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My Path To Success
- Thread starter Lucias
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What happened to the 5 page essay? Please don't start cropping your rantings and ravings. They are entertaining sometimes.
Performance Notes
Coach here, take these notes and learn from em:
* Remember, if you're unsure then take those profits. Grab those profits.
* If you aren't willing to commit in a big way then don't wait to see if support level holds to cover. Cover!! Get out. Better set your limits first or ASAP. If it breaks then re-short.
* Know the time frame for your trade. Don't give a simple tape read play more weight then its worth. Keep your size in check.
* You can pick a PEAK 100% accurately. The TOP is undefined and different. You gotta be precise and know what you're trying to do.
* Look at recoding the interface for entering your orders. We can't have any more mistakes due to the software.
* Look at that 1218 level, you thought this could be the low for the year. When you see a level like that.. then its time to load.
* When the market makes a lower lower then it is primed to make a higher high.
* Be careful shorting. I don't want you giving back performance on shorts. Track those trades. You seen what a big loser crude was for you.
* Keep an eye on those vertical call spreads on crude. It may be near to peaking. Adding some longer term, low maintenance trades into the bucket may be a benefit. Worth investigation.
* If you're wrong and gave the trade a little room and have a window then take the window with a market!!! Don't set a higher limit order. Just get out.
* You're doing great... keep it up.
Coach here, take these notes and learn from em:
* Remember, if you're unsure then take those profits. Grab those profits.
* If you aren't willing to commit in a big way then don't wait to see if support level holds to cover. Cover!! Get out. Better set your limits first or ASAP. If it breaks then re-short.
* Know the time frame for your trade. Don't give a simple tape read play more weight then its worth. Keep your size in check.
* You can pick a PEAK 100% accurately. The TOP is undefined and different. You gotta be precise and know what you're trying to do.
* Look at recoding the interface for entering your orders. We can't have any more mistakes due to the software.
* Look at that 1218 level, you thought this could be the low for the year. When you see a level like that.. then its time to load.
* When the market makes a lower lower then it is primed to make a higher high.
* Be careful shorting. I don't want you giving back performance on shorts. Track those trades. You seen what a big loser crude was for you.
* Keep an eye on those vertical call spreads on crude. It may be near to peaking. Adding some longer term, low maintenance trades into the bucket may be a benefit. Worth investigation.
* If you're wrong and gave the trade a little room and have a window then take the window with a market!!! Don't set a higher limit order. Just get out.
* You're doing great... keep it up.
Lucias, you seem to be a very vocal critic of those who pander trading related products aka vendors - so good for you. Yet, you also seem to have been brainwashed by them and their pie-in-the-sky trading claims. $1000 a day for a retail trader on a small account is pure fantasy and unrealistic trading goals equates to trading failure.
@Kbaines
I agree with you. I'm trying to do $1,000 per day (on days I trade) on an 85k paper account. I dunno if I can do this or not. But, I've always said I could do great things if someone fund me.. So I think I *should* be able to do 1k per day (on days that I trade). If I trade 3 days per week then that's about an 169% return. I'd like to keep drawdown below 18%. So that's a 9x return to risk ratio.. anything above 4x will prove extremely difficult 1x to 4x is good.
I don't believe I have enough of an edge to do that currently though. The only way I can do it is to bet bigger when I'm more confident. A good example is that 1218 level which I identified as a possible low for the year. That's a level where I might could make 10k off trading at my best.
I'm not convinced I can do it without taking some higher risks.
I have trading systems I've built that can make between 5k to 10k per contract per year on about 10k to 15k. This is equivalent to 50% to 100% return. But even at that, let's take trading that with 85k right then I'd need to trade 8 contracts to make 80k and would be risking about 11% of the account per trade. That's too high!
This is my whole point that I"m starting to understand. If you can't make let's say 20k on an 10k account trading 1 contract then you can't make big money even with 25k or 50k especially if like me you'd like to reduce the risk. In other words, with 85k account then I'd only be comfortable trading this system with instead of 10k per contract -- say 15k to 25k per contract.
That's my point though.. let's look at this. If you can do 100% on 10k then that's only 10k per year. Let's say you have 50k then at 100% per year you're still only doing 50k per year!!! So even though we gave you 5x the account you're still not making good money. Let's up it to 70k then its 70k..
So to make big money on an 85k or 100k then you're going to have to return more then 100%. I don't have the edge to do that. My thought is that I might do it if I improve my edge and bet more when I'm confident..
That's my point though. Before trying to make a living trading a 5k or 10k account then maybe you should see if you can do it with even 80k or 100k first. If you can't do it with 85k then you can't do it with 25k for sure!
This is why I warn the people via broadcast message and warning disclaimer that if they follow me they are taking high risk because I'm trying to up my performance to see what I'm capable of doing.
