perspective on trading. Why not working with a 'mentor' or seeking technical advices from professionals? Maybe some of your strategies are perfectly sound and could be implemented by a larger organization.
I've been in this business for a while now and frankly, I don't believe a single individual with very limited financial resources can make it regardless of skills or will. A profitable trading system is a very ambitious venture to say the least.
I'm not trying to discourage you but you should ask yourself: what is my understanding of the problem I'm trying to solve? Why is money so important to me?
Good luck fellow trader.
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