My Path To Success

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Here is what jack hershey can do. Are you sure you are the best?




I trade applications of an agorithm I created:PVT, SCT and SSR. PVT trades stocks 100 cycles per year @ 10% per cycle. there is a 100,000 share cap per stream. SCT trades, intraday, 20 to 40 traversal rades all in all the always on the right side of the market. the net profit yield is 3x ATR daily on the 5 min ES index. SSR does sector rotation in stocks @ 4 % a week for 4 1/2 week holds.
 
Trading Systems as A Product

I'm currently building a trading system that I will submit to a broker which will be auto-traded. And, I've came to understand that my trading is basically, at the end of the day, a product. Similarly, at the end of the day, I'm a race horse. A lot of people here talk about my trading with real money. What drives me isn't the money but the race itself. Yes, yes the money is important and will come but I want to "win" the race.

At any rate, there is no 'right or wrong' provided one is up front and knows what they are buying --as best as possible. I mean that if one wants to trade conservatively or aggressively or timidly or passively.. Those are just all different products.

Yet, sometimes it has ramifications. For example, I've built a risk management system onto one of my trading systems that tends to reduce the frequency of the largest losses. However, to do this I have to run a larger stop on the system. The stop is very rarely hit. This "smart" version doesn't perform as well as running the system with the large stop but performs better then a system with a smaller stop and the large stop is infrequently hit. In essence, I've built a little smarter insurance control then just taking a stop hit.

However, if I were to offer this system the the subscriber has to be prepared to take the larger stop hit. I can offer the system that has the moderate stop size which isn't that much smaller but will be hit a lot more frequently but I can offer it with a smaller stop or I could offer the larger stop version without the cut off and show a stronger performance.

Of course, when I look at it and knowing it in detail then I think the risk management system makes sense. But, the subscribers will never understand that and will probably base their decision off the risk per trade/day the system can take.
And then again, perhaps if I want to scale up with many contracts I'd look at it that way too.

Indeed, often to build a product that people want then I have too pursue trade-offs. The trader desiring less total risk will take larger losses more often but will never take a loss more then a certain extent. The trader willing to take more total risk won't take moderate sized losses as often but occasionally will take an even larger loss.

Yet, some features are "hidden" and won't be understood by the consumer -- even though they have a cost. These are the features that can be more difficult to justify. The process of building for another is worthwhile and opens the mind to a range of possibilities.
 
Can you describe your strategy in a few words???

For Example: ""Buy the /ES when at the 15min chart the 5MA pointing up, the VIX 15min 5MA pointing down, the TRIN is under 3 and 15min 5MA pointing down and the RSI-Wilder in oversold(under 20). And reversly.""

It would be nice to hear it, because I could not get through your Journal at collective2, it is so what of different. It looks like you have no strategy. But don´t talk this down and write 2 sheet something other about trading.

Thanks

Today is easy going, I have made a 7% account value rise already. Finished the day lucky :p
 
@Alexspeed

Thanks for the interest. My methods are proprietary, complex, and multifaceted. It doesn't mean it is a secret unknown to all but unknown to many, yes likely. Given that you've been pretty nice, I'll share a few things.

In one sense, I'm a local in that I trade the same market every single day. In the other sense, I'm a speculator in that I'm always taking a directional stance. I only try to break even as far as spreads.

First, very few professionals trade using moving averages and other lagging indicators. On the one hand, they are lagging and on the other they are redundant to price itself. I do not use any type of what one would think of as real-time charting, i.e full screen charts, for my intraday day trading. I work and so it is not an option but not having charts can be a benefit too. I will use charts for general landmarks and support/resistance but even then I'm using 15 minutes delayed charts. Much like my mentor, Gary Smith, I read the numbers. Whatever is painted is after I'm done.

... This is not to say charts aren't useful. I use them to great effect for my planned trades. But, I don't have access to them intraday and little need for them either.

Much of what I'm trying to do is read the sentiment of the players. I want to know if the buyers are confident or not. I'm trying to take a broad view of the entire market and see the various forces that act upon it. A big part of index trading is trying to gauge if the market is trending or ranging. If the market is trending then I have to cut my losses fast if I'm wrong but if the market is ranging then I can take a lot of heat "safely". Likewise, if I'm right and the market is trending then it doesn't work well for me to try to jump around and "market make" whereas in a volatile and choppy market then I can "market make". It is one of my games of many.

I can enter a trade on any whim when I'm confident that I can manage the risk. The ES has been fairly risky lately though which has made me cut back and be more selective. I've given up some profits being too cautious but the risks are higher now.