My first goal was just to record my predictions. My second goal was just to be consistent profitable every month. My next goal was to return 30% at 1:1 risk ratio or better. And my new goal is to you know demonstrate to myself that I can do great things. This is going to be the hardest goal yet and very well may end in failure.
I agree with you. I'm trying to do $1,000 per day (on days I trade) on an 85k paper account. I dunno if I can do this or not. But, I've always said I could do great things if someone fund me.. So I think I *should* be able to do 1k per day (on days that I trade). If I trade 3 days per week then that's about an 169% return. I'd like to keep drawdown below 18%. So that's a 9x return to risk ratio.. anything above 4x will prove extremely difficult 1x to 4x is good.
I don't believe I have enough of an edge to do that currently though. The only way I can do it is to bet bigger when I'm more confident. A good example is that 1218 level which I identified as a possible low for the year. That's a level where I might could make 10k off trading at my best.
I'm not convinced I can do it without taking some higher risks.
I have trading systems I've built that can make between 5k to 10k per contract per year on about 10k to 15k. This is equivalent to 50% to 100% return. But even at that, let's take trading that with 85k right then I'd need to trade 8 contracts to make 80k and would be risking about 11% of the account per trade. That's too high!
This is my whole point that I"m starting to understand. If you can't make let's say 20k on an 10k account trading 1 contract then you can't make big money even with 25k or 50k especially if like me you'd like to reduce the risk. In other words, with 85k account then I'd only be comfortable trading this system with instead of 10k per contract -- say 15k to 25k per contract.
That's my point though.. let's look at this. If you can do 100% on 10k then that's only 10k per year. Let's say you have 50k then at 100% per year you're still only doing 50k per year!!! So even though we gave you 5x the account you're still not making good money. Let's up it to 70k then its 70k..
So to make big money on an 85k or 100k then you're going to have to return more then 100%. I don't have the edge to do that. My thought is that I might do it if I improve my edge and bet more when I'm confident..
That's my point though. Before trying to make a living trading a 5k or 10k account then maybe you should see if you can do it with even 80k or 100k first. If you can't do it with 85k then you can't do it with 25k for sure!
This is why I warn the people via broadcast message and warning disclaimer that if they follow me they are taking high risk because I'm trying to up my performance to see what I'm capable of doing.
My first goal was just to record my predictions. My second goal was just to be consistent profitable every month. My next goal was to return 30% at 1:1 risk ratio or better. And my new goal is to you know demonstrate to myself that I can do great things. This is going to be the hardest goal yet and very well may end in failure.
Quote from KBaines:
Lucias, you seem to be a very vocal critic of those who pander trading related products aka vendors - so good for you. Yet, you also seem to have been brainwashed by them and their pie-in-the-sky trading claims. $1000 a day for a retail trader on a small account is pure fantasy and unrealistic trading goals equates to trading failure.
Lucias,
I'm not going to talk down at you any longer because you have not lashed back the way I came at you. So I will be civil. I do want to talk about your last post where you went over numbers to trade for a living on a small account. I'm not sure how many sources of income you have and of course it's not my business but i am wondering If you have a day job and can you trade on the side. See this is how i started after finally getting "it" and traded profitably from there on.
I started with 8K in savings. My goal was $350-$500/day but if i only could make $100 based off of a missed opportunity or day was winding down i took it and a loss of $250/day. Of course as you see certain days are range bound and i did not trade those. Now i only traded one contract until i reached 14K at that point i would trade two contracts with higher expectations of Profit and i would move my $ stop to 430. Now i traded these either through scaling in or put them both on right away. the contracts i was trading required a margin of 2300 (4600 2) so i had to make sure to honor my stops and trade only great set ups not to be stopped out every time which would cause my account to deplete that i had to trade back at 1. I did this for a year while still working a 40/wk job. At the end of the year and 2 more add ons of contract size i had $63,452 (I know that number by heart because the statement is framed in my office next to my last losing year statement)
The middle of the second year i had passed 120K and i decided to quit my job and trade full time. I had very low overhead at the time about $3100/Monthly and I knew i could get a job again in the same field. That was in 2002.
I'm not here to bash or gloat any longer on you because people have disagreements about the way things are or should be and that's fine. In this entire diatribe I just wrote i am hoping you can take just a few things from this on your path to trade a larger accountâ
⢠Be patient, and collect your paychecks, C2 fees, and other income sources that you may have so you can at least have a fighting chance. I was ignorant for so long thinking I could take my two weeks paycheck and turn it into millions only to lose it time and time again, finally I wised up and just let it sit in a bank every two weeks and I worked on my methodology.
⢠If your can pull out even $200 a day in trading with a small account and have your losses be small, just like compound interest it adds up over time. So be patient.
⢠You have been doing this awhile getting let down by others not giving you funds, Have a market related job and trade on the side, then come back a year later after you have done well and stick the knife in them for not believing in you. I sense you are still angry about this let down and it somewhat affects your trading so release the anger.
⢠You may be the best at predicting markets but unfortunately youâre in a business that recognizes the best who are now managing billions, on the Forbes list, or they derive the majority of their income from trading and they have been profitable for more than just a few years. So start out small with your own funds and like MARTY SCHWARTZ you will attract capital.
⢠And lastly this may not be about the money for you as you have stated just the thrill of predicting markets as an intellectual endeavor, Thatâs fine you donât have to be a trader in order to be in the business there have been great market predictors or great newsletters back when that the publishers were not so great at trading. Not because they didnât believe in themselves Itâs just the way they were wired that caused their brain to override their original ideas. So I say go to a room of silence and really think what is it within the markets you want to do. Trading, Selling Indicators, Writing articles of market forecast, Ect.. the point is pick ONE for now and focus on it then move on to the others once you have more resources at your disposal.
Good Luckâ¦.
I'm not going to talk down at you any longer because you have not lashed back the way I came at you. So I will be civil. I do want to talk about your last post where you went over numbers to trade for a living on a small account. I'm not sure how many sources of income you have and of course it's not my business but i am wondering If you have a day job and can you trade on the side. See this is how i started after finally getting "it" and traded profitably from there on.
I started with 8K in savings. My goal was $350-$500/day but if i only could make $100 based off of a missed opportunity or day was winding down i took it and a loss of $250/day. Of course as you see certain days are range bound and i did not trade those. Now i only traded one contract until i reached 14K at that point i would trade two contracts with higher expectations of Profit and i would move my $ stop to 430. Now i traded these either through scaling in or put them both on right away. the contracts i was trading required a margin of 2300 (4600 2) so i had to make sure to honor my stops and trade only great set ups not to be stopped out every time which would cause my account to deplete that i had to trade back at 1. I did this for a year while still working a 40/wk job. At the end of the year and 2 more add ons of contract size i had $63,452 (I know that number by heart because the statement is framed in my office next to my last losing year statement)
The middle of the second year i had passed 120K and i decided to quit my job and trade full time. I had very low overhead at the time about $3100/Monthly and I knew i could get a job again in the same field. That was in 2002.
I'm not here to bash or gloat any longer on you because people have disagreements about the way things are or should be and that's fine. In this entire diatribe I just wrote i am hoping you can take just a few things from this on your path to trade a larger accountâ
⢠Be patient, and collect your paychecks, C2 fees, and other income sources that you may have so you can at least have a fighting chance. I was ignorant for so long thinking I could take my two weeks paycheck and turn it into millions only to lose it time and time again, finally I wised up and just let it sit in a bank every two weeks and I worked on my methodology.
⢠If your can pull out even $200 a day in trading with a small account and have your losses be small, just like compound interest it adds up over time. So be patient.
⢠You have been doing this awhile getting let down by others not giving you funds, Have a market related job and trade on the side, then come back a year later after you have done well and stick the knife in them for not believing in you. I sense you are still angry about this let down and it somewhat affects your trading so release the anger.
⢠You may be the best at predicting markets but unfortunately youâre in a business that recognizes the best who are now managing billions, on the Forbes list, or they derive the majority of their income from trading and they have been profitable for more than just a few years. So start out small with your own funds and like MARTY SCHWARTZ you will attract capital.
⢠And lastly this may not be about the money for you as you have stated just the thrill of predicting markets as an intellectual endeavor, Thatâs fine you donât have to be a trader in order to be in the business there have been great market predictors or great newsletters back when that the publishers were not so great at trading. Not because they didnât believe in themselves Itâs just the way they were wired that caused their brain to override their original ideas. So I say go to a room of silence and really think what is it within the markets you want to do. Trading, Selling Indicators, Writing articles of market forecast, Ect.. the point is pick ONE for now and focus on it then move on to the others once you have more resources at your disposal.
Good Luckâ¦.
You are all talk. Your one attempt with real money ended when you started approaching a net loss. Your sample size was too small to have any idea if you are a winner or not.
You apparently have all the time in the world to papertrade. I don't know how you manage that. I have a full time job and barely have time to swing trade. If you have the time to be a professional papertrader you certainly have the time to trade a small oanda account to at least trade with real money.
For all your vendor bashing, your only claim to fame is your collective2 history. That site has a great reputation for unrealistic results. Do yourself a favor and replicate those results with real money, even if it is just a small account. You will then be in a position to get some investments from friends on a small level.
Or better yet, instead of all the awesome posts proving you have that narcissistic personality disorder, why not just post some market calls? There are guys on here with lots of money and some that own or manage prop firms.