I try to categorize all of my trades and review every "sequence". I don't always look at the outcome of a single trade but what I consider sequence as a whole. Example categories:

Bread & Butter Trades -> Market read, using principles, concepts, and indicators that I have long time experience with. There are many sub types.. including experimental and developing ideas.

Speculative trades -> Enter any trade on a lark. I recently placed a vertical spread trade on crude because I seen a lot of factors that would prop it up. It didn't really profit as much as the futures but futures were too volatile and risky for my skill in that market. These can be if/then trades.

System trades -> Trades that are signal/generated by systems that are useful.
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So, you can see it is much more then just a simple system. I'm looking at you know the forces/influences acting on my market. The best sense for what I do can be gained by reading my report which can be found at my blog and/or Gary Smith's, "How I Trade For A Living". I've read his book 5x. Try to read what professionals do.. how they read the market. You will start to learn. There is a book I have on spread trading here that has interviews with the spread traders.. you will see similarities, i.e to ways of thinking. I mean you need to read about what professional traders are doing and thinking.

One thing I rely on is varying my bet size within limits based on my confidence. I tend to be very accurate in knowing when I'm wrong, and I tend to be very right when I'm more confident. My rightness will vary between 52% to 90% depending on how well I'm understanding the market. I only take the trades that make sense to me. What looks random to you.. makes sense for me!! The futures market is very efficient, perhaps near perfectly, if played "rigidly". But if played around the "corners" then it is possible to profit quite a bit..

Sometimes I disregard price as being unimportant.. sometimes it is everything. If the market is trending then I can sell a support or a buy a resistance. Sometimes I will say TA isn't relevant but then the market will tell me that it is... So I just try to listen. I will review every sequence and write down every sequence and the reasons. I'm combining tons of data and have to review my work after I finish to really understand everything that went into it.

Quote from Alexspeed:

Can you describe your strategy in a few words???

For Example: ""Buy the /ES when at the 15min chart the 5MA pointing up, the VIX 15min 5MA pointing down, the TRIN is under 3 and 15min 5MA pointing down and the RSI-Wilder in oversold(under 20). And reversly.""

It would be nice to hear it, because I could not get through your Journal at collective2, it is so what of different. It looks like you have no strategy. But don´t talk this down and write 2 sheet something other about trading.

Thanks

Today is easy going, I have made a 7% account value rise already. Finished the day lucky :p
More...
 
@Alexspeed

What really drives me is knowing what will happen next... to know the future. This is a state of mind that I've termed "online". For me to get "online" then I have to put in the "service" to connect to the source. The source is the connection. The connection is everything. There is nothing better then knowing what will happen next. Being online is like being in a state of flow.. I know what will happen.

But it is not easy... it takes a lot of work before I "get it". I'm constantly evaluating my work, my sequences, reviewing what I did and then I'm taking what I observe and running studies. Then I go and take that work and try to build systems or develop it.

The system development is the hardest part. It is one of those things that I struggle with because I've won so much without any system. But, I'm always trying to improve and it is, for me, the way that makes the most sense. Would I need my systems? Probably not... I've won so much without them. I value consistency over brilliance though. I don't want to make a fortune on a trade.. just win consistently..

Try to keep a wide field view. Not get involved in the games.. watch all the parts from a distant point. That's my goal. That's where I like to operate. Seeing everything. Knowing everything.

Right now though.. I'm not online. I'm working on testing out some of my earlier ideas and trying to code them up. This is kinda the work that might take me 6 months to pay off but can pay off big time..

No real insight into the market right now.

I try not to focus on support/resistance too much but stay with the trend. But I don't believe in the trend as something one sees on a chart but it is more a force.. I want to stay on the "right side".

So, you see I've many methodologies but there are certain threads that tie everything together and each methodology is clear to me and has been documented. In general, I try to stick to my strengths and develop them. I'm very aware of style drift which is why I try to "encode" and "burn" into my mind the specific methodologies I've used in the past -- even as I explore and experiment with new ideas. But that's a good point, I should go back and document this better.

The other part is that I track everything. I seen that crude was a huge loser for me, and so I quit trading it. I won't trade it until I can prove that I can trade it consistently except for using vertical spreads on the options or lower risk/small bets.....
 
Okay this looks too difficult for me. I have traded option speads fo 2 years and after all it was too complicated, to do that all the time. If you have enough money, it is nice to sell options to the suckers ... .

Just do what suits you.

For me it is a very simple strategy. I only need 2-3 monitors, about 10 charts and level 2.

As you wrote you are not trading charts only the numbers, I remember Jesse Livermore. He had only numbers and was sometimes great sometimes bad in it.
What do you say about lagging indicators? As I know all indicators are lagging the market. You cannot have a future indicator. So take it easy and use not too much.