You apparently have all the time in the world to papertrade. I don't know how you manage that. I have a full time job and barely have time to swing trade. If you have the time to be a professional papertrader you certainly have the time to trade a small oanda account to at least trade with real money.
For all your vendor bashing, your only claim to fame is your collective2 history. That site has a great reputation for unrealistic results. Do yourself a favor and replicate those results with real money, even if it is just a small account. You will then be in a position to get some investments from friends on a small level.
Or better yet, instead of all the awesome posts proving you have that narcissistic personality disorder, why not just post some market calls? There are guys on here with lots of money and some that own or manage prop firms.
... why not just post some market calls? There are guys on here with lots of money and some that own or manage prop firms.
Just a few notes, I do have a subscriber who is taking my trades in real-time real money and if they continue to do that then in time it will reflect the real possibility of what is really possible. I use the C2 because it is the most accurate possible.
I very rarely call the market without risking something on it. I will risk my performance or something.
There are several reasons I won't make calls. First, I really value winning and if I make a call then I have to be proven right or wrong and until that time then I will be upset. Second, if I make a call then I have to risk something on it which means money or performance. Third, I like all my calls to be tracked as accurately as possible which is not possible in a forum format. So in essence, if I made a call then I'd have to go and place the trade on C2 anyway. I have no need or desire to prove anything to anyone. I'm way beyond that. Winning all the time for me is fairly normal.
Lucias,
Are you paper trading? I didn't read all the way through your whole journal (just the last two pages). Paper trades in my opinion are deceptive. I always do better on paper trades and there are times I think paper trading is too easy. Mostly because, I get better fills on paper trades. It always assumes that you will be able to buy in or sell in shares based on the last price. In reality, you may have too many to be filled so you can't get in or out of positions so that is a huge difference. I honestly think I have a lot to learn on the real deal. I wished that in paper trades, the system will hypothetically look for the amount of shares available out there and sell to or buy from you on paper instead of last trade price made. That would be a smart simulation system that would really benefit new traders. Has anyone else here do really well on paper trades but lose consistantly on the real thing?
Are you paper trading? I didn't read all the way through your whole journal (just the last two pages). Paper trades in my opinion are deceptive. I always do better on paper trades and there are times I think paper trading is too easy. Mostly because, I get better fills on paper trades. It always assumes that you will be able to buy in or sell in shares based on the last price. In reality, you may have too many to be filled so you can't get in or out of positions so that is a huge difference. I honestly think I have a lot to learn on the real deal. I wished that in paper trades, the system will hypothetically look for the amount of shares available out there and sell to or buy from you on paper instead of last trade price made. That would be a smart simulation system that would really benefit new traders. Has anyone else here do really well on paper trades but lose consistantly on the real thing?
I've did both. I also have, in some cases, subscribers who take my signals with real money trades and the fills are recorded. I trade the ES so there isn't a problem with fills. I enter on markets (usually) so fills aren't a problem either (and exit on limit). The fills are available for comparison purposes.
If you keep everything exactly the same there is very little difference. For limit fills, you can use an algorithm called "must exceed to fill" which works well for most contracts -- if you think that would be a problem. I believe Ninjatrader (and other platforms) use a realistic volume fill algorithm that looks at the volume on the queue and then calculates a fill time/probability. You can also use MIT orders which would work well too, if available.
The only reason you lose on paper trading going to real money if you're simulation is realistic is if you change something. It is true that many traders lose because they vary the stop sizes and risk from paper to real money.
I have a system that nets 100% per year with a 40 point stop. It nets only 50% per year with a stop in the 25 point range. It goes way down if the stop drops below 20 points. Most likely if you lost when you went to real money trading then it was due to changes in your trading style -either you failed to take a loss as quickly or set your stop closer or some other change.
The only other difference is that the frictions are typically higher when trading a small account if using higher leverage. All high risk professions use simulation. The highest risk types of scenarios are only available to be tested via simulation.
If you keep everything exactly the same there is very little difference. For limit fills, you can use an algorithm called "must exceed to fill" which works well for most contracts -- if you think that would be a problem. I believe Ninjatrader (and other platforms) use a realistic volume fill algorithm that looks at the volume on the queue and then calculates a fill time/probability. You can also use MIT orders which would work well too, if available.
The only reason you lose on paper trading going to real money if you're simulation is realistic is if you change something. It is true that many traders lose because they vary the stop sizes and risk from paper to real money.
I have a system that nets 100% per year with a 40 point stop. It nets only 50% per year with a stop in the 25 point range. It goes way down if the stop drops below 20 points. Most likely if you lost when you went to real money trading then it was due to changes in your trading style -either you failed to take a loss as quickly or set your stop closer or some other change.
The only other difference is that the frictions are typically higher when trading a small account if using higher leverage. All high risk professions use simulation. The highest risk types of scenarios are only available to be tested via simulation.
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