Don´t search the holy grail only search for completing your mind.

I you want to know everything, first that is impossible and second you need a seat at the exchange. I think the second is too expensive for you.

Hf and gl today
 
Well, if by "normal" then you mean losing or break even then I've noticed a few things. I want to say I know there are some great traders out there

But, one thing I notice is that I accept responsibility for my calls/trades. I notice that the less successful investors/traders feel as if they are subject to external forces. I call what I do internalization. A good analogy is that I can do math. I can kinda work it out by using rules and see some truth. But, I had a great math teacher who had internalized it, he had facility with it, and he understood it. So, that's the difference. I can see the market from internal and external perspective.

I'm very clear on what I'm trying to do which is call the direction. This is important. I imagine the less successful traders aren't really clear on how they will make a profit. It tends to be more vague and not as clearly formulated.

In general, I've about 100 ideas --far too many ideas for me to test out. Many of these ideas came from other sources but I've collected them and in many cases put my own spin on them. Most beginner are looking at a few methods. I'm typically using "expert indicators" that have demonstrated usefulness for me. I try to cut anything out that doesn't work.

I'm okay with being shown/proven wrong. I see it as part of the process. Some don't like to ever be wrong.

I'm always learning. I evaluate my beliefs/ideas and see how they impact my performance. If being aggressive makes me win more then I try to become more aggressive. But, if being aggressive causes me to lose then I'm not aggressive. I'll use psychological tools too boost my performance, as well.

I'm always honest -- esp to myself. I track my performance and have it audited. It keeps me honest. This is really critical.

Unrelated observation, I notice a lot more gaming in the ES these past few days then in past. It makes it more difficult.

Quote from baggerlord:

In a few more words, can you explain what sets you apart from normal traders?
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Qualities of a Great Trader

These are the most important qualities for a great trader in my mind:

Balance: The ability to push oneself toward taking as many opportunities as possible without succumbing to gambling.
Toughness: The ability to preserver through hardship.
Facility/market read: Ability to understand market. Clarity of purpose. Internalization of methods.
Adaptability/Creativity: Ability to adapt and generate new ideas.
Synthesis: Ability to combine ideas and data from different sources.
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Not every great trader will have every quality to the same extent. A trader who is tougher but not as bright may experience larger equity swings but make a higher net profit. This is kinda how some of my systems work. They aren't the brightest blokes but they are tough.

I rely more on my skill then mental toughness. This produces a higher risk adjusted return. But, I have to keep pushing myself to maximize my net profits.
 
Quote from baggerlord:

You have just stated that you can't handle the pressure of making public calls because it upsets you. And yet you think you will perform exactly the same when real money is on the line. That is ridiculous.

Again, why not open a small oanda account and make real trades? Then you could at least show real world results.

Once again it looks like you are so afraid of your delusions being exposed as such that you are incapable of doing anything but write essays on your awesome ability.

Your opinion of your own ability is not based on facts or experiences. Facts and experiences are components of a place that I like to call Realityville. It is the opposite of Fantasyland. It is quite apparent you prefer to reside in Fantasyland. I assume it is because in Fantasyland you are the best in the world at trading and can call peaks and troughs with 100% accuracy. Your predictions are always correct. Realityville is less attractive because in that domain you are a papertrader with a brief and dissapointing real money experience that came dangerously close to proving you a loser before you shut it down.

Of course the big downside is that the Fantasybucks you are earning right now can't buy you a thing, including respect or backers.

So, are you ready to step into Realityville? It is a gamble of course. It is the only way you will earn real money, but it also could expose you as a sham. Here are some options I can think of since you always have an excuse ready on why you can't trade real money.

1. Oanda account. Any small amount will do.
2. Remote prop. 5k will get you 50k intraday and if you can call peaks with 100% accuracy you can scalp your way to a fortune very quickly.
3. Post live calls here. If they are as accurate as you claim you will pick up some backers no problem.

All 3 of these are compatible with a job. It will be even simpler if you live with your parents as I assume you do.
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Lucias!!! Wake up!!!

You haven't acknowledged baggerlord's post above-- he is dead on here!

What say you?

Your lack of any response here is very telling to say the least...

Enough of your non stop drivel -- enough!

Baggerlord has given you a prescription to take you to the next level-- the outcome remains to seen obviously-- but nonetheless--GET OFF YOUR LAZY ASS AND DO IT -- FEAR WILL GET YOU NOWHERE AND THIS SO CALLED SELF THERAPY OF YOURS POSTING HERE IS BS -- MOVE ON.
 
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